Three players can still qualify for two semifinal spots in the 2025 WTA Finals, with a multitude of scenarios at stake on Thursday. In her last match of the season, Jasmine Paolini will look to play spoiler and upset Jessica Pegula, while Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff will battle in a rematch of the 2025 French Open final. LWOT has the predictions for both matches.
WTA Finals Day 6 Predictions
Jasmine Paolini vs Jessica Pegula
Head-to-head: 3-1 Pegula
Pegula has two additional wins against Paolini at the ITF level, but the bulk of their matches have come in the early stages of WTA Tour-level events. The American has looked convincing all week, despite a tough loss to Aryna Sabalenka, and she has lots of firepower off both the offensive and defensive wings. Paolini, meanwhile, has struggled with unforced errors throughout the week and has been battling illness.
Paolini did win the pair’s previous meeting, which was a 6-4 6-2 rout at the Billie Jean King Cup round robin stage. If the Italian can get off to a quick start, the nerves of a semifinal spot could trouble Pegula. However, the American has enough steadiness and consistency to be the slight favorite here.
Prediction: Pegula in 3
Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff
Head-to-head:Â 6-5 Gauff
The pair’s French Open final was a thriller, though it ended in a poor display of 70 unforced errors from Sabalenka and cost the Belarusian a first Grand Slam title outside of hard courts. Sabalenka has looked arguably steadier than Gauff at the WTA Finals, but this is a matchup where the World No. 1 struggles. Gauff’s awkward and crafty groundstrokes are a nightmare for a player reliant on heavy, offensive winners.
The two haven’t met since that French Open match, and it’s arguably been a better season for Sabalenka since then, capped off by a US Open title. While Gauff did win the Wuhan Open earlier in the fall, some of her recent losses to heavy hitters have been lopsided, such as ones against Amanda Anisimova in Beijing and Naomi Osaka at the US Open.
Gauff may be the favorite, based on her slight head-to-head lead and the ability she has to frustrate Sabalenka. However, something about the Belarusian’s form in the WTA Finals is more convincing; she’s limited double faults and has served well, and she won’t be impacted by the outdoor elements that plagued her in that French Open loss. Look for the World No. 1 to win in a close three-setter.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images