CHICAGO — Jed Hoyer and the Cubs face a bit of a conundrum that they wouldn’t have forecasted a year ago.

Heck, even two months ago this wasn’t a question.

What do you do with Shota Imanaga’s option at the end of the season?

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This isn’t your run-of-the-mill, one-year team option that most teams (or players, for that matter) face. No, Imanaga’s contract is unique and, five days after the World Series ends, Hoyer and the Cubs will have to decide whether to pick up the next three years of Imanaga’s contract.

If they don’t, then the option becomes a one-year player option, and if that’s declined, then the Cubs can extend a one-year qualifying offer to Imanaga. That would guarantee the Cubs at least receive a draft pick compensation if Imanaga left in free agency.

Got all that?

OK, let’s make it easier for you to understand and explain why it isn’t so straightforward:

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Club option

The simplest solution is the first decision and the biggest one for the Cubs: do they pick up his option for three years and $57 million ($20 million each in 2026 and 2027, $17 million in 2028) that comes with a no-trade clause?

A few months ago, this was a no-brainer.

The left-hander has a career 3.28 ERA in 54 starts in the major leagues, was top five in both NL Cy Young Award voting and Rookie of the Year balloting last season and appeared in the 2024 All-Star Game. Even his final line this year – 3.73 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in 144.2 innings looks solid.

“When we signed Shota, if you would have sort of shown us his production over the last two years, you would have taken that in a heartbeat,” Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said in Wednesday’s end-of-season press conference. “So not only has he produced for us, but he’s just a great teammate, a terrific asset to the organization.”

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[WATCH: Jed Hoyer’s full end-of-season press conference on the Marquee Sports Network App]

The overall season line doesn’t tell the full story and underscores why this isn’t necessarily a slam-dunk decision, though.

Imanaga allowed 20 home runs and posted a 5.17 ERA over his final 12 games. He allowed 12 home runs over his final six regular-season starts. He surrendered two home runs in 2.2 innings of the Cubs’ 7-3 loss to the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 2 of the NLDS and permitted a two-run home run in the Game 2 loss to the San Diego Padres in the NL Wild Card Series.

The home run was his bugaboo and put a sour note on the end of the season for Imanaga.

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So if the Cubs decide that the 14-game sample is what they’re going to base their decision on and decline the three-year option, then Imanaga has a decision for himself.

Player Option

Imanaga would have a one-year player option. If he picks it up, then the Cubs have a two-year, $42 million club option for 2027 and 2028. If that’s declined, then Imanaga has another $15 million option for 2027.

So, does Imanaga pick up a one-year, $15 million player option if the Cubs decline their side?

It’s highly unlikely that Imanaga would want to enter his age-32 season on a one-year deal and the risks that come with that.

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So Imanaga probably declines that option, which means …

Qualifying offer

The Cubs would then be able to extend a qualifying offer of one year and about $22 million.

Again, Imanaga would likely decline that, and he’d then hit the open market, and the Cubs would receive a draft pick if he signed elsewhere.

Analysis

The Cubs’ glaring need for pitching was evident in their run to the NLDS. The team had just two starters that they trusted by that time: Matthew Boyd and Jameson Taillon.

Imanaga’s troubles were so pronounced that he didn’t even pitch in that decisive Game 5, despite warming up twice.

But Imanaga is a prideful pitcher and one that’s so dedicated to his craft and improving that he earned the nickname “The Pitching Philosopher” in Japan. The Cubs have always banked on the larger sample size and the track record of a player rather than a short game sample.

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It’s why it probably makes the most sense to pick up that three-year option. The price of pitching is high, and even if Imanaga only pitches like he did in 2025, that’s still good value.

Seth Lugo, 35, signed a two-year, $46 million extension midseason that covers 2026 and 2027, and he posted a 4.15 ERA in 145.1 innings. Lucas Giolito, 31, signed a two-year, $37 million pact before 2025. He posted a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings.

The Cubs face a decision whenever the World Series ends, and it could impact what the front of their rotation looks like in 2026.

“Obviously, we have decisions to make, and we have discussions to make, and over the next two or three weeks, we’ll do that,” Hoyer said. “But I’ve got nothing but positive things to say about Shota.”

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