The official 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security beneficiaries still has yet to be announced.
Forecasts for the upcoming COLA, however, have many people concerned.
MarketWatch reports how experts currently project the COLA raise in 2026 to be around 2.7 or 2.8 percent. This shows an average raise of 2.6 percent over the past two decades or so.
However, one big point of concern — as pointed out by The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) — is inflation.
“Inflation is substantially higher than our model predicated at the beginning of the year,” the TSCL explains via report. “In January 2025, our model predicted that inflation would cool, and the COLA would come in at 2.1 percent.
“Instead, the prediction steadily ticked upward throughout the year as the Trump administration implemented economic policy changes, including aggressive tariff polices that some experts say have the potential to increase inflation.”
“In the last couple of years, it’s increasingly been brought up by our clients,” told financial adviser and managing partner at Cornerstone Financial Services, Daniel Milan, to MarketWatch. “Inflation is eating into every dollar more, no matter what.
“It’s very specific to needs, not wants. Food and healthcare is a need, not a want, and we’ve seen high inflation in those areas.”
How well this COLA benefits Social Security recipients is also dependent upon by state: The Motley Fool predicts that retirees in states such as New Jersey and Delaware will be getting the largest raises next year. Pennsylvania, however, was not included amongst the top 10 in this regard.
“Seniors across America are holding their breath as we wait for the official COLA announcement in October,” said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton via release.
“Our research shows that about 39 percent of seniors depend on their benefits for all their income, so the COLA announcement has a direct effect on their quality of life.”
The official COLA is expected to be announced Oct. 15. However, the current government shutdown might delay its announcement.
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