As WTA Ningbo enters the semifinals, the matches get even better. Every woman in the semifinals is a Top 20 player in the World. There will be no easy victories. Here are my picks for the semifinal matches. Please share your picks with us in the comments section.   

WTA Ningbo Open
Shnaider – Alexandrova: Time 11:30

H2H: 1-1

For the third time overall and in 2025, Diana Shnaider will meet Ekaterina Alexandrova. While every match counts, both of their matches have been high-stakes, and one of them was a final. Alexandrova won their first match in Charleston during the round of 16. That match was on clay. Their second match was in the final of Monterrey, which Shnaider took in three sets. That match was on a hardcourt. That tournament victory was Shnaider’s only title in 2025. Alexandrova also has one title in 2025, but hers was indoor.

Best Bet to Make

The books have Alexandrova as a 1.25-point favorite. I explained why Alexandrova’s three losses look a lot different when you dive deeper into the opponent and the match, not to mention the fact that two of them went three sets, in her quarterfinal article. That same sentiment, but flipped on its head, applies when you dive deeper into the four losses in Shnaider’s 6-4 record during her last ten matches. The highest-rated player she lost to during that stretch was 15 spots behind her in the World rankings. One has quality losses, the other is losing to people she ought to be beating. I like over 12.5 games because the payout is higher than what you’d get betting straight up, and I think Shnaider has some fight in her.

That being said, Over 12.5 games is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/the best odds: Over 12.5 games @1.90 @bwin

Rybakina – Paolini: Time 09:00

H2H: 2-3

Elena Rybakina vs Jasmine Paolini is our featured match. This is their first meeting of the year, despite meeting four times in 2024 and twice in 2023. Both women are having outstanding years. Both have a title on clay in ’25, as Paolini won WTA Rome, and Rybakina won WTA Strasbourg. Paolini has been on fire lately. This is the third straight tournament in which she has made at least the quarterfinals, and the second straight reaching the semifinals. Rybakina has back-to-back quarterfinals to her name, and also had a period from the end of July to the middle of August, where she made three straight semifinals.

Best Bet to Make

The books have Rybakina as a 2-1 favorite, and I’m left scratching my head. Paolini has four wins against Rybakina, with one walkover, and she’s won the last two matches. Paolini also won both of their hardcourt matches. I’ll concede that Rybakina does have a fantastic career record on a hardcourt. She’s 183-83 to Paolini’s 158-110. While that does impact the line, Paolini is 27-11 on a hardcourt this year, Rybakina is 33-13. It’s not like Paolini has struggled on a hardcourt in the last three years. She’s 87-29 on a hardcourt in her last three years. Once again, give me over 11.5 games for 1.90 over 1.5 straight-up, though Bet365’s offering of Rybakina winning 2:0 for 2.1 is tempting.

That being said, Over 11.5 games is a value bet for sure.

Value bet/the best odds: Over 11.5 games @1.90 @bwin

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

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