The recent shuffle of top 10-ranked teams adds some intrigue to the release of the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2025 season, but it doesn’t change the bottom line for Georgia.
The Bulldogs, with their 7-1 overall mark and 5-1 mark in conference, remain on the outside looking in on the SEC Championship, yet projected for the No. 5 CFP field seed provided they keep winning.
It appears likely at the moment that whoever sits in that No. 5 seed will draw a home game against the highest-rated Group of Five champion, which at the moment projects to be No. 22-ranked Memphis, which by virtue of automatic berth would be the No. 12 seed.
San Diego State, North Texas, South Florida and Tulane are other teams that remain in contention to secure that final CFP field spot, should any of them emerge as the top-ranked Group of Five conference champ.
The first set of CFP rankings will come out at 8 p.m. on Tuesday (ESPN) and reveal how this 13-member committee evaluates the Big Ten and SEC teams, as Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M all have undefeated records.
A new “record strength” metric was introduced to the CFP committee in the offseason, but how and to what extent it factors in remains to be seen.
Each weekend of games will provide degrees of separation between teams and change up projections, and this coming Saturday is no different, as undefeated and No. 8-ranked BYU plays at 8-1 and No. 9-ranked Texas Tech in a Big 12 showdown.
The respective conference championship games — Friday, Dec. 5 for Conference USA, Sun Belt, American and Mountain West, and Saturday, Dec. 6 for ACC, Big Ten, SWAC and SEC teams — will provide the final data bits for the committee before it releases the rankings that will set the playoff field.
This past Saturday, the clock struck midnight on Cinderella stories at Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, while Miami stumbled its way out of the top 10, too.
Notre Dame (6-2) was among the biggest benefactors of the Commodores (7-2), Yellow Jackets (8-1) and Hurricanes (6-2) falling in their respective conference road games, as the Irish moved up to No. 10 in the AP poll and likely need only win out to ensure itself a repeat trip to the College Football Playoff.
The Irish scored a 25-10 road win over Boston College and will finish the season at home against Navy next Saturday, at Pitt on Nov. 15, at home against Syracuse on Nov. 22 and at Stanford on Nov. 29.
Vanderbilt, which fell at No. 20-ranked Texas, 34-31, still has three wins over ranked opponents and could be higher in the CFP rankings on Tuesday night than its No. 15 AP Top 25 rank suggests.
The Commodores (7-2) have a shot for the CFP field if they win out over Auburn, Kentucky and at No. 23 Tennessee — and UGA beats Texas, which would give the Longhorns three losses.
Georgia Tech (8-1) lost under the lights at North Carolina State (48-35) on Saturday, but the Yellow Jackets still have a degree of control over their destiny.
Georgia Tech wins over Boston College, Pitt and Georgia would improve the resume, particularly if the Yellow Jackets score the win over the Bulldogs.
Georgia Tech came out No. 16 in the AP Top 25 rankings, and that might be a best-case scenario for the first set of CFP rankings, as the Yellow Jackets do not have one of the stronger schedule strengths at this point of the season.
Georgia Tech could still play in the ACC title game — and potentially win the league’s automatic berth — by winning its remaining conference games against Boston College and Pitt — and then winning an ACC tiebreaker that would involve Louisville losing another league game, or if Virginia loses to Wake Forest or Virginia Tech, or if Duke were to beat Virginia and then the Blue Devils lose to Wake Forest or North Carolina.
Georgia has a strong enough schedule strength that it could make the CFP field even should it lose one of its three games at Mississippi State, against Texas or against Georgia Tech, but that’s not a given.
A loss to an unranked Mississippi State team would damage UGA’s resume greatly, and a loss to the Longhorns would put UGA on the wrong side of a head-to-head comparison with Texas, should the Longhorns win out and also finish with two losses.
Alabama (7-1) was idle on Saturday but looks to be on track to make the College Football Playoff field provided it wins out in the regular season (LSU, Oklahoma, Eastern Illinois and at Auburn) and makes the SEC Championship Game.
Ole Miss (8-1), which knocked off South Carolina (30-14) on Saturday in Oxford, appears to have the easiest path to a sure-fire ranking that would get it into the CFP field.
The Rebels might not match their AP rank of No. 7 when the CFP rankings come out, but they’ll be in the top 10 with remaining games against unranked opponents The Citadel (at home), Floria (at home) and at Mississippi State.
Here’s a look at the projected CFP field as of the games played on Nov. 1:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 3 Ohio State
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
Dec. 19 and 20 on campus
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Vanderbilt at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
Quarterfinal games
Played at the Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Vanderbilt/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Ohio State
No. 10 Virginia/Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame/Texas Tech winner vs. No. 1 Indiana