Whenever fantasy hockey season rolls around, there is a ton of content to absorb. 

It’s always great to have different viewpoints and perspectives to help inform the team-building process. But too much varying information can also cause paralysis by analysis. 

No two rankings or projections are perfectly alike, so sometimes it helps to analyze the most glaring differences. The idea isn’t to point out where one list is right or wrong, but to explore why there is such a gap. That’s what we’re here to do today: compare our cheat sheet to NHL.com’s top-200 fantasy players.

For consistency, the cheat sheet is set to the same categories noted in NHL.com’s introduction: goals, assists, power-play points, shots on goal, hits and blocked shots for skaters and wins, goals-against average, save percentage and shutouts for goalies. 

Where we’re lower

Valeri Nichushkin, Colorado Avalanche

NHL: 82 | The Athletic: 278

Nichushkin leads the way with the most significant gap in value between rankings. Last year’s scoring dip contributes to that, especially on the power play. The Avs have a new coach leading the power play, which could turn things around, but his usage is another question mark. While Nichushkin’s generally a PP1 staple, he shifted to the second unit in favor of Gabriel Landeskog late in Round 1 of the playoffs last spring. 

That power play deployment will be key, along with whether his five-on-five impacts can rebound. Unlike years past, he wasn’t a positive on Colorado’s expected goal generation. Maybe last year’s roster turnover had something to do with it. So the rebound potential is there, it just shouldn’t be bet on too early in the draft. 

Brad Marchand, Florida Panthers

NHL: 123 | The Athletic: 294

Marchand was a much better player than his regular-season scoring in Boston showed last year — his underlying numbers showed positives, but his surroundings held him back. His play in Florida, however, showed what he has left in the tank with Conn Smythe-caliber play. 

Marchand’s regular-season value for 2025-26 is probably somewhere between those two levels. 

Age is the elephant in the room for the 37-year-old. Matthew Tkachuk’s absence in the season’s first half (ish) is another curveball to navigate. Tkachuk’s absence could put more emphasis on Marchand in the matchup game, which he didn’t face as much in the playoffs as part of the third line. 

The bottom line? Don’t let last year’s playoffs inspire too early a pick for Marchand. If you miss out on him, there are other middle-six options to consider in Florida. 

Ivan Demidov, Montreal Canadiens

NHL: 112 | The Athletic: 250

We tend to exercise more caution with rising stars, like Demidov. Yes, his arrival was highly anticipated. And yes, he delivered very quickly in two regular-season games to kick off his NHL career. But having a successful rookie season isn’t the same as a successful fantasy season. 

The cheat sheet projects 21 goals and 53 points, which is respectable for a rookie. He can push the pace even more if he stays on the top power-play unit. The addition of Zachary Bolduc may add more second-line production. Still, compared to seasoned second-liners, it may not be enough for Rounds 7-10 (for those outside of dynasty leagues, at least). 

Pavel Dorofeyev, Vegas Golden Knights

NHL: 73 | The Athletic: 197

If Dorofeyev ends up riding shotgun with Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel on the top line, he will do a lot of offensive damage this year.

A top-loaded approach just hasn’t been Vegas’ style. Instead, he probably stays on Tomas Hertl’s wing on the second line — which doesn’t necessarily hurt his value — it’s where Dorofeyev had a breakout year due to shot volume and goal-scoring ability. However, expectations are different than if he had a first-line role.

Sam Bennett, Florida Panthers

NHL: 65 | The Athletic: 163

Playoff Bennett is an entirely different animal than regular-season Bennett — and the latter is the one managers will be drafting over the next couple of weeks. 

Bennett scored 22 points in 23 playoff games, accumulating 106 hits, translating to a rate of 78 points across an 82-game season. Remember, Bennett has only once reached the 50-point milestone in the regular season. On top of that, he’ll start the year without Tkachuk driving the second line. 

Bennett’s Conn Smythe-caliber play may give him more juice in the regular season, but not the same amount as Playoff Bennett.

