What happens when expected impact players start slow?
It can put some fantasy teams in limbo. When a player’s long-term potential is so valuable, some prefer to stick it out and hope for the best. An early drop could come back to bite a manager, especially if another competitor swoops in and picks up the player as their game starts trending back up. Others may not care about that ripple effect and want to spot their own hidden gem.
In some instances, a slow starter can be an individual issue. That’s the case for Andrei Svechnikov, who has yet to earn a single point in six games on a team with a 5-1-0 record. Other times, it’s bigger than one player and more of a team-wide slump. That’s what we’ll buzz through today.
Should you panic about players on these teams?Tampa Bay Lightning
With a 1-3-2 record and in the basement of the Eastern Conference standings, the Lightning don’t look like the Stanley Cup favorite many expected entering the year. This sluggish start is due to issues on both ends of the ice — the defense has been challenged off the rush, the goaltenders haven’t been perfect behind that, and the offense has seriously lagged overall. The Lightning sit uncharacteristically low in all situations — 22nd in the league. As concerning as it is, this group should be able to turn things around offensively. That starts with the star players — Jake Guentzel, who won’t shoot less than 5 percent forever, and Brayden Point, who is centering his line. A Hagel-Cirelli-Kucherov second line cooked last spring, and it could help get things back on track. Maybe upcoming meetings against Anaheim, Nashville and even Dallas, who all rank in the bottom-10 in goals against, won’t hurt, either.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers currently sit 26th in scoring to open the season, primarily thanks to their lowly 1.58 goals per 60 at five-on-five and 5.95 shoot percentage. The shot quality is better than the results, but it still falls short of what is expected of a team led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
This team is too good to fail this much offensively; it’s just a matter of pushing the right buttons. Trent Frederic, David Tomasek and Andrew Mangiapane have all taken shifts on the top line. But now the Oilers are turning to Vasily Podkolzin, who developed some chemistry with the Draisaitl line last year, making him someone worth watching in Edmonton along with Tomasek, who is back on the top power-play unit after sitting versus Detroit. The advice here is similar to Tampa Bay: Don’t panic about the core in Edmonton because McDavid, Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard will all pick up the pace. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been fairly productive, too. Everyone else is pretty interchangeable based on the lineup on any given night.
Florida Panthers
Drop down to 29th in all-situation scoring, and you’ll find the Panthers, with 2.37 goals per 60. This team is generating more than the scoresheet reflects, with the 11th-best xG in the league, at 3.49 per 60.
The Panthers are obviously down two of their top forwards, but they still differ from a team like the Senators in that they have a lot of depth to lean on. Finishing is a big part of it. Sam Reinhart is still generating quality offense in all situations (5.23 xG), but he isn’t cashing in on as many chances. And at five-on-five, the team is shooting less than 4 percent with him, Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett on the ice. At the end of the day, it’s a results-driven league. Shaking up the top-six could help — the Sams are together on the top line, while the Brad Marchand line that thrived last spring has been reunited (making Anton Lundell a solid target). Add in the decision to return to a four-forward top power-play unit (with Mackie Samoskevich getting the boost), and this team should pick up the pace.
New York Rangers
The Rangers’ offensive struggles may be the most well-documented out of the group. Scoring just 2.11 per 60, New York sits second-to-last in the league, ahead of only the Flames. No one has a bigger gap between expectations and reality, as the Rangers are falling 11.6 goals below expectations through eight games. It’s a culmination of finishing woes on both the power play and at even strength.
The big problem is that the team doesn’t have a ton of finishing talent, especially with Vincent Trocheck sidelined. But the top six still shouldn’t be underperforming to this extent. Mika Zibanejad, at least, is generating a lot more scoring chances at five-on-five, which is something to build on. And that could benefit Will Cuylle, who has moved up to his line with Artemi Panarin. Shifting Alexis Lafrenière to J.T. Miller’s wing has upped his two-way numbers, too, so a rebound could be on the horizon here as well. There isn’t enough juice to squeeze out of the bottom-six, so holding onto those in the top-six is even more important.
Four-game streamers
Jonathan Huberdeau, C/LW, CGY | 40% Yahoo
It wouldn’t be a “Fantasy Trends” column without specific suggestions for next week. So let’s get back to business. We start with the return of Huberdeau, after he missed the first few games of the season. While he isn’t the prolific scorer of his Panthers days, he can still be a solid producer alongside Nazem Kadri and Joel Farabee (who is available in most leagues). The Flames play on a light night to close out this week and an eight-game Sunday, before a four-game Week 4.
Jake Allen, G, NJD | 36% Yahoo
You don’t have to wait until Week 4 to check out the Devils — they play on Friday and Sunday to close out this week. Since Nico Daws started on Wednesday night against the Wild, Allen should get tapped for the next two outings. He isn’t the busiest goalie in terms of shot quality against, but he has stepped up with three quality starts in four appearances with Jacob Markstrom injured. Other Devils to keep an eye on include Dawson Mercer, who is clicking with Nico Hischier and is a part of the top power-play unit.
Pavel Zacha, C/LW, BOS | 25% Yahoo
The Week 4 schedule is as balanced as it gets, with very busy Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays, and light nights in between. It helps to have pick-up players who will actually fit in your lineup. That can make players in Anaheim (like Jacob Trouba, for those who want a defenseman who hits all the peripherals) valuable despite not playing four times next week. The Ducks also have two light nights ahead.
Obviously, the best-case scenario is finding someone who plays on light nights and is in action often — like Boston, which makes Zacha an ideal target, especially on a two-game Monday slate. That’s when the Bruins take on the Senators, whose penalty kill has the highest goals-against rate in the league at 16.1, so Zacha, a part of PP1, could do some damage.
Arturs Silovs, PIT, G | 22% Yahoo
Last week, I talked about Justin Brazeau, who is still a solid option on the Penguins’ second line with Anthony Mantha and Evgeni Malkin (who is only rostered in 53 percent of leagues despite his hot start). This week, the focus turns to Silovs, who is earning more playing time as the Penguins’ starter. He has put up three quality starts in four games, while saving 4.59 goals above expected along the way, and earning a .919 save percentage. It’s a lot to ask him to sustain this level of play, but his previous NHL experience and AHL growth last year add some substance to his start.
Kent Johnson, C/LW/RW, CBJ | 20% Yahoo
Those in points leagues who prioritize offense should consider Johnson, who brings a lot of versatility with all three forward destinations. Alongside Adam Fantilli and Boone Jenner, the Blue Jackets’ second line has been pouring on the shots and scoring chances. But for managers who prioritize the physical elements of the game, look to Mathieu Olivier as soon as Friday, with Columbus playing on the lighter nights of the weekend.
Emmitt Finnie, C/LW, DET | 17% Yahoo
Speaking of productive up-and-comers, Finnie has been a bright spot in Detroit so far. He chips in on offense, creates shots and throws hits. And he plays alongside some of the Red Wings’ biggest stars — Lucas Raymond and Dylan Larkin. With two light nights on the schedule, this is one of the best teams to target next week.
Emil Heineman, LW, NYI | 2% Yahoo
Like the Red Wings, the Islanders have two Week 4 light-night appearances. That makes someone like Anders Lee a worthwhile pickup, thanks to his shot volume and scoring. But Heineman is also carving out a solid role for himself on the Islanders’ top line with Bo Horvat and Jonathan Drouin, which has outscored opponents 3-0. Along with scoring contributions, he also plays with an edge for managers who need to collect hits.
Honorable mentions: David Perron, Dmitry Orlov, Tyson Foerster, Brenden Dillon
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones, Dom Luszczyszyn, TheStanleyCap, and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.