The challenge of governing rapidly evolving technologies demands new approaches, particularly when uncertainty is not a temporary problem but an inherent characteristic of the innovation itself. Miriam Meckel, Philipp Hacker, and Léa Steinacker, from the University of St. Gallen, European University Viadrina, and Norwegian Business School BI respectively, alongside colleagues, propose a shift in perspective, reframing uncertainty as a positive force for responsible innovation.
Their work identifies three interconnected layers of uncertainty—physical, technical, and societal—that are central to technological development and introduces the conceptual Risk Simulator as a blueprint for adaptive governance. By drawing parallels from cognitive neuroscience and predictive processing, the researchers propose a model that incorporates probabilistic reasoning, providing a flexible framework for regulating emerging technologies and potentially positioning the European Union as a leader in responsible innovation.
Collingridge Dilemma and Emerging Technology Governance
Navigating Uncertainty in Emerging Technologies: Emerging technologies, particularly in fields such as quantum computing, present a fundamental challenge to conventional governance approaches. Traditionally, regulation assumes risks can be identified and contained, but this becomes increasingly difficult with technologies built on inherent uncertainty. This challenge is often framed as the Collingridge Dilemma, where it’s difficult to anticipate a technology’s full implications early in its development, yet once established, it becomes resistant to change. Current regulatory frameworks often struggle with this, mirroring the deterministic logic of classical computing and favoring predefined risk categories.
Researchers argue that this approach needs to shift, particularly as technologies like quantum computing embrace uncertainty as a core principle. Quantum mechanics, unlike classical physics, doesn’t seek to eliminate uncertainty but operates within its parameters. This inherent uncertainty isn’t simply a lack of knowledge; it’s a fundamental property of quantum systems, where the act of observation itself influences the outcome. By drawing parallels between quantum mechanics and cognitive neuroscience, specifically the concept of “predictive processing” where the brain constantly predicts and adapts to an uncertain world, the team proposes a new model for governing emerging technologies.
This model reframes uncertainty not as a liability to be minimized, but as a generative force to be harnessed. Just as quantum systems leverage uncertainty to achieve unprecedented computational power, governance frameworks can benefit from embracing probabilistic reasoning and adaptive mechanisms. The researchers identify three interconnected layers of uncertainty in quantum computing: the underlying physics, the potential for technical breakthroughs, and the broader societal impacts. Understanding these layers is crucial for developing responsible governance strategies that acknowledge the inherent unpredictability of these technologies.
The team envisions a dynamic governance approach that moves beyond rigid rules and predefined categories, instead focusing on continuous monitoring, adaptation, and probabilistic assessment. This approach could position Europe as a leader in responsible innovation, offering a flexible alternative to the more laissez-faire approach of the United States or the state-directed control of China. By embracing uncertainty and leveraging the insights from quantum mechanics and cognitive science, the researchers propose a pathway towards governing emerging technologies in a way that fosters innovation while safeguarding societal values.
Quantum Key Distribution and Error Mitigation Strategies
Quantum computing offers a potential solution to obsolete encryption methods through quantum key distribution, enhancing symmetric encryption security. This highlights the dual nature of quantum advancements and the ongoing debate surrounding claims of technical progress and quantum superiority, complicated by persistent high error rates. Recent breakthroughs in fault-tolerant algorithms and hardware, exemplified by companies like Xanadu, suggest meaningful progress, building upon comprehensive work in quantum error correction. Hybrid quantum-classical algorithms are also being developed to leverage the strengths of both computing paradigms, though challenges remain in transitioning from theoretical promise to practical application.
The societal repercussions of quantum computing extend to privacy, security, economic, and social dimensions, potentially surpassing those of previous technologies. The ability of quantum computers to break current encryption methods poses a significant threat to privacy, while the capital-intensive nature of quantum computing development could lead to wealth concentration and exacerbate social inequality, creating a “quantum divide”. Anticipating potentially detrimental social effects requires considering the “dual use” nature of quantum technologies. Recent regulatory advances, like the EU AI Act, offer a useful analogy to governing quantum technologies.
These approaches often categorize risks into predefined levels, such as prohibited, high, limited, or minimal. The proposed framework could be especially valuable for the European Union, offering a “third way” between hands-off libertarianism and strict state control. By embracing probabilistic reasoning, the EU could foster innovation while ensuring responsible development, creating a joint industry policy grounded in ethical values. This approach moves beyond simply categorizing risks to establishing a flexible, responsive system that acknowledges and adapts to the inherent uncertainties of cutting-edge technologies, ultimately encouraging progress without imposing arbitrary limitations.
Harnessing Uncertainty for Responsible Technology Governance
A New Approach to Technology Regulation: Researchers propose a fundamental shift in how societies govern emerging technologies, moving beyond traditional risk assessment to embrace uncertainty as a core principle. This work argues that conventional governance models struggle with technologies, particularly in fields like quantum computing, where unpredictability isn’t a temporary problem to solve, but an inherent feature of the system itself. Instead of attempting to eliminate uncertainty, the research suggests harnessing it as a generative force for more adaptive and responsible innovation. The team identifies three interconnected layers of uncertainty , physical, technical, and societal , that shape the evolution of any new technology.
They propose a new governance model inspired by the principles of mechanics and cognitive neuroscience, advocating for frameworks that continuously update and expose underlying assumptions rather than striving for definitive predictions. This approach acknowledges the limits of modeling complex systems, recognizing that complete predictability is impossible, especially at the forefront of technological development. This new model contrasts sharply with existing regulatory approaches, which often categorize risks into predefined levels. Instead, the researchers envision a dynamic system that evolves alongside the technology, continuously reassessing potential impacts and adjusting governance strategies accordingly.
This is particularly relevant for quantum computing, where uncertainty is fundamental, but the principles can be applied to a wide range of emerging technologies. This approach could be especially valuable for the European Union, offering a “third way” between hands-off libertarianism and strict state control. By embracing probabilistic reasoning, the EU could foster innovation while ensuring responsible development, creating a joint industry policy grounded in ethical values. This approach moves beyond simply categorizing risks to establishing a flexible, responsive system that acknowledges and adapts to the inherent uncertainties of cutting-edge technologies, ultimately encouraging progress without imposing arbitrary limitations.
Adaptive Governance For Emerging Quantum Technologies
Conclusion As technologies grow more complex, uncertain, and powerful, governance models must evolve accordingly. Nowhere is this clearer than in quantum computing, where uncertainty is a fundamental condition of the system itself. Embracing uncertainty as a generative force, when applied to quantum computing governance, means creating frameworks that are inherently adaptive and responsive to new discoveries and changing contexts, and which could be transposed to other technologies. This approach could be a particularly interesting initiative for the European Union to strengthen a joint industry policy based on the value framework of responsible technological development. Rather than attempting to categorize quantum applications into predefined risk levels, the EU should develop dynamic risk assessments that can evolve with the technology and create an alternating approach to libertarian and authoritarian models. By embracing the probabilistic and inherently uncertain nature of quantum phenomena in its governance structures, we can create an environment that encourages responsible development without imposing arbitrary limitations.