CLEVELAND — All right, let’s talk about the Guardians’ payroll, as much a winter tradition in Cleveland as clamoring for backup quarterbacks or ice skating in Public Square.

Cleveland’s brass admitted at its annual postmortem press conference last Tuesday the need to bolster the offense, which, as GM Mike Chernoff offered up, ranked 28th in runs per game. And while the arrival and development of current and former top prospects Chase DeLauter, George Valera and Travis Bazzana could help the cause, the Guardians seem to understand that all of their shortcomings can’t be solved internally.

Team owner Paul Dolan does not sit in on those end-of-season sessions, so Chernoff and team president Chris Antonetti are left to answer (really, sidestep) a barrage of questions about financial flexibility and payroll plans. But the team’s payroll is available for everyone to see, and it’s hard to ignore the lack of commitments on the ledger.

If the Guardians are ever going to capitalize on their lack of long-term guarantees, while having an intriguing roster that has won back-to-back AL Central titles, this seems like an opportune time. They don’t even have to get uncomfortable to do so. Just to return to their recent trend of carrying a payroll in the $90-100 million range (one of the lowest figures in the league) would require a decent amount of offseason spending.

Let’s break it down.

The guaranteed money

The Guardians owe money to only four players for next season: the face of their franchise, their 2025 Opening Day starter (until food poisoning intervened), their former setup man who’s still finding his way back after elbow surgery and… wait, Myles Straw?

Indeed. As a team source explained, when the Guardians shipped Straw and international bonus pool money to Toronto in January — while the Blue Jays were trying to lure prized pitcher Roki Sasaki to their organization — they agreed to cover $1 million of Straw’s 2025 salary and $2.75 million of his 2026 cost. Why that latter figure? It likely accounts for another $1 million of salary, plus Straw’s $1.75 million buyout at the end of next season, unless Toronto feels like paying him $8 million in 2027.

Collectively, the other three on this list will earn $28.9 million next season. Eighteen players in the league earned more than that on their own in 2025. Ramírez’s salary will climb to $23 million in 2027 and $25 million in 2028 before he can enter free agency. Bibee’s salary jumps to $7.4 million in 2027, then $10.4 million in 2028 and $21.4 million in 2029. The Guardians can pay him $21 million in 2030 or hand him a $1 million buyout.

Stephan is the forgotten man in the group. He emerged as a viable setup man for the club in 2022 and ’23, but Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2024 season and his stuff never quite recovered in 2025. The Guardians outrighted him off their 40-man roster over the summer. He has a $7.25 million option for 2027, or a $1.25 million buyout.

The not-so-guaranteed money

The Guardians owe closer Emmanuel Clase $6.4 million for 2026, and then hold a pair of $10 million team options (or a $2 million buyout) for 2027 and ’28. He has been on non-disciplinary paid leave since late July as part of an MLB sports betting investigation, and even though he has been prohibited from pitching for them, the Guardians have been on the hook for his paycheck.

Team executives insist they have not been given a timeline for when they’ll have a resolution on Clase and Luis Ortiz, who also spent the last few months of the season on paid leave. Antonetti did say he hopes for clarity this offseason, but directed all inquiries to the league office, which has stressed it will not comment on the case while it’s active.

Obviously, if the investigation concludes with Clase not returning to the Guardians next year, his contract will no longer be the team’s concern.

The money that’s only guaranteed if they want it to be

The Guardians have eight arbitration-eligible players. MLB Trade Rumors, which offers annual projections on these salaries, suggests the eight players will command a total just shy of $20 million.

Kwan, the two-time All-Star who admitted he was frustrated with his offensive output this season, leads the way with a projection of $8.8 million. He’ll have one more year of arbitration eligibility entering the 2027 season, and then he can become a free agent.

After that, this isn’t an expensive group, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the club opted to non-tender a couple of these players.

Hentges, Lively and Brennan are all recovering from surgery. Hentges missed the 2025 season because of a shoulder procedure and recently underwent a knee scope. The Guardians could have cut ties with him last year, knowing he wouldn’t pitch in 2025, but they opted to tender him a contract. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn the same figure in 2026 that he signed for in 2025.

Lively and Brennan both underwent Tommy John surgery in June. Lively is expected to miss most, if not all, of the 2026 season. He’ll turn 34 in March. Brennan also had sports hernia surgery in September, though he’s expected to be ready for spring training.

