We’re starting to see a major shakeup when it comes to 2026 NFL Draft futures odds at top top sportsbooks now that we’re through Week 6 of the college football season. Three of the four favorites to go No. 1 overall were way further down the board when the season began, while many of the presumed preseason favorites have seen massive slides thanks to their play this year. 

There are 14 players with +4000 or shorter odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to go No. 1 overall, and we’re going to break down some of the biggest names and movers on the board with Week 6 of the college football season wrapped up.

No. 1 pick odds for 2026 NFL Draft

Current No. 1 overall pick odds at FanDuel (as of Monday, Oct. 6):

The top dogIndiana QB Fernando Mendoza, +340

Mendoza and the Hoosiers were idle this week after defeating Iowa last week, and all eyes will be on this star quarterback as he heads Indiana against Oregon in a top-10 tilt next weekend in Eugene. 

Mendoza, a California transfer, has made an Indiana program that made the College Football Playoff last year even more dangerous this year with 16 passing touchdowns in five games to go along with 1,208 passing yards and a 73% completion rate. 

The star quarterback has passed his two biggest tests of the year — Illinois and Iowa — with flying colors, but now he must lead the Hoosiers against a Ducks team that appears to be among the nation’s elite.

Biggest risersOregon QB Dante Moore, +470

The Ducks were also idle this week ahead of their massive showdown with Indiana next weekend so the last time we saw Moore, he was leading a double-overtime win at Penn State. That win doesn’t look quite as great now after the Nittany Lions’ shocking loss at UCLA, but Moore was great in that game like he’s been all year long. The former starter at UCLA, Moore is completing nearly 75% of his passes for 1,210 yards and 14 passing scores this season.

Moore was over +4000 to go No. 1 overall for most of the year and was +2500 last week. Now, he’s +470, the third-shortest odds at FanDuel.

Alabama QB Ty Simpson, +650

Another quarterback who’s been picking up steam lately is Simpson from Alabama. The first-year starter has had as good of a two-week stretch as anyone in America, leading the Tide to a road win over Georgia before toppling a ranked Vanderbilt team at home. 

Simpson tossed two scores against Georgia and completed 74% of his passes for 340 yards and a pair of scores against Vandy. He now leads the SEC in passing yards with 1,478, and he has 13 touchdowns to just one interception along with two rushing scores.

Simpson, like Moore, was more of a longshot to go first overall heading into last weekend, but after being +2500 last week, he’s now +650, the fourth-shortest odds at FanDuel.

Massive sliderPenn State QB Drew Allar, +4000

It was supposed to be the year for Penn State. All the pieces, especially Allar, were back after a very good 2024 campaign that saw the Nittany Lions win a College Football Playoff game. 

Penn State lost at home in the whiteout game against Oregon. It was a frustrating loss for the Nittany Lions, who looked lost offensively early but surged late to force double overtime. That was a good Oregon team they lost to, though. This weekend, however, Penn State went to Los Angeles as a massive favorite and dropped the ball to a winless UCLA side in a 42-37 defeat. 

Allar was more good than great against a poor Bruins team, passing for 200 yards and rushing for 78 more without a turnover. The Penn State defense is largely at fault for this loss, but it’s another example of why it’s so hard to buy into the Nittany Lions as a true contender under James Franklin and with Allar at quarterback.

Allar has physical tools coaches dream about as he’s 6-foot-5 and nearly 240 pounds with a cannon of an arm and good mobility, but it feels like he’s yet to click at the college level and that there should be another gear to his game. He’s dropped on the FanDuel odds board, too, going from one of the favorites to go first overall to +2200 last week to +4000 this week.