Matchday 2 of the 2025-26 Champions League provided us with the season’s first taste of jeopardy.

The marquee fixture ended with Paris Saint-Germain winning 2-1 at Barcelona, Liverpool were shocked by Galatasaray, and Eric Dier and Monaco stopped Manchester City from making it two victories out of two.

All of this and more has led to changes across The Athletic’s projections, which are powered by Opta data. Throughout the tournament, we will use these to understand each club’s probability of league-phase elimination, direct qualification to the last 16 via a top-eight finish, entry into the play-off round by placing ninth to 24th, and winning the whole thing in the final in Budapest on May 30. The link to the projections is below.

Here, we break down how the contenders performed and look at the key risers and fallers from Matchday 2.

Match of the week

Juventus were involved in a thriller for the second consecutive week, this time at Villarreal’s Estadio de la Ceramica.

While not quite the goalfest from Matchday 1 against Borussia Dortmund, this game had its thrills with 30 shots, 10 of which were on target.

Georges Mikautadze tripped before getting back on his feet to score Villarreal’s 18th-minute opener from a Nicolas Pepe assist. Santi Comesana then saw a shot tipped onto the post by Mattia Perin before Arnau Tenas reacted brilliantly to deny Weston McKennie.

Tenas then made a meal of Federico Gatti’s bicycle kick to allow Juventus to equalise early in the second half, moments after Jonathan David missed an open goal that left Juventus boss Igor Tudor speechless. By the 56th minute, Juventus were ahead after Francisco Conceicao blasted home following a misplaced pass from Dani Parejo.

David then hit the crossbar before Renato Veiga equalised for Villarreal with a 90th-minute header, unleashing a massive celebration against the team he played for as recently as May.

The draw left each team in effectively the same state as before the game, and their fixture lists going forward will give them both enough confidence to be in the knockout stage play-offs mix at the very least.

How did the contenders do?

PSG’s last-gasp win over Barcelona, courtesy of Goncalo Ramos, lifted them to a projection of second for the league phase and for winning the whole thing. Their chances of a top-eight finish received a boost from 61 per cent to 80 per cent. Meanwhile, their title probability has increased to 14 per cent (up from 12 per cent).

Hansi Flick’s side find themselves in the same state (three points) as last season when they lost to Monaco on Matchday 1 and defeated Young Boys on Matchday 2. Barcelona slipped to seventh in the projections (from third), with their top-eight chances falling from 71 per cent to 55 per cent.

But with two of their three toughest fixtures on paper now out the way and with games against Olympiacos and Club Brugge up next, expect them to make amends.

Liverpool’s defeat at Galatasaray saw their title chances drop from 20 to 15 per cent, with their top-eight chances falling to 59 per cent too (from 84). The performance in itself will be more concerning, but you would expect the 2024-25 league-phase winners to figure it out. The fixture list doesn’t help, though, with Real Madrid visiting on Matchday 4 and a trip to Inter on Matchday 6.

Arsenal benefited from Liverpool’s defeat to move top of the projections, with a predicted 19 points in the league phase and their chances of being overall winners are now up to 18 per cent, making them the favourites to triumph in Budapest in May. Mikel Arteta’s side will likely face a few hiccups with Atletico Madrid up next and games against Bayern Munich and Inter later on, but they have laid a solid platform to build on.

Bayern Munich have arguably been Europe’s most impressive team since August, and routed Pafos 5-1 to improve their title-winning probability to 10 per cent (from six). They have a 69 per cent chance of finishing in the top eight too, up from 50 per cent after their win over Chelsea.

Bayern were allotted the hardest draw of the league phase by Opta’s fixture difficulty metric and still have to take on PSG and Arsenal. But their other theoretically difficult fixtures against PSV and Sporting CP look less daunting when Harry Kane (14 goals and three assists in seven matches across the Bundesliga and Champions League in 2025-26) is in this kind of form.

Inter have started with games against two of the worst teams so far in Ajax and Slavia Prague, keeping their title odds at four per cent, but there have already been reminders of their 2024-25 campaign, when they reached the final. Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram have scored a double apiece, while they have allowed just three shots on target across 180 minutes. Union Saint-Gilloise and Kairat, who are the Italian side’s next two opponents, will give them the chance to extend their good start before matches against Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, Arsenal and Dortmund.

Real Madrid were fortunate at times against Marseille in their opening game but they were far too good for Kairat, winning 5-0 to boost their top-eight chances to 62 per cent. Their title chances are still only at five per cent and tougher tests await before Christmas against Juventus, Liverpool and Manchester City.

