The week ahead
This week presents critical inflection points for global markets, though considerable uncertainty surrounds US data releases following the federal government shutdown that delayed September’s employment report and trade figures. Markets anticipate China’s trade statistics and the commencement of third-quarter (Q3) earnings season featuring major financial institutions.
China’s September trade data assumes heightened importance as investors scrutinise export momentum with the tariff truce with the US scheduled to conclude on 10 November. August demonstrated resilience with exports advancing 4.4% year-on-year (YoY) and the trade surplus reaching $102.33 billion. However, import growth of merely 1.3% YoY signals continued weakness in domestic demand. Wednesday’s consumer price index (CPI) data will provide additional insight into domestic economic recovery progress. Deflationary pressure is expected to persist due to intense pricing competition amongst businesses.
The US consumer price index report, originally scheduled for Wednesday, has been postponed to 24 October due to the government shutdown, though will arrive in time for the Fed’s assessment before its 28-29 October policy meeting. Thursday’s producer price index (PPI) data, forecast to rebound 0.3% month-on-month (MoM) following August’s contraction, will also likely face delays until further notice. Should inflation exceed expectations, markets may recalibrate rate cut probabilities for the remainder of 2025. Currently, the market is pricing in a 98% probability of a rate cut in October.
Third-quarter earnings season officially commences with results from major US banking institutions including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. Financial sector performance will illuminate the health of consumer lending and investment banking activity. Technology sector attention centres on results from ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), whose guidance will prove critical for assessing AI infrastructure demand. Strong earnings accompanied by optimistic forward guidance could catalyse renewed equity market momentum, while disappointments may trigger sector rotation or broader risk aversion.
According to Factset’s Earnings Insight report, analysts are estimating an earnings growth rate of 8% for the S&P 500 in Q3 following upward revisions during the period. The number of companies issuing positive earnings guidance (56) substantially exceeds the five-year average (43), driven by optimistic outlooks from technology companies. This forecast presents a stark contrast with sentiment prior to Q2’s earnings season, when analysts expected earnings growth below 5%. With substantial optimism priced in and valuations significantly above long-term averages, questions emerge regarding whether elevated expectations for Q3 will face disappointment.
Figure 4: S&P 500 earnings growth expectations by sector (3 October vs. 30 June)