This really shouldn’t be a bold prediction. And as far as the betting lines are concerned, it isn’t. Aside from the Blue Jays at -400, all six teams in question are at least -1000 to make the playoffs. A six-leg parlay would only pay out at -175 odds.
However, history tells us at least one team is supposed to blow it.
Seattle led the AL West at last year’s All-Star break, but it missed the postseason by a few games.
The year before that, both Cleveland and Cincinnati held narrow leads in the Central divisions at the break, each ultimately finishing at least 10 games back.
Same deal in 2022, with both ASB Central leaders—Minnesota in the AL; Milwaukee in the NL—missing the postseason.
In 2021, the New York Mets crashed and burned in spectacular fashion, going from 48-40 with a four-game lead in the NL East to missing the playoffs by a margin of 11.5 games.
No All-Star break in 2020, but the 2019 Cubs, 2018 Phillies, 2017 Brewers, 2015 Angels, 2015 Nationals, 2014 Brewers, 2013 Diamondbacks, 2012 White Sox, 2012 Pirates and 2012 Dodgers have all squandered what were division leads during the 10-or-more-teams era of MLB’s postseason field.
In total, that’s 16 out of 72 (22.2%) All-Star break division leaders from 2012-24 who missed the postseason, as well as 11 out of 12 seasons (91.7%) in which it happened.
The year 2016 was the lone exception to the rule, and even then, the Giants turned what was the best record in baseball (57-33) and a 6.5-game lead in the NL West into a “just barely made it as the No. 5 seed” photo finish with a 30-42 record in the second half.
But let’s cross our fingers on Toronto continuing to outperform its modest +17 run differential and say that all six get the job done for a change this year.