“Go woke, go broke” is a movie catchphrase du jour, loved by rightwing culture warriors, who take aim at mainstream films judged to have adopted progressive values, and therefore are worthy of boycott and complaints. Films as varied as The Marvels, Charlie’s Angels, Ghostbusters (the 2016 reboot) and Pixar’s Elio have been attacked for their perceived commitment to inclusiveness and diversity, and in some cases their box office revenue appears to have been affected as a result.

But is it actually the case? Film data analyst Stephen Follows, an adviser to Guinness World Records and author of The Horror Movie Report, has published research on how audiences actually respond to “woke-adjacent” content in current cinema. First presented at the Zurich film festival on Saturday, Follows’ research suggests that there is no blanket rule for the success or otherwise of progressive-themed mainstream cinema, and adds that for some genres – horror, sports and music films in particular – diverse casting and identity-driven stories can have a substantially positive effect on commercial success.

Conversely, however, Follows concludes that big-budget blockbusters face considerable risks if they indulge in “heavy-handed politics”, incurring a backlash if “audiences feel political messaging overrides story or character”. Moreover, weakening well-established characters or narratives – in films such as the James Bond series – carries what Follows describes as a “massive financial risk”. He claims: “Rewriting legacy canon or characters is one of the strongest negative signals for commercial performance.”

Follows’ main tool for identifying audience reaction to themes and content – applied to around 4m publicly available comments – is text embedding, a machine-learning process that converts text into numerical values, which makes specific terms easier to identify. Follows then compared the strength of comments around individual ideas to profitability estimates to assess commercial impact.

After analysing responses to more than 10,000 films, Follows concluded there was no consistent pattern to whether a film’s progressive themes harmed its box office. “Problems … are linked to execution,” he said. “Heavy-handed political messaging, clumsy canon changes, or anachronistic dialogue reduce audience satisfaction and profitability.”

‘Identity narrative’ … Taron Egerton as Elton John and Richard Madden as John Reid in Rocketman. Photograph: Gavin Bond/Paramount/Kobal/REX/Shutterstock

Follows added that “horror audiences, who are younger on average, are more open to reinvention and less resistant to changes”. Citing relatively recent films such as Candyman, the 2018 reboot of Halloween and Evil Dead Rise, he said: “Identity-driven perspectives, diverse casting, and reimagined canon often boost appeal by adding novelty and raising stakes.”

In sports and music categories, Follows suggests that a number of films, including Creed III, Rocketman and A Star Is Born, had their commercial performance strengthened by “identity narratives” and “inclusive themes”.

The biggest risks, however, are faced by long-running big-budget franchises such as James Bond, which is now being overhauled after being bought by Amazon MGM, with a new director and screenwriter (Denis Villeneuve and Steven Knight respectively). A search is also under way for a new lead actor after Daniel Craig’s retirement from the role.

According to Follows, departing from “core canon” can carry serious financial consequences. “Audiences react poorly when identity-driven changes are seen as imposed rather than motivated by character or story. The risks multiply when several shifts occur at once. A change to Bond’s race, gender, or nationality on its own would already be financially risky, but stacking multiple changes compounds the danger.”

He adds: “[It] represents a high-stakes gamble with billions in potential revenue.”