TORONTO — Being consistently outshot is a bit of a problem, especially when the difference is significant. A lopsided shot clock means the other team has the puck, but it’s also not an insurmountable issue.
However, the more serious matter that often stems from being outshot and not one that many teams can consistently endure is being outchanced.
Despite the season nearing a month old, we are still in the infancy of learning the fundamental question: Who are the Pittsburgh Penguins? Since the beginning of the season, they have usually been outshot and occasionally outchanced, and that trend was unchanged during their recent eight-game points streak that went splat Saturday against the Winnipeg Jets at Canada Life Centre.
Make no mistake, the Penguins have been flirting with disaster for weeks. They’ve been outshot and outshot badly numerous times. During the streak, the Florida Panthers bombarded them on the shot clock, 37-17. Two days later, the Columbus Blue Jackets rang up 41 shots, and a third period flurry gave the Penguins 28 (later amended to 31).
Oddly, Saturday’s 5-2 drubbing by Winnipeg was just the fourth time in 13 games the Penguins actually outshot their opponent. After Erik Karlsson finished pranking defense partner Parker Wotherspoon on Thursday, he chatted with Pittsburgh Hockey Now about the shot clock and its importance.
“I think shots are sometimes very accurate in how a game was (played). It can also be very misleading. I can take a lot of shots, but get nothing out of them,” Karlsson told PHN. “I think it’s more about quality over quantity. I think that we are very good at quality-managing our shots. Would we like to get a few more on that? Probably, probably. It would give us a better chance to score more goals statistically.
“So yes, as for giving up shots, I think that we’re still trying to figure out a little bit how we defend and the way that we want to defend.”
Karlsson was a fountain of insight for PHN last week. He is a keen observer, and casually honest in a disarming way.
Sometimes, it’s like grandma admitting your cousins are ugly, but with love.
After being pranked, Wotherspoon might have been more sensitive to the matter since his stay in the NHL has never been guaranteed. He agreed the shot imbalance was a problem.
“We definitely want to keep the shots down and know that we’re playing better defense,” Wotherspoon said. “I think for the most part, everyone is playing really well, helping us out a ton. You always worry about quality over quantity–if they’re getting quality shots, yeah, absolutely (that’s a problem).
“I feel like we’re limiting the quality. And when they do get quality chances, the goalies are doing a great job … for the most part, we’ve been doing a good job as a team.”
It was easy for the Penguins to shrug off imbalances on the statsheet when the points were rolling in. It mattered less when their shots were outnumbered as long as their Ws outnumbered their Ls.
Sustainable? Probably. The Washington Capitals were perennially on the short end of the Corsi stick, yet kept close pace with the Penguins for a decade.
Cause for concern? After the listless shootout loss in Philadelphia to begin the road trip, coach Dan Muse quickly dismissed the shot clock concerns and emphasized scoring chances.
“No, I mean, I think we’re going more off of the actual chances than we will shots. I think the chances we gave up (against Philadelphia), yes, there are definitely areas and issues that (we have) talked about, especially in that second period that we needed to be better,” Muse said. “We need to clean that up. You need to make sure that we’re back in better spots, working the puck out of the zone together. And so yeah, that’s what needs to be cleaned up.”
According to NaturalStatTrick.com (where all of our scoring chance stats are derived), the Penguins were also outchanced against Philadelphia 22-16, and 10-6 in high-danger chances.
Scoring chances are, indeed, an entirely different matter. Expected goals for, scoring chances, and high danger chances separate playoff teams from lottery teams.
Remarkably, the Penguins are second in the NHL with 31 expected goals and have scored a healthy 27. But before appreciating that stat too much, the Penguins are also 31st with 32.5 expected goals against, but have allowed only 24 goals.
They are 18th with a 49.1% expected goals-for ratio.
While that xGf ratio is more in line with external expectations, the team has gotten superb goaltending from Tristan Jarry and Arturs Silovs, Saturday’s clunker notwithstanding.
To connect the shots and chances and expected goals and tie them together with a pretty black and gold ribbon, while the Penguins have outshot their opponents only four times, they’ve only outchanced opponents five times in 13 games, but when counting high danger chances, they are almost evenly split, getting the better of seven matchups.
The Penguins are giving up way too many shots, which means they are not playing with the puck enough. They are giving a bit too many chances, which is the result of the same lack of possession, but they are largely playing even or better with great scoring chances.
In other words, Karlsson wasn’t wrong.
As everyone pauses to see if the Penguins’ 8-2-2, now 8-3-2 start is for real, several teams have blitzed the Penguins, but over the course of the first month, the trend is emerging.
Of course, the high number of chances against is a year-long trend for the roster, and a new coach probably can’t cure that chronic illness. To keep the winning pace, the Penguins will need to keep up their high volume of high-danger chances.
Depending on the day, they are still first or second atop the NHL standings, while the numbers say they are the 14th-worst team in the league.
So, are the numbers right, or will the team settle somewhere in the middle, which would still be a playoff spot?
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