Thanks for reading the Her Hoop Stats newsletter. We’re excited to announce a new partnership with Hudl. Hudl’s industry-leading tools – Sportscode, Instat, and Fastmodel – elevate the preparation, performance, and player development of WNBA and NCAA teams. We appreciate their support and look forward to working with them to help bring more insight about the women’s game to you.

You can find me on Bluesky and HHS on Bluesky, Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, and Instagram.

The Seattle Storm can make their logo the eighth and last to be locked into 2025 WNBA Playoff matchup graphics with a win in tonight’s season finale (Photo credit: Chris Poss)

Seattle’s one of three teams wrapping up its regular season tonight, and there’s about as much at stake for the Storm as you could ask for in a finale. Not only do they need a win to secure a winning record, it would also clinch the last playoff spot and salvage a season split against the Valkyries, leaving open the possibility of Seattle landing the No. 6 or No. 7 seed. With a win tonight, all the Storm would need to move up to the No. 7 seed is for the Lynx to beat either the Fever (earlier tonight) or Valkyries (Thursday) in their regular-season finales. A loss tonight won’t eliminate the Storm — they would still make the playoffs if the Sparks lose either tonight or Thursday — but it would guarantee that Seattle or Los Angeles is the No. 8 seed at 22-22 while both the Fever and Valkyries have clinched winning records.

Seattle’s up-and-down season has hit a valley at the worst possible time with consecutive losses to Los Angeles and New York following wins in five of six games, including a decisive one at Minnesota to wrap up a five-game road trip. The Storm kept both losses relatively close on the scoreboard (six and eight points) but had a net rating of -9.4 points per 100 possessions against the Sparks (97.7 on offense compared to 107.1 on defense) and -16.1 against the Liberty (97.4 to 113.5). Those offensive ratings dropped Seattle to 10-21 (.323) when it has an offensive rating under the very high bar of 110 points per 100 possessions and 3-13 (.188) when held to an offensive rating under 98. The good news for Seattle is it’s 12-0 when it clears 110 points per 100 possessions. Dropping two-thirds of your games when you don’t torch the opponent is a tough way to get by, though.

The Storm and Valkyries haven’t played since the last game of the season’s first half, a nine-point Seattle home win in which neither team’s offensive rating cracked 90 points per 100 possessions. Nneka Ogwumike led all scorers with 22 points on 7-for-15 from the field in that game, the only player on either team to hit better than 40% from the field while attempting more than two shots. Given it was a Camp Day game at the end of a long grind into the All-Star break, I’m not sure it is the most instructive as to what to expect tonight. By that token, Dominique Malonga (12.2 points, 6.8 rebounds per game over her last 18) didn’t play for Seattle and Iliana Rupert (WNBA-best 44.7% from deep) didn’t play for Golden State, so tonight’s matchup should feature a distinct French flair that was missing in July. Even longer ago than that, Golden State won a pair of games against Seattle at Ballhalla in June, taking the Storm to the woodshed to the tune of a 27-point thrashing in the latter.

The Valkyries can clinch the No. 6 seed with a win in either of their final two regular season games, but they could also end up as the No. 8 seed with an 0-2 finish and an Indiana win tonight over Minnesota. A Seattle win and an Indiana loss tonight would guarantee the Valkyries finish no worse than the No. 7 seed, as they could finish no worse than tied with the Fever and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. No matter the seed, it will be the best for an expansion team in WNBA postseason history (because it’s the first) and Golden State will be the second expansion team to finish with a winning record. With a 2-0 finish to go into the postseason 25-19 (.568), the Valks can still squeak past the 1998 Detroit Shock (17-13, .567) for the best winning percentage in an expansion season.

Golden State’s coming off a hard-fought six-point loss to Minnesota in the regular-season Ballhalla finale, but it was so hard-fought that it had to give the Valkyries and their fans some hope that even the No. 8 seed and matchup with the Lynx wouldn’t guarantee a quick postseason exit. Golden State made Minnesota sweat till the very end on Saturday despite going just 9-for-35 (25.7%) from deep and letting the Lynx (12-for-30) make 40% of their own long-range attempts. The Valkyries outrebounded Minnesota 38-36and became the first team to hold the Lynx under 40% inside the arc (14-for-38, 36.8%) this season. It wasn’t the way they’d have hoped to finish up the first regular season at Ballhalla and they’d certainly rather get a win tonight or Thursday and lock up the No. 6 seed, but there has to be a psychological boost in knowing they can play with the WNBA’s current top cats.

The Sparks will look to stave off elimination with a second straight win, but they’ll also need a Seattle loss to keep their hopes alive. Should both of those things happen simultaneously in tonight’s late window, Los Angeles will go into Thursday’s regular-season finale at home against Las Vegas in a win-and-in situation. Even an 0-2 finish — the most likely result — would cap a remarkable turnaround for a team that started the season with a 5-13 (.278) record. With losses tonight and Thursday, the Sparks will have gone 15-11 (.577) after their dreadful start — only the Aces, Lynx, Dream and Mercury join the Sparks in having winning percentages better than .538 since the 4th of July and no one else could jump Los Angeles regardless of this week’s results. The Sparks just needed to see some fireworks to get going, which I suppose makes sense, but I hope Los Angeles takes this stretch as a sign that it has something good brewing. It just played more than half a season like a top-five team in the league.

The Mercury had a six-game win streak snapped on Saturday at Connecticut and have been eliminated from contention for the No. 2 seed as a result. They’ll also be out of the running for the No. 3 seed with another loss or another Aces win. That would guarantee they could do no better than tie either Las Vegas or Atlanta, which both own tiebreakers over Phoenix. With New York locked into the No. 5 seed, it’s a near-certainty that the Liberty and Mercury will square off in the first round of the playoffs, with Game 1 in Phoenix on Sunday. The Mercury are 3-0 against the Sparks this season, but all three games were decided by margins of eight or fewer points. The first two games came during Los Angeles’ 5-13 start, but those were actually closer (margins of three and five points) than the one in late August (which Phoenix won by eight). The closest of them was the only one in Phoenix all the way back on May 21, which makes sense given the Sparks have a better record on the road (11-10) than at home (9-12).