If conventional wisdom about the College Football Playoff rings true, Nebraska has a path to being one of the 12 teams selected.
Not a guaranteed path, but a path.
Not an easy path, but a path.
The Huskers’ playoff hopes only exist with a victory Saturday night against visiting USC. If they don’t beat the Trojans, it’s time to check out what bowl game might be possible.
Conventional wisdom suggests the Big Ten and SEC each will have four teams in the CFP. The Big Ten had four teams in last year’s 12-team tournament. The SEC had three teams.
But there’s no guarantee of four B1G or SEC teams, that’s just the talk.
Ohio State and Indiana are locks for the CFP and Oregon might be, too. If a fourth team is in play, intrigue takes over with many possibilities and probably one slot.
Nebraska, obviously, has to win out. Going 3-1 over the final four games won’t cut it. The Huskers also need help, maybe lots of help. There are four one-loss teams ahead of the Huskers (3-2, 6-2) in the Big Ten standings. Nebraska is one of five two-loss teams, but realistically only the Huskers and Washington still are alive.
So, there is a glimmer of hope for Nebraska.
Each one-loss team and each two-loss team has season-defining games remaining that will change the standings, and could change the perceptions and minds of the CFP Selection Committee. Some teams have two such difficult games remaining.
In a wild season where Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech control their fate and could get into the CFP, and preseason No. 1 Penn State (3-4) and preseason top 5 Clemson (3-4) might not even become bowl eligible, no one knows what’s going to happen on the field.
* Oregon (4-1 B1G, 7-1 overall): Unless they collapse down the stretch, the Ducks are in.
* Michigan (4-1, 6-2): This might be the most problematic team for Nebraska, which lost to the Wolverines in September. Michigan closes the season at home against undefeated, No. 1 Ohio State. OK, that feels like a Wolverines loss, but they have defeated the Buckeyes the last four years. But if Michigan beats Ohio State again, presuming they beat Purdue and Maryland along the way, the Wolverines almost certainly will get a playoff spot.
* USC (3-1, 5-2): Nebraska can leap over the Trojans on Saturday night at Memorial Stadium. Period.
* Iowa (4-1, 6-2): The Huskers play host to the Hawkeyes on Nov. 28. First, Iowa plays host to Oregon on Saturday, and is at USC on Nov. 15. Not easy.
* Washington (3-2, 6-2): The Huskies play wildly unpredictable UCLA on the road on Nov. 22, then close the season at home vs. Oregon on Nov. 29. Washington was in the national title game only two years ago.
* Minnesota (3-2, 5-3): Nebraska’s loss at Minnesota was damaging and might wind up being disqualifying. But the Golden Gophers have three losses overall, and they play at Oregon on Nov. 14.
* UCLA (3-2, 3-5): The Bruins have five overall losses, so they’re done. The CFP Selection Committee might have to stomach a three-loss team this year, but that’s the maximum number of losses that will get in — if that.
* Northwestern (3-2, 5-3): Nebraska’s 28-21 victory on Saturday ended the Wildcats’ long-shot hopes for a CFP berth.
Nebraska’s schedule actually helps, with USC and Iowa coming to Memorial Stadium. Say the Huskers win out and finish 10-2 — somewhat of a tall task many would say. Would a 10-2 Huskers team get in ahead of a 9-3 Michigan team that lost at home to No. 1 Ohio State but beat Nebraska head-to-head? It’s not an impossible scenario.
The Memorial Stadium scoreboard says it all: Victory over Northwestern, the next game vs. USC. / David Max
Nebraska hasn’t helped itself with uneven performances. Yes, wins are wins and the Huskers should feel good about having six of them. And their win over Cincinnati looks better and better. But teams now are trying to persuade the CFP Selection Committee that they are worthy.
Right now, Nebraska doesn’t have that one significant win. The kind of win that makes the committee sit up and take notice and take notes. With so many teams crunched together, who knows what the difference is between getting in and not getting in.
And Nebraska’s signature win could be out there with USC, UCLA, Penn State and Iowa on its schedule. A bunch of one-score wins certainly helps the ledger but how much influence does a 28-21 win over Northwestern have on the committee?
But a Nebraska victory over USC, on NBC Saturday night, might have outsized influence with the committee. Beat the Trojans on national television in prime time and people will notice.
The first CFP poll will be released on Tuesday, Nov. 4 at 7 p.m. CT. Plenty of information will be dissected from the first poll. How significant that poll is for Nebraska will depend on one factor: Did the Huskers defeat USC on Nov. 1?
Right now, for Nebraska, nothing else matters.
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