One of the worst errors in any decision-making process is to overthink to the point that you end up undermining your original judgment.
I’ve learned the hard way not to second-guess my gut instincts.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the defending World Series champions, and they opened the season as an obvious favourite to repeat this year at FanDuel.
A lot can change over the course of a 162-game regular season – just ask Toronto Blue Jays fans.
However, one thing that didn’t change is the fact that the Dodgers are one of the most talented and complete teams in the majors, even if their odds to repeat as the World Series champions climbed a bit as they went from the favourite to the third choice to win it all at FanDuel.
So, when I was asked for my pick to win the World Series during an appearance on Campbell vs Gallo on TSN690 on Tuesday morning, I relayed the same sentiment I shared with them at the start of the season.
The Dodgers are the best bet to win the World Series.
I also told them I thought LA would live up to its billing as a significant favourite for Game 1 of its NL Wild Card series against the Cincinnati Reds.
So, when the Dodgers hit a franchise postseason record-tying five home runs in a 10-5 win over Cincinnati last night, I wasn’t exactly surprised.
Shohei Ohtani got the party started with his second career leadoff home run in the postseason – the first of two on the night.
Teoscar Hernandez got in on the action with a pair of home runs as well, as he and Ohtani became the fifth duo in MLB history to both have a multi-home run game.
LA remains the second choice to win the World Series at FanDuel behind the Philadelphia Phillies (+450).
Blue Jays fans might hold it against me, but at this point it’s fair to say I’d be surprised if one of the Dodgers, Phillies, or Seattle Mariners didn’t win the World Series, although I’m sticking with LA as my pick to win it all.
The Dodgers should finish off their series against the Reds as a -270 moneyline favourite for Game 2 tonight.
Meanwhile, Toronto baseball fans continue to wait for their opponent with the club holding an intrasquad game during its bye week later today.
In the meantime, FanDuel and the TSN Betting team continue to count down to NHL Futures Day coming up this Friday October 3rd, 2025.
We also turned our attention to Week 4 in the NFL with some major breaking news out of Ohio this morning.
Change in Cleveland: Browns are benching veteran QB Joe Flacco in favor of rookie QB Dillon Gabriel, per sources. The Browns were informed of the change this morning.
Gabriel’s first NFL start comes Sunday in London vs. the Vikings. pic.twitter.com/lUV1W5RQob
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 1, 2025
The Cleveland Browns have benched Joe Flacco in favour of rookie third round pick Dillon Gabriel ahead of their game against the Minnesota Vikings in London, England.
The spread for that game is still Vikings -3.5 at FanDuel, although that number has climbed to 4.5 at some books.
Speaking of line moves, the Baltimore Ravens have gone from a 9.5-point favourite against the Houston Texans on the lookahead line to a 1.5-point underdog at FanDuel.
It’s the biggest move in any NFL game this season.
The Ravens have been the NFL’s biggest disappointment through four weeks and now they won’t have their MVP quarterback available to play this weekend due to injury.
Is it time for Baltimore fans to push the panic button?
I’ll go ahead and hit it for them with some alarming numbers to consider in this edition of Morning Coffee for Wednesday October 1st, 2025.
Is It Time To Hit The Panic Button In Baltimore?
The Ravens entered the season as a co-favourite to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel.
Following a 1-3 start, Baltimore’s odds have climbed from +700 to +1000 as the sixth choice to win it all at FanDuel.
The Ravens are just the third pre-season Super Bowl favourite to start 1-3 or worst through four games since the NFL expanded to a 16-game schedule in 1978.
Since 2007, 13 different NFL teams started the season 1-3 after entering the year with a double-digit win total.
All 13 of those teams failed to make the playoffs.
Now the spotlight is on Baltimore.
As bad as they looked in losses to the Detroit Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs, Ravens fans were optimistic that they would bounce back this week against an opponent that has also underachieved in the Houston Texans.
After all, Lamar Jackson is 5-0 all-time against Houston, winning those five contests by an average of 24 points per games.
However, we got word on Tuesday that Jackson won’t be available for Baltimore this week, meaning Cooper Rush will be the starting quarterback.
An offence designed around Jackson’s strengths will look a lot different with Rush under centre this Sunday.
While the spread had already moved from Ravens -9.5 to Ravens -3.5 ahead of Tuesday’s news, the QB switch pushed the line five more points to Houston -1.5.
