It’s the first time since 2014 that Halloween falls on a Friday in what is expected to be horrific for the weekend box office.
For the most part, the crowds are expected to shrink greatly on Friday due to festivities, though a scary movie like Black Phone 2 might be able to find some semblance of an audience. Business is expected to bounce back Saturday.
The majors are scared to technically release any new titles — appropriately so — though Focus Features is going wide with Yorgos Lanthimos’ Bugonia from 17 theaters to 1,800 in what’s expected to be a $4 million-plus second weekend. If that’s the case, it would be the most a Lanthimos movie ever has collected in a wide break.Wwith a great Rotten Tomatoes score of 90% certified fresh and very good audience score of 81%, Bugonia posted a great $41,7K theater average in its opening frame for a 3-day of $709K.
Netflix is re-releasing Kpop Demon Hunters which delivered the streamer its first No. 1 title with $19M over Aug. 23-24 in a wide release sans AMC. They have the No. 1 circuit this time. Netflix is putting the reissue into 2,890 theaters. AMC has revealed the animated title will play 400 of its cinemas around the globe. Rivals expect about $6M for the most-watched Netflix movie ever from Sony Pictures. The notion is that there isn’t any more juice left in that squeeze. Over 541 million global viewers have watched Kpop Demon Hunters.
So what’s No. 1? Either Universal/Blumhouse’s Black Phone 2, due to the spooky holiday, or Paramount’s feature take of Colleen Hoover novel Regretting You, which has had great word of mouth among its female demo. Both movies are expected to do $7M apiece. Through five days, Regretting You has a running total just under $17M. Black Phone 2 stands at $51.4M through its second Tuesday.
Sony/Crunchyroll’s Chainsaw Man, though No. 1 so far this week on Monday and Tuesday and a running cume of $21.8M, is expected to fall by 65%-70% in Weekend 2 a la other anime titles. After a No. 1 win last weekend of $18M, weekend dos will be around $5M on the low end.
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Fathom also has the wide release of Summit/Lionsgate’s Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 1 & 2. Universal is re-releasing Back to the Future in 1,900 theaters including Imax auditoriums.
Says one distribution boss about the upcoming Halloween frame, “It’s going to be a weird weekend.”