PHOENIX — The Arizona Diamondbacks have three games remaining in the 2025 regular season, and they probably have to win all three in order to push for the third and final National League Wild Card spot.
The D-backs (80-79) close the campaign at Petco Park against the San Diego Padres, starting on Friday night.
Their path to the postseason is simple: The D-backs have to be two games better than both the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds this weekend.
The Mets at 82-77 hold the third NL Wild Card spot after taking two of three games from the Chicago Cubs.
The Reds at 81-78 trail the Mets by one game but own the head-to-head tiebreaker against both New York and Arizona.
A three-way tie favors the Reds.
So, the Diamondbacks make the playoffs if:
Arizona finishes 3-0 in San Diego, New York goes 1-2 or worse at the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati goes 1-2 or worse at the Milwaukee Brewers
Arizona finishes 2-1 in San Diego and both the Mets and Reds get swept
Think of Arizona as having a tragic number of two. Any combination of two D-backs losses or wins from the Reds and Mets ends this admirable post-deadline run.
The earliest the Diamondbacks can be eliminated is on Friday with a loss plus a win by either the Reds or Mets. If the D-backs win Friday’s game, they at least live to fight another day.
The odds are long, as FanGraphs bumped them down to 2.1% entering Friday. Sweeping the Padres is a must.
“We know where we stand, and we gotta go out and we gotta fight our way out of that corner,” manager Torey Lovullo said on Thursday. “The Padres are a good team, so I can sit here and tell you we gotta sweep them. We do. I think that’s the mindset. We’ve gotta win every game we can, and we’ve got three left.”
Diamondbacks-Padres probables
Friday: RHP Zac Gallen (4.70 ERA) vs. RHP Yu Darvish (5.51)
Saturday: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (4.91) vs. RHP Michael King (3.57)
Sunday: RHP Brandon Pfaadt (5.00) vs. TBA
The Padres have one carrot left in front of them after losing out on a National League West crown to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
San Diego trails Chicago by two games for the top Wild Card spot, which determines home-field advantage for their Wild Card Series starting on Tuesday. How the Padres managed their regulars and pitchers could present the D-backs with an advantage.
The Diamondbacks are 5-5 this season against the Padres. They pushed Gallen, who has a 2.82 ERA in 10 starts since the trade deadline, back a day to pitch in the opener.
Mets-Marlins probables
RHP Brandon Sproat (3.94) vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara (5.48)
TBA vs. RHP Eury Perez (4.20)
TBA vs. Edward Cabrera (3.66)
The Marlins were just mathematically eliminated from Wild Card contention on Thursday, but their rotation this weekend is challenging. Alcantara is similar to Gallen in the sense that he was in trade rumors after a disappointing first half, stayed put and has been much better down the stretch. The 2022 Cy Young winner has a 2.70 ERA over his last seven starts.
Perez has not allowed a run over his last two starts (albeit in nine total innings), while Cabrera is making his second start since a three-week injured list stint (sprained elbow).
The Mets have lost four of their last five games against the Marlins despite having a payroll approximately five times higher.
New York is in the driver’s seat, but it will need to exercise some past demons to clinch a spot.
Reds-Brewers probables
RHP Zack Littell (3.86) vs. RHP Quinn Priester (3.25)
LHP Andrew Abbott (2.80) vs. TBA
RHP Brady Singer (3.86) vs. TBA
The last T to cross for the Brewers is clinching the top seed in the NL, which they can do with a win or a Phillies loss.
Milwaukee is 19-0 in Priester’s last 19 starts, and the D-backs need that win streak to continue.
The Brewers have won five of their last seven games against the Reds, but it’s hard to imagine they will play this series like any other with the postseason to prepare for. Perhaps waiting out the Wild Card Series is incentive to keep starting position players fresh? With 28-man rosters instead of 40, teams cannot rest their entire starting lineups anymore, as well.
