Just two weeks removed from the last 1.5-mile track at Kansas, the NASCAR cup heads to another one, this time the sister track to Kansas in Las Vegas.
Last time at Las Vegas, my practice FLAGS data was super predictive of race speed, so I’ll be relying heavily on it this week, in addition to track history, recent form, and similar track history.
Additionally, you can check out my NASCAR projections in the NASCAR Models on FantasyLabs, complete with floor, ceiling, median, and ownership projections.
My projections, along with Stephen Young’s from RotoGrinders, are available in our new NASCAR DFS package. You can read more about what the package entails here.
Let’s not skip the best part — my Perfect% metric — a metric that tells you how often certain racers appear in the optimal lineup when running 10,000 race simulations.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
So, without further ado, here’s my strategy guide and NASCAR DFS picks for the South Point 400 at Kansas Speedway.
South Point 400 DraftKings DFS Core Picks
Instead of calling them cash-game picks, I’ll call them core picks, as these are picks I like in all formats. However, it’s important to note that very often core picks tend to go over-rostered in tournaments, so while they should still be used plenty, it may be prudent to sometimes go underweight on these drivers if you think they’ll be significantly over-rostered.
William Byron ($10,000): Byron had the best car in practice FLAGS, but he’s priced as only the sixth-most expensive driver on DraftKings.
He’s always been strong at Las Vegas, and this weekend should be no exception, especially starting from the third row in sixth.
Josh Berry ($7100): Berry didn’t look amazing in practice, and he fires off 29th for the race, but the last time the series was at Vegas, Berry was fast enough to hang in and around the top 10 before a strategy call late handed him the race win.
Berry should be quick enough to move forward on race day at a relatively modest price tag.
Carson Hocevar ($7000): Hocevar was very strong in the first practice group, ranking second in FLAGS in that group and ninth overall.
The Spire Motorsports cars have been good at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, and Hocevar in particular has been strong at Las Vegas in speed despite not having the finishes to show for it, and similar is true for Kansas.
That could keep his usage down a bit, if people are too results-oriented instead of focusing on speed.
Ross Chastain ($9000): This is a spot where you need to ignore my model and use some knowledge.
My model blends in several things, yet somehow Chastain ended up as the 11th-best driver in my simulations, which wouldn’t be enough in a lot of cases to make him optimal.
However, I think he’ll put up a ton of fastest laps and work his way through the field as the car that was far and away the best car in the first practice group.
Las Vegas has also been a great track for him, with finishes of 2, 3, 4, 5, 5, 7, and 12 in the Next Gen era.
Aside from that 12th-place finish, the other finishes would likely be good enough to get him in or near the optimal lineup.
South Point 400 DraftKings DFS Tournament Picks
A Second (or Third) Dominator: With 267 laps scheduled, this is likely to be a 1-3 dominator race. Aside from Byron, here’s my most likely dominators, in order:
Denny Hamlin
Kyle Larson
Christopher Bell
Chase Briscoe
Chase Elliott
Tyler Reddick
Bubba Wallace
Ross Chastain
As you can tell, this race is a bit wide open, but that shouldn’t surprise us after the wild finish we had at Kansas.
Chris Buescher ($8500): With a lot of focus on the dominators and place-differential drivers, Buescher is going to be overlooked in tournaments.
I have him projected to be rostered in less than one-eighth of lineups, yet my model has him optimal at better than a one-in-six chance.
Buescher was in that second practice group with the faster cars, and ranked seventh in the group and eighth overall in FLAGS.
A little positive variance from there would be good enough for a top-five finish and likely entry into the optimal lineup.
The other thing I really like about Buescher is that he made zero pit stops in practice, showing that he didn’t need any adjustments and was happy with the car.
Noah Gragson or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5900 or $5400): These two punts start 28th and 24th respectively, but they were strong in practice FLAGS, ranking fourth and fifth in the first practice group.
Neither made a pit stop during their sessions, and both have strong Las Vegas results in the past, so it’s quite possible one or the other ends up optimal, especially if we get several high-dollar drivers dominating and finishing well.
I think most people will gravitate toward Zane Smith ($5800, starting 23rd) in this tier, and while he’s a fine play, I like these two as pivots off of him in the sub-$6k range.
Pictured: William Byron
Photo Credit: Joe Puetz, Imagn