Carlos Alcaraz will kick off Day 1 of action at the ATP Finals. The Spaniard remains in the hunt for the year-end World No. 1. Two-time former champion Alexander Zverev will play his first match since sustaining an ankle injury at the Paris Masters when he faces American debutant Ben Shelton. Who will begin the tournament with a win?
ATP Finals Day 1 Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 4-0 de Minaur
Alcaraz was the first player to qualify for the 2025 ATP Finals. He’s won the most titles (eight) and accumulated the most points this season. While the Spaniard was dethroned as World No. 1 by his chief rival Jannik Sinner after the Paris Masters, that is expected to be a short period. Alcaraz still controls the destiny of the year-end No. 1 ranking. He can lock it by winning all three round robin matches regardless of what Sinner does in the other group.
Alex de Minaur left it late to qualify for the year-end championships for the second season in a row. Last year, the Australian was eliminated in the group stage after a 0-3 record. And there won’t be any easy matches this week. Both groups are replete with talent and star power. De Minaur has built his career on defying limits, and he is not a player who can be counted out in these conditions. De Minaur has an 11-3 record on indoor hard courts and stretched Alcaraz to three sets in the Rotterdam final earlier this year. Alcaraz suffered a setback in his preparations for this tournament after a shocking loss to Cameron Norrie in Paris. But his shot-making still carries a voltage that only a few can withstand, and this is a tournament that should play right to his strengths.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2
Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton
Head-to-head: Zverev 4-0 Shelton
Alexander Zverev was in doubt to feature at the ATP Finals and could still be. The German confirmed that the same ankle he underwent surgery on after the 2022 French Open swelled up significantly just before his match against Jannik Sinner in the Paris Masters semifinal. Zverev still took to the court and was routinely beaten by the Italian in straight sets in just 61 minutes. He planned to visit the same doctor who operated on his ankle three seasons ago before he travels to Turin. This will be his eighth participation at the year-end championships, having won this tournament twice in his career. Last year, he compiled a perfect group-stage record and was knocked out in the semifinals.
Ben Shelton is one of two Americans in the eight-man lineup in this year’s ATP Finals. This is his debut appearance. Shelton qualified after winning 40 of 62 matches. He lifted his first Masters title in Toronto, an achievement that was pivotal in securing his spot in Turin. Sehlton has never beaten Zverev in four previous meetings. He was also worn out in their recent match in Cincinnati, where Zverev dropped just four games. That could be attributed to a grueling two-week stretch of tennis in Canada, during which Shelton won a title. But this could be his biggest opening yet to break his duck in the head-to-head. Zverev’s ankle is a concern, and he also confessed to having a shoulder issue at the Six Kings Slam. That casts doubt over his ability to handle Shelton’s aggression and pacey shots.
Prediction: Shelton in 3
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch – USA TODAY Sports