Houston Rockets star Kevin Durant gets the season started against the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder, while the Tuesday nightcap pits Stephen Curry’s Golden State Warriors against the Luka Doncic-led Los Angeles Lakers.

This is a star-driven league, but surprises crop up everywhere.

Are you excited for 2025-26 to begin? Kellan Olson and I have previewed the Phoenix Suns’ outlook on the Empire of the Suns podcast that you can watch or listen to above.

We’ve also risked our very important reputations by making picks for title winners, league MVP and more.

In another little exercise to get our basketball brains moving, here are three prompts to get us — and hopefully you — excited for the season as it tips off. Let’s start with the local basketball club.

How do you evaluate the landscape in the Western Conference? If the Suns surprise us, do they have a chance of sneaking into a postseason spot?

Kellan Olson: I think it’s a nightmare and loaded in a way it never has been before, but I will entertain the question and say there absolutely is a case (while reiterating I don’t think this is going to happen). By the end of the year, one or two teams that should have been in the top-10 mix will be ravaged by injuries and another will have its season submarine in a way we didn’t predict. Always happens.

Memphis is a team I thought had a real argument for a top-eight slot and now they are already without Brandon Clarke, Zach Edey, Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. for elongated stretches. They couldn’t even make it to the start of the regular season before this routine nonsense kicked off!

When you look at locks, the Thunder, Rockets, Nuggets, Clippers and Timberwolves are too talented with too reliable of track records to swan-dive down the standings (permitting serious injuries to their superstars, of course). That’s five. After that, there are arguments to be made for the rest that an unexpected toiling around .500 could come in some worst-case scenarios.

The Warriors have shaky depth and are leaning heavily on a Big 3 with ages of 35, 36 and 37. The Lakers’ depth wouldn’t be shaky if it wasn’t for the incredibly shaky injury histories for most of the supporting cast, and then the healthy guys have consistency issues. The Mavericks are already down Kyrie Irving for most of the year, and Anthony Davis in the last five years is averaging 52 games played per season.

Then you get to the potential upstarts and surprises.

Do the Spurs require a full year of figuring out their backcourt dynamic or does that even matter if Victor Wembanyama is ready to take this thing over? The Blazers check so many boxes with a style of play, culture and depth but lack definitive star power. New Orleans would actually make this list if anyone could trust Zion Williamson to play 70 games. We covered Memphis, and then there’s no way this year goes right for Sacramento despite all the talent on that roster, right?

Like I said, you can talk yourself into it. My hesitation lies more in the Suns making their way toward that play-in line instead of a hesitation that the play-in line could actually be within eyesight.

Kevin Zimmerman: Let’s do some counting. The Thunder and Nuggets are my favorites to win the Western Conference, but from there it’s a jumble of teams who have a range from pushing to be in the top-two to scuffling and sniffing play-in territory. That group of six is the Rockets, Lakers, Clippers, Timberwolves, Spurs and Warriors.

The good news is we’re only at eight teams. I bet the Mavericks and Grizzlies could push into that above group to fill in the play-in squads, but from there, the mix of Suns, Blazers, Pelicans and Kings could sneak in if injuries or tailspins hit anyone above them.

The vulnerable teams for various reasons include the Warriors (Old and one Steph Curry injury away from nothingness), T-Wolves (Have they peaked?), Clippers (Older!), Lakers (Supporting cast is iffy), Mavs (Injuries!) and Grizzlies (Inappropriate Instagram story posting!).

So sure, there could be two open play-in spots to fight over in a reasonable world. It’s just a lot of other teams in the same tier as the Suns. The Kings and Pels have better on-paper talent.

I think there’s a 30% chance they are sniffing 40 wins, but things would have to break really cleanly to make the postseason. Put the Suns’ playoff odds at something like 10%.

Give us 3 teams you are the most intrigued by this season

Kellan Olson: I’ve already blabbered about the West enough, so I’m tripling up on the East.

