Atlanta Dream
Bright spots:
Immense player development growth: Allisha Gray has continued to grow into a role 7, Naz Hillmon became a shooter, and Maya Caldwell is comfortably a rotation piece
The Karl Smesko hire paid off, and his system works
Concerns:
Rhyne Howard has not improved offensively in three years
Underwhelming exit from playoffs thanks to poor halfcourt offense
Given where Atlanta was under Tanisha Wright, 2025 was nothing short of a big step forward. Every player looked better under Karl Smesko than they had under the previous coaching staff, and even though the Brionna Jones-Brittney Griner pairing didn’t work at all, the roster provided enough flexibility for Smesko to adapt. The player development outside of Rhyne Howard has been strong, and the Big A continues to be a strong draw for free agents.
Howard’s growth flatlining does mean that the Dream lack another player of at least Allisha Gray’s caliber needed to win a title. Free agency this winter will be key.
Hope Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Golden State
Bright spots:
Natalie Nakase is a title-caliber coach
Six rotation players under team control next year
Extraordinary player development within one season
Concerns:
Need to prove the ability to draw premier free agents
It has become cliché to note that Golden State’s inaugural season was historic for an expansion franchise. But it’s for good reason: Nyanin Ohemaa assembled a roster of expansion draftees that far exceeded expectations, the Valkyries played like one of the best-coached teams in the league night in and night out, and players developed even as the season went on. It is hard to demonstrate more reasons for optimism than that.
There are only two concerns about Golden State I can think of. There is the possibility that several players and staff were simply all having career years at the same time, so expectations for the likes of Ohemaa, Natalie Nakase, Veronica Burton and others may be too high. That’s unlikely, but it’s certainly possible.
The Valkyries also need to prove that they can be a free agency destination. With the No. 8 pick in the upcoming draft, they probably aren’t going to find a player that truly elevates their ceiling in the 2025 draft, and will need a dreadful 2026 to have a shot at the likes of even Madison Booker or Mikaylah Williams. There’s no reason to think, with its location and staff and facilities, that Golden State won’t be a major player this winter. But that is something it needs to prove first.
Hope Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
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New York
Bright spots:
Concerns:
Jonquel Jones played like someone with one foot out the door
Ionescu hasn’t hit pull-up or contested 3-pointers in two years
Bench was essentially unplayable in the postseason
No first-round pick
New York has as interesting a crossroads this winter as anyone. On the one hand, having Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu say they’re returning while having the entire wing rotation under tram control for 2026 is as good a situation as any team in the W has.
On the other hand, Jonquel Jones was consistently underwhelming down the stretch, frequently failing to show up in the ways that she did during the 2024 playoffs. And if she had, the Liberty would not have been in position to play a winner-take-all first-round game on the road, let alone take two ugly losses to Phoenix.
With how Breanna Stewart’s offense has gradually declined, if Sabrina Ionescu keeps shooting the way she has over the past two seasons — 26.9% on pull-up threes, 27.7% on contested catch-and-shoot threes — New York is going to need someone who can reliably be a primary scorer. Will Jones be able to find any consistency if she returns? And who is the other guard the Liberty will target to play next to Ionescu?
Those are the important questions off the bat. If those can be answered — and given how New York has drawn free agents lately, there’s every reason to think they can be — having a bench that contributes in the regular season but can’t play in September becomes less of an issue.
Hope Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐½
Seattle Storm
Bright spots:
Concerns:
How does Jordan Horston look coming off an ACL tear?
Two rotation players under contract, including Horston
With Golden State and Atlanta improving, is Seattle still a draw for top free agents?
Everything is relative to expectations. And for Seattle, the expectations were fairly high, especially after trading for Brittney Sykes. The results, between getting into the playoffs by the skin of its teeth, did not live up.
The question “where do they go from here” is stronger for the Storm than anyone. Because of all the teams on this list, they have the fewest rotation pieces returning, but they have real draft capital thanks to Los Angeles. But given recent results and the emergence of other franchises as newly attractive landing spots for top free agents, can Seattle still be that same kind of draw? Even if the likes of Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins choose to re-up, will it be the same coaching staff and front office orchestrating 2026?
Hope Rating: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