Marrakech – The United States is aggressively pursuing a comprehensive Morocco-Algeria reconciliation deal within a tight 60-day window, according to an analysis by the Middle East Institute.

This diplomatic push follows the landmark October 31 United Nations Security Council resolution that firmly established Morocco’s autonomy plan as the only viable path forward for resolving the Western Sahara conflict, delivering Rabat its most decisive diplomatic triumph on the issue to date.

US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff revealed on “60 Minutes” that his team is actively crafting a Morocco-Algeria agreement, clearly signaling President Donald Trump’s ambition for another headline-grabbing foreign policy success.

The Middle East Institute analysis, commenting on this revelation, suggests that successful reconciliation would yield tremendous benefits: integrating the wider Maghreb economy, significantly reducing migration pressures on Europe, expanding crucial energy cooperation, and enabling much more effective counter-terrorism coordination across the vulnerable Sahel region.

“Successfully resolving this long-standing dispute requires understanding that Western Sahara is one facet of a bigger issue and drives the deeper competition for regional leadership between Morocco and Algeria,” the institute’s analysis states.

This deep-rooted rivalry traces back to both countries’ post-colonial origins and has intensified dramatically since 2020, spilling beyond diplomacy into cultural battles, mutual delegitimization campaigns, and even inflamed sports rivalries.

The countries’ troubled relationship dates back to a brief 1963 border war, after which their political systems evolved along opposing ideological lines. Morocco maintained a pragmatic, pro-Western stance favoring free trade, while Algeria clung to revolutionary rhetoric and Third World solidarity principles.

Today, they promote competing models for regional influence, with Morocco successfully positioning itself as a dynamic economic bridge between Africa and Europe through ambitious projects like the Morocco-Nigeria gas pipeline.

Meanwhile, the separatist Polisario Front, progressively cornered and stripped of momentum, clings to obstruction as its last remaining tactic – propped up by an Algeria whose own political foundations are showing visible cracks.

The group’s decades-old claims have withered in the daylight of international legitimacy. Today, the world has moved on. Polisario’s narrative increasingly resembles a tattered banner in a windless desert – ignored, unsupported, and abandoned – while Morocco’s sovereignty over its southern provinces has gained the weight of global consensus and the authority of historical continuity.

In mediating between Morocco and Algeria, the United States subtly acknowledges that the real axis of the dispute has never been Morocco versus the Polisario, but Morocco and Algeria. Morocco does not recognize a proxy militia as a legitimate negotiating counterpart, and therefore, a direct dialogue with Algeria is what can lead to a genuine and lasting solution.

Time is on Rabat’s side

The recent UN resolution caps years of unstoppable diplomatic momentum in Morocco’s favor, beginning with the United States’ game-changing recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in 2020, followed by similar endorsements from Spain, France, and Britain.

Each nation backed up their diplomatic support with substantial investment commitments in the southern provinces, further cementing Morocco’s rightful control over the territory.

Morocco’s strategic defense partnerships, particularly through the Abraham Accords with Israel, provide the kingdom with significant technological advantages and political leverage in Washington and across European capitals.

Algeria finds itself even more isolated and under mounting pressure, including potential US sanctions for its Russian weapons purchases under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.

Its relationships in the Sahelian neighborhood have deteriorated significantly as Algeria opposes the presence of Russian Wagner and Africa Corps fighters in Mali and across the Sahel region.

“While Morocco continues to advance its objectives in the Western Sahara and beyond, Algeria and the Polisario are in an unfavorable position. Algeria’s stance has been reactive – defined more by countering Moroccan regional influence than by articulating its own positive strategic goals,” the institute’s analysis explains, laying bare the fundamental weakness in Algeria’s approach.

Algeria maintains some leverage as Europe’s crucial gas supplier despite its weakened position, particularly important since the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian war drastically reduced Russian supplies. The Algerian military also retains significant capabilities that can either facilitate or obstruct regional security cooperation efforts.

The Middle East Institute’s analysis stresses that effective negotiations must address Algeria’s economic modernization needs while ensuring regime stability. It proposes gradually integrating Algeria into Western defense partnerships, which would allow the United States to develop stronger military ties with Algeria and reduce its problematic dependence on Russian weaponry.

Both sides face constraints

The institute notes that both countries have established “domestic political red lines” that restrict their leadership’s flexibility. “The Moroccan monarchy has built legitimate national consensus around territorial integrity,” while “Algeria’s military rule has constructed its identity as defender against perceived external threats,” with Morocco incorrectly portrayed as the primary danger.

A concerning arms race further complicates the regional picture. Morocco allocated $13 billion for its 2025 defense budget, pursuing advanced F-35 aircraft and other cutting-edge capabilities, while Algeria approved an excessive $25 billion for defense, including potential acquisitions of Russian Su-35 and Su-57 fighters that threaten regional stability.

The institute recommends a phased approach for the Trump administration. According to the experts, the first phase should include immediate de-escalation by securing commitments from the increasingly irrelevant Polisario to halt their futile attacks and accept the inevitable cease-fire, while establishing proper monitoring mechanisms through an enhanced UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

This would be paired with a clear roadmap for implementing Morocco’s generous autonomy plan that addresses the practical needs of the local population.

The institute further recommends establishing direct Morocco-Algeria dialogue under American facilitation, initially focusing on avoiding inflammatory rhetoric and establishing communication protocols while identifying practical areas for cooperation, like border management. This would build toward deeper structural changes in the relationship.

The institute’s detailed recommendations for this phase include establishing formal military-to-military dialogue for border transparency, creating regional integration initiatives focused on energy cooperation, developing a robust multilateral counter-terrorism coordination mechanism, and adopting a comprehensive approach to migration management that addresses European concerns.

“This combination of security, economic, and political incentives can transform Algeria from regional spoiler into viable negotiating partner,” the analysis concludes, offering a practical pathway to finally resolve decades of tension through comprehensive engagement that acknowledges political realities while creating economic opportunities for all parties involved.

‘The two countries do not need mediators’

Following the historic UN vote, King Mohammed VI delivered a special address in which he extended an olive branch to Algeria, calling on President Abdelmajid Tebboune to “launch together a sincere, brotherly dialogue between Morocco and Algeria, to overcome differences and build new relations based on trust, fraternal bonds, and good neighbourliness.”

Even in this current climate that favors Morocco, Rabat has not abandoned the ideal of Maghreb unity – a principle the monarch has consistently championed. Instead, King Mohammed VI has repeatedly renewed invitations for a reconciliation with no winners and no losers, invitations that Algeria has continuously chosen to ignore.

Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita stated in a 2M interview that “restoring relations with Algeria and resolving the Sahara issue are closer than ever before, requiring only sincere will.”

He added, “This country that did not participate in the vote has expressed its position. The essential thing is that no country opposed the resolution.”

Regarding Algeria’s non-participation in the vote, Bourita explained that according to international law, this happens “when a country has an issue with the context, not the text.”

As for American mediation efforts between Morocco and Algeria, Bourita argued, “The King’s position has always been clear that the two countries do not need mediators, given their geographic proximity and shared history, and that they have the capacity to solve their problems themselves. All that is needed is political will.”