Festa and Allard emerged as surprising sources of reliability in Cleveland’s bullpen this year. Allard can become a free agent after next season. Festa made 65 appearances for the Guardians, even though he didn’t join the roster until May. Manager Stephen Vogt might pay his $1 million salary himself.

Fry, who suffered facial/nasal injuries from a Tarik Skubal fastball last month, should be fully recovered in time for spring training. As for Jones, the Guardians hoped in March that they were acquiring a long-desired power-hitting corner outfielder, one who was thrilled to return to familiar surroundings (and escape the stench of the Colorado Rockies). Instead, Jones hit five home runs and posted a .600 OPS in 403 trips to the plate.

There’s one other player who falls into this category, sort of: John Means.

Contract optionSalary

$6M

$6M

The Guardians have until five days after the conclusion of the World Series to exercise or decline Means’ $6 million option. They paid him $1 million to rehab from Tommy John surgery this year, and if they weren’t already employing a six-man rotation that was chewing up opposing hitters throughout September, he likely would have pitched once or twice for them. Instead, he wrapped up his rehab, provided a veteran presence in the clubhouse and kept throwing with the big-league team until the end of the season.

The Guardians boast a good amount of starting pitching depth, but there’s the old adage about no team ever having enough, and it’s a mantra this front office shouts from the fourth floor at 2401 Ontario Street. Now, Cleveland’s evaluators have to determine, based on Means’ rehab reports, if $6 million is a worthwhile investment for a guy who owns a glowing track record when healthy, but has made only 10 starts the last four seasons. One other possibility: They could exercise his option and then gauge interest from other starter-needy teams. It wouldn’t net the Guardians anything other than a lottery ticket, but for most teams, $6 million isn’t much of a gamble.

The money that’s leaving

Lane Thomas: $7.83 million
Jakob Junis: $4.5 million
Austin Hedges: $4 million

Cleveland has three free agents. Each guy makes sense, to a degree, for a reunion, and the Guardians have had very preliminary talks with all three.

Thomas had the contract year from hell. He was rarely healthy, and when he was, he didn’t produce. He spent the last few months of the season hobbling around the clubhouse, itching to spend time with his teammates to keep sane while sidelined. The Guardians could use a right-handed stick in the outfield, but is Thomas dependable?

Junis was a last-minute addition in the spring and quietly pieced together a strong season of relief (2.97 ERA), culminating with his first trip to the playoffs in nine seasons.

The Guardians are quick to point out that they lacked leadership in 2023, the year Hedges won a World Series with the Texas Rangers. They made it a top priority to recruit him back the last two winters. So, it wouldn’t be shocking if they did the same this winter, and next winter, and the winter of 2087. They will have to sort through how they plan to use Fry and Bo Naylor, with well-regarded prospect Cooper Ingle also lurking at Triple A. The Athletic’s Keith Law noted Ingle as one of five honorable mentions on his Top 60 prospects list over the summer.

The bottom line about the bottom line

Let’s do some arithmetic. Their three players on guaranteed deals (plus Straw) will earn $31.65 million. If they keep all eight arbitration-eligible players (seems unlikely), that’s another $19.84 million.

That’s about $51.5 million for 11 active players. Barring free agents, trades or internal contract extensions, that means they’ll fill out the rest of the roster with 15 players each earning the league minimum of $780,000 (16 players if Stephan doesn’t crack the roster).

So, that puts their projected payroll at around $64 million. The last few years, they have carried a payroll in the $90-100 million range.

They could exercise Means’ option and tack on another $6 million. They could also non-tender Jones or Lively or Allard or all three. (It’s possible any of them would re-sign on a minor-league deal or agree to a lesser, guaranteed salary, too.)

The Guardians’ TV situation remains murky. A spokesperson said last week they’re still waiting on details to see if the new arrangement with ESPN will provide any sort of windfall. There are not-so-quiet whispers about work stoppages and labor strife next winter that seem to have some organizations apprehensive. Cleveland also drew 2 million fans to Progressive Field for the second consecutive season, the first time the franchise has done that since 2007-08.

What it all means, they won’t say. But they have next to nothing on the books, so for a front office that admits the offense needs some remodeling, the math suggests there’s plenty of room to operate when it comes to the payroll.