Monday, October 13, 2025
View Larger +
PHOTO: File
University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro declared on Monday that Rhode Island is in a recession.
The time for my equivocation has now come to an end: RHODE ISLAND IS IN A RECESSION. While our economy has had its ups and downs over the last year or so, starting last December, we have been unable to attain or sustain any broadly based economic momentum. While some indicators have shown favorable values at times, and that is also true this month, as a group, this has not been the case, writes Lardaro in his monthly Current Condition Index (CCI) — a measure of the Rhode Island economy scored 0-100.
GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE — SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST
“Its value, 33, is yet another in a string of disappointments,” Lardaro writes.
Years ago, I designed the Current Conditions Index for the purpose of gauging Rhode Island’s cyclical economic momentum. Over the years, its track record has exceeded even my wildest expectations, as it leads going into recessions and is coincident with recoveries. The signal it is now providing is clearly one that Rhode Island is currently in a recession that likely began last December. It should be noted that there is no official definition of recessions at the state level,” said Lardaro.
“Even the national definition most people believe (two or more consecutive quarters with negative real GDP growth) is not correct. In the present situation, the CCI has been unable to move into the expansion range since last November, its values this year have consistently fallen below the values last year, and done so with largely contraction range values,” Lardaro adds.
Single-Unit Home Permits Decline 9.1%
“Notable weakness, which sadly was not hard to find again this month, came from Benefit Exhaustions, reflective of longer-term unemployment, which rose by 30.7 percent. New Claims, which are related to layoffs, increased by 8.8 percent, and Employment Service Jobs, a leading labor indicator that deals with future employment, was flat. Even Government Employment fell, a rare occurrence, driven by declines in federal and state employment,” according to Lardaro.
Single-Unit Permits, related to new home construction, declined by 9.1 percent, our Labor Force fell, which actually made our Unemployment Rate look better than it actually is, US Consumer Sentiment also declined at a double-digit rate, and Private Service Producing Employment barely managed to rise (+0.6%),” he added.
The bright spots were retail sales and two indicators relating to manufacturing — wages and hours.
Related Articles
Enjoy this post? Share it with others.