Where we’re higher

Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators

NHL: 178 | The Athletic: 87 

It makes perfect sense why Saros’ (and Jeremy Swayman’s) value has dipped on NHL.com’s rankings: his play has trended down, and so has the quality of the team around him. 

Saros’ goals saved above expected (minus-4.68) and 0.895 save percentage were career lows last year. And his numbers weren’t super inspiring in 2023-24, either. 

But this is a big year for Saros. It’s Year 1 of his eight-year extension in Nashville. So, the pressure is on him to show that the Vezina-caliber goalie from seasons past is still there. He’s been a game-changer before, even when the team around him underwhelmed, so now is the time to show his ceiling.

Seth Jones, Florida Panthers

NHL: 153 | The Athletic: 62

Peripherals matter with category scoring, and Jones chips in across the board. The Panthers may not face the same shot volume as the Blackhawks, but Jones should still help in the blocks category. While he isn’t a high-end scorer, he should still contribute offensively. Jones took reps on the first power-play unit last spring with the Panthers, and there wasn’t an obvious offseason signing to replace him. So, while he didn’t thrive in that role in Chicago, he is playing alongside more high-octane forwards in Florida who can drive scoring. 

Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks

NHL: 138 | The Athletic: 49

Pettersson is one of the trickiest players to analyze. In 2022-23, he showed what a difference-maker he could be with a 102-point season, and he carried that energy through two-thirds (ish) of the 2023-24 season. But that’s where his game started trending down, before outright plummeting in 2024-25.

Some roster tweaks and a coaching change could help Pettersson get back on track, but there is no guarantee it will help. He’s played through numerous coaches, and the Canucks’ offseason was somewhat underwhelming. But it goes beyond his surroundings, and one bad stretch isn’t all holding Pettersson back.

The skill is still there. And the model accounts for more than just last year (it’s the past three years, weighed for recency and adjusted for age). So choosing the right spot to pick him depends on each manager’s belief in his talent translating at the pace of a true first-line center again. 

Adam Fox, New York Rangers

NHL: 102 | The Athletic: 16

Between a disappointing regular season in New York and the 4 Nations Face-Off, the perception of Fox’s game has shifted significantly over the past year. But even when factoring in categories like hitting, to which Fox doesn’t contribute much, he still ranks 16th by our cheat sheet. 

The Rangers’ 2024-25 season was chaotic and dismal. Fox alone couldn’t elevate a sinking ship, but he is still a No. 1 defenseman who quarterbacks a top power play. Expect the Rangers to stabilize under a new-look coaching staff, with Fox playing a key role. 

Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins

NHL: 164 | The Athletic: 103

The problem with a categories league is that some managers must look for specialists in the peripheral categories — shot blockers who don’t contribute much else, big hitters or players with limited value. 

McAvoy’s scoring may not be as prolific as other top defensemen, but his blend of contributions brings value, especially in a categories league (in a points league, we have him a bit lower at 129). 

The team around him may underwhelm, but McAvoy tends to share the ice with David Pastrnak at even strength, which bodes well for some scoring potential. And he could keep getting reps on PP1, unless Mason Lohrei officially takes over this year.  

Honorable mentionsStuart Skinner, Edmonton Oilers

NHL: — | The Athletic: 89

Lastly, we will take a quick look at two players who fell outside NHL.com’s top-200 overall. Skinner’s game is as chaotic as it gets. Managers are likely tired of dealing with his erratic results, which have led to him losing the starter’s net at times. But until Edmonton acquires a true No. 1, the net (mostly) belongs to Skinner — the quality of the team around him should help elevate his numbers enough from a fantasy context. 

Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL: — | The Athletic: 77

Rielly is a flawed No. 1 defenseman and doesn’t play a super physical game. But what he can add offensively outweighs that enough for consideration. His role on the Leafs’ top power-play unit is the key — Toronto ranked top-10 in expected and actual goal generation on the advantage last year. While the power play will look different without Marner, there is a lot of talent up front to maintain the production.

Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.

(Photo of Brad Marchand: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)