Manchester City will be disappointed with throwing away two points in Monaco, with Erling Haaland, who scored twice, and Pep Guardiola admitting that improvements were necessary. Other results have seen their title odds rise from nine per cent to 10, but their top-eight chances suffered a drop from 70 per cent to 61.

Facing Villarreal and Bayer Leverkusen in two of their next three matches should give them a chance to avoid falling into the kind of hole they found themselves in midway through last season’s Champions League league phase.

Biggest movers

Qarabag have had an impressive rise in The Athletic’s projections. Starting in 35th place, they moved to 29th by winning at Benfica. A 2-0 home win over Copenhagen on Matchday 2 has seen them soar further to 20th, with their chance of elimination down to 25 per cent. They now have a 68 per cent chance of making the knockout stage play-offs and a seven per cent chance of finishing in the top eight.

At the other end of the spectrum, four-time European Cup/Champions League winners Ajax have had a poor start in Europe. Their Champions League campaign has begun with defeats to Inter and Marseille, with no goals scored. The 4-0 hammering in France has seen Ajax’s chance of elimination before the knockout stage rise to 85 per cent. The going doesn’t get any easier with Chelsea up next.

Athletic Club are in a similar predicament. The 4-1 defeat by Borussia Dortmund followed a 2-0 home loss to Arsenal, propelling their league-phase elimination odds to 79 per cent from 54. They are followed by Copenhagen, who are also without a point after two matches, and have a 76 per cent probability of finishing outside the top 24.

All of their chances of being eliminated are greater than that of Pafos (67 per cent) as the Cypriot side were handed the easiest league-phase draw according to Opta, with matches against Kairat and Slavia Prague to come.

Union Saint-Gilloise are experiencing the highs and lows of this Champions League format, too. A 4-0 hammering at the hands of Newcastle United has seen them fall from 11th after Matchday 1 to 21st in our projections now. They still have a 59 per cent chance of making the knockout stage play-offs, however.

Galatasaray received a healthy boost following victory over Liverpool, moving from 31st after a 5-1 Matchday 1 loss to Eintracht Frankfurt to 19th in our projections. Their chances of making the knockout stage play-offs got boosted to 62 per cent from 35, but life does not get much easier with Monaco, Atletico Madrid and Manchester City to come.

The chasing pack

Borussia Dortmund registered a convincing win over Athletic Club, making it eight goals scored from two matches. Their odds of directly qualifying for the round of 16 have improved to 32 per cent from 23 per cent before Matchday 1. But Dortmund’s toughest tests are yet to come, with Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Inter among their remaining opponents.

Chelsea rebounded from a 3-1 defeat to Bayern on Matchday 1 by picking up their first win by beating Benfica —  now managed by Jose Mourinho — 1-0 at home. Their odds of finishing in the top eight remain at 37 per cent, and matches against Barcelona and Napoli will be crucial to them doing so.

Napoli had to thank Manchester on Matchday 2 as former City player Kevin De Bruyne assisted United loanee Rasmus Hojlund twice to lift them to a 2-1 win over Sporting CP. Their odds of a top-eight finish now stand at 27 per cent (up from 17), while their chances of league-phase elimination have dropped to nine per cent (from 21).

Tottenham rallied to draw 2-2 with Bodo/Glimt as they navigate the first testing period of the Thomas Frank era. Their chances of directly qualifying for the round of 16 took a hit, dropping from 40 per cent to 29 per cent. Away games against Monaco and PSG, either side of a home match against Copenhagen, mean they don’t have much respite before Slavia Prague visit on Matchday 6.

Atletico Madrid continued their recent goal romp, making it 13 goals in their last three matches by thrashing Eintracht Frankfurt 5-1 two weeks after the German side had beaten Galatasaray by the same scoreline.

The win saw Atletico’s league-phase elimination odds more than halve from 31 per cent to 15. But having the sixth-toughest draw, with Arsenal up next, means their chances of finishing in the top eight remain relatively low at 18 per cent.

Eddie Howe will hope Newcastle’s 4-0 thumping of USG is the first sign of their new-look front line gelling, with Nick Woltemade, Anthony Gordon (two penalties) and Harvey Barnes all on target.

The win more than doubled their top-eight chances to 29 per cent (from 13). Games against Benfica and Athletic Club should help them continue to progress, with their toughest fixture, at home to PSG, only on Matchday 8.

(Photo: Nigel French/Sportsphoto/Allstar via Getty Images)