Interestingly, Baltimore remains the favourite to win the AFC North at -150 at FanDuel.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, which are 3-1, are the second choice to win the division at +190.
The Cincinnati Bengals, which have lost back-to-back games to the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos following an injury to quarterback Joe Burrow, are a distant third choice to win the AFC North at +1200.
The Browns are a +1700 longshot after they made the move to the rookie Gabriel at quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are still considered far more likely to make than miss the postseason at FanDuel.
Baltimore is -350 to make and +265 to mis the playoffs.
I’m tempted to bet the latter number for several reasons.
I’ll pass on Ravens to miss the playoffs +235 but…
• Lamar Jackson, Nnamdi Madubuike, Marlon Humphrey, Kyle Van Noy, Roquan Smith, Ronnie Stanley and Nate Wiggins are all OUT 🩹
• D has allowed 35+ points in 3 of 4 games – matching the franchise record for a SEASON 🤯 pic.twitter.com/nIFuPIio2c
— Domenic Padula (@Domenic_Padula) September 30, 2025
First, I’ve already highlighted that the previous 13 teams that started 1-3 after entering the season with a double-digit win total all failed to make the playoffs.
Since 1990, 86.1 per cent of all teams that started 1-3 ultimately fell short of reaching the postseason.
Second, the Ravens defence looks like a shell of the unit that was considered one of the deepest and most talented in the NFL through four weeks.
Baltimore has allowed 35 or more points in all three losses – matching the franchise record for the most times they have allowed 35 or more points in an entire season.
While it’s easy to point to the players, this unit is now a full year removed from having current Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike McDonald as its defensive coordinator.
If coaching is a problem, it will be a much harder fix in season as the injuries continue to pile up for the Ravens.
Those injuries are the third reason I’m looking to fade Baltimore this morning.
In case you missed it, we got this update from NFL Network National Insider Ian Rapoport this morning.
The fact that Jackson could reportedly try to play this week is fascinating, especially considering the potential risk to aggravate the existing injury.
In addition to Jackson, the Ravens will be without tackle Ronnie Stanley and five starters on defence in Nnamdi Madubuike, Marlon Humphrey, Roquan Smith, and Kyle Van Noy.
Considering how bad Baltimore’s defence has looked, it’s hard to imagine them improving without so many key players in their lineup.
The biggest question on my mind this morning is whether the Ravens can overcome all these issues and secure a win over the visiting Texans on Sunday.
If they win, the worst-case scenario is that Baltimore will enter its Week 7 bye with a 2-4 record hoping to get some healthy bodies back in time for a Week 8 clash with the visiting Chicago Bears.
If the Ravens beat Houston with or without Jackson, it’s hard to imagine them losing to the Bears at home or the Miami Dolphins on the road with Jackson starting at quarterback in Week 9.
However, if Baltimore loses back-to-back games against the Texans and Los Angeles Rams, they will fall to 1-5 entering the bye week.
Thanks in part to the Burrow injury and Cleveland moving on from Flacco after an ugly start, there’s still a path for a 1-5 Ravens team to make the playoffs in the AFC.
AFC North QB landscape:
🏈Bengals: Joe Burrow out at least three months with turf toe.
🏈Ravens: Lamar Jackson’s hamstring injury means Cooper Rush could start Sunday.
🏈Browns: Benched Joe Flacco for Dillon Gabriel.
🏈Steelers: Aaron Rodgers off to a 3-1 start, now on a bye. pic.twitter.com/wgQJXr04VO
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 1, 2025
Baltimore has two games against the Bengals, one game against the Browns, plus games against the Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New York Jets, and New England Patriots.
The Ravens will also play the Steelers twice in December, in addition to a trip to Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers in Week 17.
There’s a scenario in which Baltimore drops its next two games, then rallies to finish with nine or more wins.
If they can find a way to beat the Texans with Rush at quarterback this weekend, that outlook improves significantly at 2-3.
As tempted as I am to fade the Ravens at +265 to miss the playoffs, a very favourable remaining schedule from Week 8 through Week 13 has kept me from locking it in.
Do you still believe Baltimore will make the playoffs?
Or should we be fading the Ravens the rest of the way?
Hit me up @Domenic_Padula on X to share your thoughts.
We’re on to Week 5 of the NFL regular season tomorrow.
Have a great day, everyone!