Orlando is obvious. That is a conference-finals-worthy roster (where I have them), and it all is banking on how great Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner can be. Once the Magic are healthy, they have a case for the best ancillary cast around stars in the league. Jalen Suggs is a dog of all dogs, Desmond Bane is on that same shortlist and there’s wing depth with Jonathan Isaac and a “Injuries Allowed You To Get Important Reps For Year 2” second-year nod for Tristan Da Silva. The three-man center rotation, when healthy, is ultra dependable and so is Tyus Jones when he’s not in a clown car engulfed in flames. Anthony Black is a sneaky Year 3 breakout candidate and this is an awesome fit for rookie Jase Richardson.

Either them or the Atlanta Hawks could be serious roadblocks for the more established Cavaliers and Knicks. If you didn’t watch Jalen Johnson on the Hawks last year, how good he is will catch you off guard. He could be an All-Star this year. I loved the Nickeil Alexander-Walker signing as the perfect third guard to play off Trae Young or Dyson Daniels. We’ll see how long Kristaps Porzingis stays upright for, but when he is, he’s still pretty darn good. And his absence would clear the way to fully explore Onyeka Okongwu, one of the best backup bigs in the NBA, as well as explosive rookie Asa Newell. Oh yeah, Zaccharie Risacher was the No. 1 pick last year and looked very solid. It’s top-heavy toward the top seven or eight in the rotation, but I love that group.

Are we sure the Milwaukee Bucks won’t just be bad? I get it. It’s Giannis. But this group around him has serious disaster potential. I count five heat-check lovers in this rotation. Five! Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Cole Anthony, Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis can all bring secondary offense, but it might trend more toward ugly than pretty. Big Myles Turner guy. He also played 70-plus games back-to-back years after averaging a number in the 50s across the previous four seasons, so if he misses a chunk of time, watch out. The pitch is “Giannis + shooting = 45 wins” and it’s not giving Don Draper.

Kevin Zimmerman: To chop my list down, I’m segmenting this into a title contender, a team on a rise and a team at risk of falling off the cliff (Editor’s note: This format made me nearly pick the same teams as Kellan).

1. My title contender is a no-brainer. The Denver Nuggets got rid of their pigeon, Michael Porter Jr., and replaced him with a familiar face for us in Phoenix, the always-reliable Cam Johnson. He will be in the right spots on defense. He has enough offensive stuff to really take pressure off Aaron Gordon and space the floor just as well as MPJ. And the depth is back thanks to patience, with Bruce Brown retained, plus Tim Hardaway Jr. joining Christian Braun, Jalen Pickett and Julian Strawther on the perimeter. The frontcourt rotation includes stopper Peyton Watson, Jonas Valanciunas and second-year man DaRon Holmes, whose rookie season didn’t get off the ground due to injury.

2. I wanted to pick the Blazers for my team on the rise because they found an identity and lowkey developed two Most Improved Player candidates in Deni Avdija and Toumani Camara. But it’s the Atlanta Hawks whose future could swing the balance of the NBA depending on how it goes. Johnson is a star if he’s back healthy, Daniels blew up last season, while the addition of Alexander-Walker digs up depth questions. Johnson is joined by a frontcourt rotation of Porzingis, Okongwu and 2024 No. 1 pick Risacher. They should be fun! If not, they should be trading Young!

3. In the “team at risk of falling off a cliff” category, you could go with the Clippers or Warriors here, but my bet is their awesome coaches can keep them afloat through bad luck. Ditto for the Mavericks — Cooper Flagg helps. To me, the Lakers are pretty boring and set up for the future, even if they flop with a crappy supporting cast around Doncic and LeBron James. But the Bucks? Look at a roster for two seconds, and a crystal ball will appear in front of you and you will see only TWO Antetokounmpos at the end of the year — neither of them is Giannis. In ESPN’s big season rankings preview, reporter Jamal Collier wrote for his bold prediction that Ryan Rollins is the “Bucks’ best guard.” Not great! Giannis is going to be learning how to properly char bagels in New York come February.

Toss out some fun players! Who are some interesting swing guys for you across the league?

