Tradition in Major League Baseball dictates that teams celebrate milestone victories with booze-soaked clubhouse parties. And on Sept. 1, it surely seemed safe for the Detroit Tigers to begin ordering champagne.
Even after a loss to start September, the Tigers were given a 99.8 percent chance that day to win the American League’s Central division by FanGraphs. Detroit’s odds of winning the division would remain at 99.0 percent or higher for the next two weeks, too. With the postseason beginning at month’s end, it appeared likely the Tigers could earn one of the two first-round playoff byes that go to the two division winners with the best records.
Yet beginning Sept. 11, the Tigers lost 11 of their next 12 games to begin a spectacular free-fall — one that could ultimately set MLB history.
A loss Wednesday dropped the Tigers out of first place in the AL Central for the first time in 155 days. In the standings, they were looking up to Cleveland — the same Guardians who, on July 6, were 15 1/2 games behind the Tigers in the standings. At that point, only three American League teams had worse records than Cleveland.
“It’s painful,” Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters Wednesday.
“I’m having a hard time coming up with words, obviously. I know that’s not always that acceptable or the norm, but what I’m seeing out of our team is not normal, but unfortunately, it’s our reality.”
On Thursday, the Tigers (86-73) moved back into a tie for first by beating Cleveland (86-73). Whether the cathartic 4-2 win stops their slide, or acts as only temporary relief, remains to be seen before Sunday’s end of the regular season.
As recently as Sept. 5, Cleveland was still 11 games behind the Tigers. But it has won 17 of its last 20 games through Thursday.
Since MLB created divisions in 1969, the 1978 Yankees (14 games back), 2012 Athletics (13 games), 1995 Mariners (13 games), 2006 Twins (12 1/2 games) and 1973 Mets (12 1/2 games) have completed the largest comebacks to win a division title, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, via MLB.com.
Including the pre-division era, the record for largest comeback belongs to the 1914 Braves (15 games back).
If the Guardians win the Central, they will have surpassed even the Braves’ 111-year-old record. Their torrid stretch has taken place even though two of their best pitchers, closer Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz, have been on non-disciplinary leave since July as the league undergoes a sports-betting investigation that remains ongoing.
Cleveland outfielder Steven Kwan told reporters Wednesday that trying to jumpstart such a comeback had appeared “daunting” earlier this summer, as the team weighed whether to be a seller at the trade deadline.
“But it’s one of those things where ignorance is bliss,” Kwan said. “You keep your head down and don’t worry about it. If you get caught up in those things early on, you’re going to be doomed.”
Before Sept. 5, Cleveland owned the league’s second-worst on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), second-worst slugging percentage and was dead last in on-base percentage. Only three teams had scored fewer runs. Its pitching staff, meanwhile, ranked firmly in the middle in earned runs allowed and in the bottom third in how often it allowed runners on base.
Since the teams’ fortunes diverged Sept. 5, the Guardians’ hitting didn’t undergo an earth-shattering rejuvenation. It didn’t need to — because no team has had better pitching. In that span they allowed allowed a league-low 34 earned runs. (Detroit, over the same span, has allowed 81.)
Detroit hasn’t helped itself by forgetting how to score. Amid its slide over the last 13 games, it has scored more than three runs just four times.
Under the current MLB postseason format, six teams apiece from both the American and National leagues earn a spot in the postseason. The two division winners with the best records earn a first-round bye, and the four remaining teams play a best-of-three series where all three games are hosted by the higher seed.
Detroit still appears headed for the postseason. ESPN estimated its odds of qualifying at 70.6 percent through Thursday, when it was still five games ahead of Texas, the first team currently projected to be left out of the AL postseason.
But if the Tigers make it, they will have to shake off a month of historically bad baseball and refocus on the postseason. After being overtaken in the standings Wednesday for the first time since the spring, they were struggling to process a slide that could go down in history.
“That’s some of the best baseball I’ve seen in September, just in what they’ve been able to do,” Tigers pitcher Jack Flaherty told reporters Wednesday. “They’ve done their job, and we haven’t done ours.”