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HOUSTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 21: J.P. Crawford #3 of the Seattle Mariners congratulates Julio Rodriguez #44 after defeating the Houston Astros at Daikin Park on September 21, 2025 in Houston, Texas. (Tim Warner / Getty Images)
SEATTLE – After a three-game sweep of the Houston Astros this weekend, the Seattle Mariners are on the verge of winning the AL West for the first time in over 20 years.
Following a 5-1 road trip to Kansas City and Houston, the Mariners return home for the final six games of the regular season with the opportunity to clinch the division title and a first-round bye into the AL Division Series all on the plate. It would be the first division crown for the Mariners since their 116-win season of 2001.
Here are the scenarios ahead for Seattle in the final week of the regular season.
How the Mariners can clinch a playoff berth.
Seattle can clinch a playoff berth as soon as Tuesday night. If the Mariners beat the Colorado Rockies, and the New York Yankees beat the Chicago White Sox, that will guarantee Seattle at least a Wild Card spot.
How the Mariners can clinch the AL West.
The magic number for the AL West is down to three for Seattle, meaning any combination of Mariners wins or Astros losses totaling three over the final six days of the season will give the Mariners the AL West title.
The sweep over the Astros this weekend not only gave the Mariners a three-game lead in the standings, it also clinched the season-series tiebreaker between the two teams. Seattle won eight of the 13 games played against the Astros this season. Effectively, it gives the Mariners a four-game lead in the division race.
If the Mariners beat the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday, and the Astros lose to the Athletics, it would make it a de-facto five-game lead with five games left to play. At that point, any Seattle win or Astros loss would seal the division title for the Mariners.
That would lock Seattle into either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. The No. 2 seed earns a bye into the ALDS, while the No. 3 seed has to play in the Wild Card round against the No. 6 seed.
How the Mariners can clinch the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.
The sweep in Houston didn’t just vault the Mariners into a clear first place in the AL West, it also put Seattle into the driver’s seat for a first-round bye into the ALDS.
The Detroit Tigers have collapsed in September, losing nine of their last 10 games. Having led the AL Central by 11.5 games in late August, the Tigers are now just one game ahead of the Cleveland Guardians for the division lead.
That freefall, combined with Seattle’s surge, have put the Mariners two-games up on the Tigers and Guardians for the No. 2 seed and the first-round bye. The Mariners hold the tiebreaker over both teams, effectively giving them a three-game cushion in the race for the No. 2 seed.
The Mariners can clinch the No. 2 seed as early as Thursday. If Seattle sweeps an awful Colorado Rockies team over the next three days, the Tigers have to lose one (or more) games to the Guardians in their head-to-head series to give Seattle the first-round bye.
It is still possible for the Mariners to earn the top-seed in the American League, but it’s quite unlikely. The Toronto Blue Jays have the best record in the AL at 90-66 with Seattle three games back. The Blue Jays also hold the tiebreaker over the Mariners with a 4-2 mark against Seattle this season. So in the inverse of the other races, Seattle is effectively four games back with six to play in the race for the No. 1 seed.
If the Mariners earn a first-round bye, they will be off until October 4 for the first game of the ALDS against the winner of the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup (currently No. 3 Detroit and No. 6 Cleveland).
The Yankees are the most unlikely ALDS opponent as they have a firm lead on the No. 4 seed. But any other team in the race between the Tigers, Guardians, Astros, and Boston Red Sox would be reasonably likely. One of those four teams would also miss the playoffs altogether.
Seattle is 4-2 against Detroit, 4-2 against Cleveland, 8-5 against Houston, and 3-3 against Boston this season.
The Source: Information in this story came from FOX 13 Seattle reporting.
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