Even though the start of training camp and the 2025-26 NHL season is just around the corner, it still seems like there might be another trade or two to happen with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Will Erik Karlsson get moved? Will the Penguins try to capitalize on the value of Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust? Or will they keep them through a rebuild in the hopes they can still be a part of the next good Penguins team?
Those are all questions that need to be answered at some point over the next few weeks and months.
In the meantime, let’s take a look at what might be some realistic goals for some of those players this season in the event they do not get traded.
We continue our Penguins Over/Under series with a look at some of the Penguins’ veteran secondary players, including Rust, Rakell and Karlsson.
Rickard Rakell: Over/Under: 25.5 goals
Rakell was one of the Penguins’ biggest surprises, best players and one of their few bright spots during the 2024-25 season, scoring a career-high 35 goals with 70 total points in 81 games. It’s probably asking a lot to expect a 32-year-old forward to have back-to-back career years, so I would not anticipate him eclipsing the 35-goal mark.
But I don’t think it’s a stretch to assume he could flirt with 30 goals again, especially since he’s mostly been a really productive player since joining the Penguins. And especially if he gets top-line ice-time next to Sidney Crosby, a player he has had tremendous chemistry with.
Since joining the Penguins, Rakell has scored 82 goals 252 regular season games, averaging out to about 26.5 goals per 82 games played.
I would anticipate some regression this season, but even if he goes back down to his normal production level he should still be in the 25-goal range.
That is still an extremely productive and useful player.
Bryan Rust: Over/Under: 30.5 goals
Rust has been as stable and reliable as a player can be for the Penguins over the past 10 years.
Yeah. Bryan Rust has been here for over a decade. Crazy, isn’t it?
For his career he has averaged 26 goals per 82 games, but that number has dramatically increased in recent years and is up over 30 goals per 82 games over the past few years. The only thing that has consistently prevented him from reaching that mark (which he did finally reach this season) has been the fact he has never consistently played in enough games to get there. He has a lot of injury shortened seasons on his resume where he was well on his way to 30 goals until he missed more than 20 games.
As long as he stays healthy he should still be in that 25-30 goal range for the Penguins, and he should still be one of their best all-around players. Given his importance to the Penguins and Stanley Cup winning teams in 2015-16 and 2016-17 I feel like he’s closer to the core group than anything else, but I do think there is still a chance he could get traded at some point before his current contract expires.
Thomas Novak: Over/Under: 18.5 goals
Novak is a bit of a wild-card for me. I feel like the Penguins really like him a lot, and while his resume isn’t extremely extensive he has still proven himself as a viable NHL player. He’s talented, he’s averaged 20 goals per 82 games, but has never played enough games to get there. The Penguins only saw him for two games after acquiring him due to injury, so we’re still not really sure what to expect from him.
His actual goal totals during his full seasons in the NHL are 17 in 51 games, 18 in 71 games and 13 in 54 games.
Assuming he gets enough games, does 18.5 seem like a reasonable line to reach?
Erik Karlsson: Over/Under: 55.5 points
Karlsson’s time with the Penguins has been mostly underwhelming, and certainly disappointing given the expectations at the time of the trade for him. It also only seems to be a matter of when, and not if, he gets traded. But for as underwhelming and disappointing as his tenure has been, he is still a productive player offensively and is still capable of putting up big point totals.
He has topped the 53-point mark in each of the past two seasons and has remained a top-10 scorer on defense during 5-on-5 play. Assuming he stays healthy, and assuming he does not get traded, 50-points should be the minimum expectation for him.