News from Washington halted the 2025 IPO market just as it was taking off. Again.
The US “government shutdown” has effectively closed the IPO market since the SEC can’t review filings or approve pricings.
The SEC says its skeleton crew won’t touch IPOs. However, nothing’s certain. Weeks into the last shutdown in 2018-2019, mounting pressure caused the agency to dedicate some resources to IPO approvals.
October is usually Q4’s busiest month, but the longer this drags on, the more deals get pushed back to Nov.–Jan.
Other than that, market conditions are still ideal. Issuers want to go public, and investors want to buy IPOs. Several notable new deals filed: robo-advisor Wealthfront, Jennifer Garner’s baby food brand Once Upon a Farm, and electric aircraft equipment maker BETA Technologies.
More immediately, the IPO market still has a bit of gas in the tank: Two deals priced this past week, with two more set for the week ahead.
Priced
Fermi (Nasdaq: FRMI): The AI-dedicated power plant developer listed at a $14 billion market cap and popped +55%, before backpedaling on day 2. Without revenue, Fermi should mostly trade on AI sentiment until it starts reporting construction milestones and/or tenant agreements.
Neptune Insurance (NYSE: NP): The flood insurance firm ended Friday with a +52% return from offer, much of which occurred after the initial pop. As I said last week, it’s a well-run business in an attractive market with a tech edge.
Upcoming
Two PE-backed names with solid cash flow had their IPO filings declared effective right before the shutdown, and will trade on Thursday.
Alliance Laundry (NYSE: ALH): It’s not a household name, but Alliance is by far the largest supplier of commercial washing machines (laundromats, hotels, hospitals, etc.).
Phoenix Education (NYSE: PXED): Apollo-backed Phoenix operates the for-profit University of Phoenix, whose strongest selling point may be its proposed valuation at 5x trailing EBITDA and 10x P/E.
IPO Index Winners & Losers
The Renaissance IPO Index moved up +0.7% this week, as the 50-day moving average continued to provide support, while the S&P 500 gained +1.1%. Precision medicine play Tempus AI was the IPO index’s top performer, rallying +16.8% alongside several AI companies. The week’s loser, marketing tech platform Klaviyo, traded off -18.3%.
P.S. Our AI piece is still getting a lot interest, so don’t be left behind,
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The Renaissance IPO Index returned 0.7% last week vs. 1.1% for the S&P 500.