After years of speculation, Connor McDavid agreed to re-sign with the Edmonton Oilers on Monday, the day before the 2025-26 NHL season opens.
The terms might have been shocking for many: a two-year deal with a $12.5 million average annual value beginning in 2026-27 — $4.5 million less than the AAV Kirill Kaprizov recently re-signed for with the Minnesota Wild.
Were NHL insiders surprised? What was their reaction to the deal? Here are Chris Johnston and Pierre LeBrun’s first thoughts.
Johnston: If we learned anything about McDavid during the long, thoughtful process that culminated with Monday’s signing, it’s this: McDavid is truly a man of his word.
“I have every intention to win in Edmonton,” he said, again and again, even though the situation left the only NHL team he’s known a touch unsure of exactly where things were headed.
There can be no questioning that fact after McDavid started the 2025-26 season off in Oil Country with a major bang, agreeing to a contract that carries the same AAV as his previous deal, which was signed in July 2017.
Forget for a moment that we’re currently in a rising salary cap environment — one that’s bound to see the NHL’s top players bring in considerably more dollars than they had previously. Let’s underline the fact that McDavid decided to lower the AAV on his second contract to $12.5 million from an agreed-upon number north of $13 million back then, and then doubled down on that salary range with this third contract.
The only reason for a player to even consider doing such a thing is to ensure his front office has enough cap space available to put the right pieces around him while trying to assemble a Stanley Cup-caliber outfit.
That approach worked for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in the Pittsburgh Penguins’ glory years. The Boston Bruins teams of that era also adhered to their own internal cap while contending perennially.
However, McDavid’s selflessness comes with no guarantees. The Oilers have been as close as you can be to the top of the mountain, dropping the past two Stanley Cup Finals to the Florida Panthers, but his reticence about the aging team’s ability to stay at the peak is and was understandable.
There’s a lot of ongoing work to be done, and McDavid has done his part to ensure that general manager Stan Bowman has some additional breathing room to execute his plan. Next year’s salary cap ceiling is tentatively set to hit $104 million — and it could be higher — which means that McDavid will account for roughly 12 percent of the cap.
NHL rules dictate that he could have demanded a salary north of $20 million had he waited to sign this contract in summer 2026, but he did the Oilers a major solid by handling his business the way he did now.
LeBrun: Absolutely, Chris. There is no way to understate this: This is one of the greatest bargains in NHL history. The best player in the world could have asked for the maximum allowed under the rules. The Oilers had zero leverage, other than a tight cap situation. His decision to sign for zero raise on his current contract speaks to the only thing he cares about: winning a Stanley Cup.
As one veteran NHL agent (not McDavid’s) texted me after the signing was made official: “He wants to win at all costs, and he wants to make sure that if they don’t win, he does not want to feel guilty because he took extra money. I understand where he’s coming from. This is a legendary player that has to win the Cup.”
As impactful as Kaprizov’s record-setting deal was last week, putting a $17 million salary on the board for other agents of elite players to chase, McDavid’s extension will likely have very little impact from an agent’s perspective — because in unison they will point out that this is a one-of-one situation. It’s also why I don’t think players or agents will begrudge No. 97 for not taking more. Everyone gets it. He wants to win so bad. He wants the Oilers to have as much cap flexibility as possible over the next three years.
Now, I can certainly see some NHL front offices holding up McDavid’s extension in future negotiations with their own top-end talent and making the argument that the negotiating player should likewise take less to help the team win. As Chris wrote, that’s just like Crosby and the Penguins and the Bruins’ heyday.
This entire cap culture versus rising salaries in the escalating cap environment of the next four to five years will be fascinating to watch play out.
That McDavid signed a two-year deal is not surprising at all. A short-term deal was always the leading option if he indeed did sign.
“Connor could have commanded 20 percent of the cap on a long-term commitment, but instead chose a short-term, discounted deal to try to win within the team’s window of opportunity,” another veteran agent said in the immediate aftermath. “Now the pressure is fully on the Oilers to establish they can still be a Cup contender going forward. They also likely receive an extra $15 million of cap room (below what McDavid could have received) to try to get the job done. A very strategic bridge contract for a perennial MVP of the league to try and win before deciding what’s best long term.
“He wasn’t ready to make a long-term commitment, and he also wants to be certain the team is set up to be a long-term contender before he does.”
Chris, I would like your take on this, too. I thought McDavid was very transparent all along as he took his time deciding how to proceed. I also think his camp, led by agent Judd Moldaver, deserves props for how the market in Edmonton was conditioned weeks ago for what may or may not happen. That is to say, a year ago, had you suggested to Oilers fans that No. 97 would only sign a two-year extension, there might have been outrage. But now that Oilers fans have been made to realize that McDavid was truly going through all his options, one of which was not signing at all, my guess is they’ll take a two-year deal at a bargain salary all day long.
Johnston: That brings us to another important part of this deal: The term.
While McDavid ensured there will be an appropriate amount of urgency in Edmonton for the coming seasons, he left himself an escape hatch if anything goes sideways. You’d have to think the Oilers will need clarity on his long-term plans come summer 2027 and might be forced to consider a trade at that point if he’s not of a mind to sign an extension.
Let’s view this as two more guaranteed cracks at the Stanley Cup for him in Edmonton, with the potential for a third swing in 2027-28 listed as “TBD.”
Either way, McDavid is now positioned to reach unrestricted free agency on July 1, 2028 — the same day as Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews, among others — and he’ll still be just 31 years old when/if he gets there.
Still in his prime, you’d think.
It’s not unreasonable to view that window as a golden opportunity for McDavid to reclaim some of the money he left on the table with this contract.
There are those around the league who believe the NHL’s salary cap could climb to $120 million by that point. If that happens, McDavid’s next deal could plausibly surge beyond $20 million per season.
As we get closer to that date, we’d be wise to listen closely to what McDavid has to say about his situation. He’ll probably drop plenty of crumbs about where he’s leaning, as he did in this instance. McDavid met questions about his future head-on at the Oilers postmortem in June, at the Canadian Olympic orientation camp in August and after the captain’s skates got going in Edmonton in early September.
He repeatedly said that he wanted to take his time to work through his decision methodically while keeping his focus on bringing the Stanley Cup back to Edmonton.
Then he backed up those words with his actions.