Kellan Olson: Three “How Good Are You Really?” names: Banchero in Orlando, Johnson in Atlanta and LaMelo Ball in Charlotte. I previously covered the other two, while Ball is entering Year 5 (!) and the Hornets have won a combined 67 games in the last three seasons. And I’ve got another trio in that same vein but all on the same team in Houston with Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard and Amen Thompson. The Terror Twins (Thompson and Eason) are a delight, and I think they’re going to annihilate the league this year, providing the perfect dynamic to be the Robins to Kevin Durant’s Batman. Sheppard could still keep the Rockets’ title aspirations afloat if he’s ready for 25 minutes a night.

I’m sticking with groups of three, I guess! My three favorite connectors on contenders this year are Cleveland’s Lonzo Ball, Denver’s Johnson and L.A.’s Chris Paul. The basketball gods have forsaken us by only putting Ball on a good team once while healthy, and for a half-season in Chicago. He’s going to be wonderful to watch. Please stay injury-free, king! You know the drill on Johnson already and how seamless that will be with Denver. Paul running ball screens with Ivica Zubac, John Collins and Brook Lopez in the late-night slot of league pass will be my sweet treat of serotonin before bed.

Portland is the team I am highest on compared to the consensus, and I could choose from a half-dozen youngsters that could swing its season. Give me Donovan Clingan as a vastly improved presence at the 5 and Shaedon Sharpe for a huge offensive year, especially with Scoot Henderson sidelined to begin the year.

While Minnesota has regression potential, it could graduate to true championship contender if its 2024 draft class of Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. are truly impactful in new rotation roles. Two teams with a similar-ish vibe out East that could actually be a pretty fun watch with breakouts are the Celtics, if we get Anfernee Simons lighting it up, and the Bulls with second year wing Matas Buzelis have a chance of revealing the kid is just a flat-out star. I don’t know how much Nikola Topic will play for Oklahoma City, but the intrigue there is obvious as well.

Lastly, some rookies! I’ve got five guys who I already liked in this class, and I love now with their fits and some early injuries opening up playing time right away. Cedric Coward looks like another hit for Memphis, Heat point guard Kasparas Jakucionis gets to be a ball-handler right away with no Tyler Herro for a while, we know the Sixers’ injuries will stack up eventually for V.J. Edgecombe to thrive, Nique Clifford is NBA ready for good wing minutes in Sacramento and Spurs wing Carter Bryant is the exact type of wing they’ve been missing for a few years.

Kevin Zimmerman: Did you know Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yubasele are now on the Knicks — and that they have an offensive-minded head coach in Mike Brown who might optimize that roster?

The Thunder’s rotation is unclear to me, but one of Topic or Ajay Mitchell is probably going to pop for a run this season and make teams eyeroll while wondering how Oklahoma City landed them in the draft over the past few years. Or it’ll be one of four other guys *Shaq voice* whose game I was unfamiliar with.

In San Antonio, the young trio of Castle, Dylan Harper and Bryant has a great foundation to grow alongside Wemby and De’Aaron Fox.

The Celtics got gutted for financial reasons in a reloading year with Jayson Tatum hurt. Porzingis gone means look out for some sneaky fun, untraditional post players like Chris Boucher and Luka Garza to get opportunities to bomb away and score in their different ways. At least, that is my hope from looking at the preseason rotations.

Everyone forgot Brandon Ingram was really good, and he might make the Raptors sneaky good.

I think the Blazers will be a fun watch, again, because of their young forwards — Avdija showed signs of jumping into Franz Wagner territory as a do-it-all scorer and hub. Jrue Holiday is there! He is one of the most underrated basketball men on the planet and should help them make a leap.

The Lakers are going to be a fascinating case study to see J.J. Redick’s sanity be tested if Deandre Ayton, Doncic, James and Austin Reaves attempt to run back on defense after a lowsy turnover.

The Rockets are interesting. In theory, it should be plug-and-play with Durant. If not, Suns fans will have fun with that.