The first race of the Round of 12 takes place at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (NHMS) for 301 laps around the track affectionately known as the Magic Mile.
NHMS is a one-mile flat track with variable banking of two to seven degrees, giving it some raceability in multiple grooves. Add in the softer tire Goodyear is bringing, which showed just shy of one second of falloff over a 45-lap run in practice, and we should be in for a fun race.
With 301 laps, we’ll definitely need 1-2 dominators at minimum, and possibly three to take down tournaments.
As always, my practice FLAGS data will be highly useful, and it correlated strongly with qualifying as well, so we can feel quite good about practice data.
In addition, be sure to check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
These projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the Mobile 1 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Mobile 1 301 DFS Core Picks
Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.
Ryan Blaney ($10,500): While Joey Logano laid down the fastest qualifying lap and starts on pole, Ryan Blaney remains the driver to beat between the two Team Penkse teammates, with Blaney starting alongside Logano on the front row.
Blaney was a clear No. 1 in practice FLAGS, and he should have the car to beat Sunday, which means I want him in cash games and in a good chunk of tournament lineups.
Chase Elliott ($9200): The next driver that’s a clear value is Elliott, who starts 27th but ran well in practice with the fourth overall group-adjusted FLAGS ranking.
Elliott’s one qualifying lap was one of the few exceptions to the correlation between practice and qualifying, and he should definitely race better than he starts, giving him a ton of place differential.
Elliott was also a borderline top-five car the last time we were at a shorter flat track, just a couple of weeks ago at Gateway.
Austin Cindric ($7500): Cindric makes up the third Team Penske car in the trio, and he starts the farthest back in 22nd position, but I like him Sunday.
After all, his two teammates start on the front row and are first and fifth in practice FLAGS, while Cindric himself was eighth in FLAGS, so he should have a strong car.
Additionally, shorter flat tracks are one of his stronger track types, including a win at Gateway last year, so count on him moving forward throughout this race at a decent price tag.
Mobile 1 301 DFS Tournament Picks
Dominators: As I talked about, we’ll need 1-3 dominators, so here’s my list of likely domination.
Blaney
Logano
William Byron
Christopher Bell
Denny Hamlin
Kyle Larson
Josh Berry
I think it’d be really surprising to see a dominator outside of that group, and yes, I’d use Josh Berry close to that 20 percent range my model gives him as optimal. He was No. 2 in FLAGS and this is a great track and track type for him.
If I had to flag (no pun intended) plant one driver from this group in tournament formats, I’d take Kyle Larson. His record here is stellar, and he ranked sixth in FLAGS, ahead of Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron.
Larson starts 16th, and with so much focus on Blaney, Logano, Hamlin, Bell and Byron, he could be the under-rostered driver from this group.
Fast, Cheap Guys from Practice Group 1: There’s five notable drivers in the $5100-$6600 range who cracked the top 14 in group-adjusted FLAGS. They are:
Shane van Gisbergen (FLAGS 9th, starts 10th)
A.J. Allmendinger (FLAGS 10th, starts 12th)
Michael McDowell (FLAGS 12th, starts 11th)
Justin Haley (FLAGS 13th, starts 21st)
Noah Gragson (FLAGS 14th, starts 33rd)
Gragson is the clear value play at $5700 while starting 33rd, giving him plenty of place-differential potential.
But don’t count out the other four drivers.
The other four project to be a combined 41% optimal, but they project for a total usage of just 29.7%, with all four expected to be rostered 2-4% less than optimal.
They aren’t super heavy plays, but you’ll want to be slightly overweight on them to the field if you are a mass multi-lineup player.
The Rest: I suggest using my projections heavily this week, because it’s setting up to be quite a chalky week with big names and drivers all dominating the Perfect% category, opening up value on the cheap tier as I talked about above.
That makes the $7000-$8900 salary drivers relatively scarce in value, but there are a few pretty clear plays if you look at the projections and compare Perfect% to expected ownership from my model.
Pictured: Ryan Blaney
Photo credit: Joe Puetz, Imagn