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Kelsey Mitchell and the Fever face elimination in tonight’s Game 2 against the Atlanta Dream (Photo credit: Chris Poss)

A Fever season that began with championship expectations but quickly became defined by injuries could come to an end in the first of tonight’s two potential elimination games. Looking to end their season is a Dream squad that rolls in having won seven straight games and can advance to the semifinals for the first time since franchise GOAT Angel McCoughtry was on the floor.

The Fever’s 68 points in Game 1 were their fifth-fewest in a game this season, with two of the five times they were held under 70 points coming in Atlanta — they also scored a season-low 58 points there on June 10. Indiana fell to 4-14 (.222) when it’s held to an offensive rating of 100.0 points per 100 possessions or worse, compared to 20-7 (.741) when it has an offensive rating higher than 100.0. The good news for the Fever tonight is they’ve been on the right side of 100.0 points per 100 possessions in 17 of their 22 home games as opposed to only 10 of 23 on the road. The Fever are looking for their first postseason win in over 3,600 days since Game 4 of the 2015 WNBA Finals (which they lost to the Lynx in five games).

Atlanta snapped its own six-game playoff losing streak in Game 1, a skid that started with Games 4 and 5 of the 2018 semifinals and also included first-round sweeps in 2023 and 2024. The seven-game win streak dating back to the regular season is tied for the second-longest in Dream history and one game shy of tying the 2018 team’s record of eight in a row. While I’m sure the Fever are happy to be back home, the Dream have had no trouble taking their show on the road. Atlanta went 14-8 (.636) on the road in the regular season, tied with Minnesota for the best mark in the league, and it had an offensive rating better than 100.0 points per 100 possessions in a league-leading 16 of 22 road games.

Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard each scored 20 points for the Dream in Game 1, but both struggled from the field as did most of their teammates. Excluding Naz Hillmon and Brionna Jones, the Dream made just a hair over 30% as a team.

On some level, Karl Smesko must’ve been happy to get away with a win in a playoff game that saw Gray (5-for-16 from the field) and Howard (6-for-17) combine to make just a third of their 33 attempts. The Dream won’t want to rely on that formula, but there’s no reason to believe they’ll need to. Gray hit at least 40% of her field-goal attempts in 26 of 42 appearances in the regular season (Atlanta went 22-4) while Howard came into the playoffs hot with 22.7 points per game on 51% from the field in her final six regular-season games. She’s also averaging 22.0 points per game in her first five career playoff games, tied with Breanna Stewart for the second-highest average in league history among players who’ve played in at least two playoff games. Only Cynthia Cooper (23.3) has Howard and Stewart beat. The player in fourth will be revealed momentarily.

Hillmon (16 points) and Jones (12) each went 5-for-7 from the field in Game 1 while the rest of the Dream made just 17-of-56 (30.4%). If you also take out the two star guards, everyone else combined for 12 points on 5-for-23 (21.7%) from the field. There’s been a lot made of Brittney Griner’s move to the bench upon her return from injury, and that’s understandable given BG’s pedigree, but the more notable thing that happened for the Dream is that Hillmon stayed in the starting five. She averaged 9.6 points, 8.1 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game in 17 starts for Atlanta down the stretch after exclusively coming off the bench previously. A four-year veteran who hasn’t missed a game since her rookie season and holds the franchise record for consecutive games played, Hillmon scored at least 15 points for the seventh time in her career on Sunday. Four of those seven games have come since she moved into the starting five and six have come since July 1.

Indiana would’ve loved to have a problem like its 20-point scorers struggling from the field in Game 1. Instead, the Fever’s issue was that nobody other than Kelsey Mitchell was scoring at all.

Mitchell scored 27 points on 9-for-18 from the field on Sunday, her second time scoring over 20 points in three playoff games in her career, while she’s scored at least 17 in all three. It’s obviously a very small sample, but Mitchell is the only player in WNBA history to score at least 17 points in all of her postseason appearances. Her 21.7 points per playoff game put her directly behind Cooper, Stewart and Howard in fourth on the playoff scoring average list. Just for the sake of remembering some hoopers, the next five players on that list: McCoughtry and Napheesa Collier are tied (21.3), followed by Diana Taurasi (20.4), A’ja Wilson (20.0) and Maya Moore (19.2).

No Fever player other than Mitchell scored more than 10 points in Sunday’s loss. That total came from Odyssey Sims, who joined the team on a hardship deal in August, and I don’t mean to come down too hard on a team beset by more than its fair share of injuries. That said, Indiana was always planning on getting significant contributions from Aliyah Boston (8 points, 3-for-9 from the field), Natasha Howard (5 points, 2-for-7) and Lexie Hull (9 points, 3-for-13), and if the season is to be extended, that trio will need to score more than 22 points on 8-for-29 (27.6%) from the field. To her credit, Boston added 12 rebounds and 5 assists with just 1 turnover. One more bucket would’ve given her the first 10/10/5 playoff game by a Fever player not named Tamika Catchings (who had four).