The free-spending days that followed the pandemic are over.
Oregonians’ spending grew by just 5.1% last year, according to recently published data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That’s down sharply from 2021, when consumer spending grew by more than 13% as federal stimulus payments loosened up purse strings — and as inflation drove up the cost of most everything.
Consumer spending in Oregon has closely tracked national spending since the start of the pandemic, according to the federal data, though Oregon spending fell a bit more steeply last year.
Inflation fell to just 2.9% in 2024, which means that spending was increasing faster than the prices of the items that people were buying. That suggests a degree of underlying economic optimism, both in Oregon and across the country.
Heading into the holiday shopping season, though, that optimism may be waning. An annual survey of household spending plans by the consumer research firm Circana finds shoppers expect to spend just 3.2% more this season, with most expecting prices will be higher because of the Trump administration’s trade war.
“Retail is facing a reality check, with cost concerns front and center,” the consulting firm PwC (formerly Pricewaterhouse Coopers) writes in its own annual holiday sales forecast. Its survey predicts a 5% drop in holiday spending, the first significant drop since 2020.
“People are going to keep shopping,” PwC predicts, “but with continuing concerns about tariffs and elevated prices (especially on electronics, apparel, toys, food, and household staples), value-conscious choices are likely to define the season.”
This is Oregon Insight, The Oregonian’s weekly look at the numbers behind the state’s economy. View past installments here.
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