This is the time of year for Top 50 free agents lists and projections for salaries for those star players. The projections don’t necessarily line up with reality, but they do set outside expectations for what free agents could get.
The Chicago Cubs will be in the market for free agents this offseason. But the question that lingers from past offseasons is how much the Cubs are willing to spend to acquire what they need. Fans have often questioned the franchise’s spending habits.
The top of the market includes players like outfielder Kyle Tucker — who was a Cub last season — shortstop Bo Bichette, pitcher Dylan Cease, Japanese star infielder Munetaka Murakami, and infielder Alex Bregman.
All should command huge, multi-year deals. Whether any of them land in Chicago remains to be seen. But the Cubs can’t use a lack of money as an excuse, especially when one looks past 2026, when their payroll drops dramatically.
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On paper, the Cubs have $158 million committed to eight players for 2026, per Fangraphs’ Roster Resource. That doesn’t include a potential $22 million owed to pitcher Shota Imanaga if he accepts the qualifying offer. That would push the payroll to $180 million. The likelihood of Imanaga accepting the QO is low, however, as only 14 players have done so since 2012.
Assuming Imanaga moves on, the Cubs still must account for pre-arbitration and arbitration players. Per Fangraphs, that brings their payroll to $206 million. That is well below the projected $244 million competitive balance tax threshold. That room would allow Chicago to pursue anyone at the top of the market, including Tucker, Bichette, Cease, Murakami and Bregman. It would be tight, but it’s doable.
Locking in a player of that level would require a multi-year deal and at minimum a $30 million per year average annual value. Again, it’s tight — but only for a year. Why?
After the 2026 season, the Cubs have the potential to shed at least seven of their veteran contracts due to free agency, team options, or mutual options. Those players are Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, Nico Hoerner, Colin Rea and Carson Kelly.
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The Cubs may not lose all those players, but they all could come off the books. The combined value of those 2026 salaries is $96.5 million. Those would all come off the books.
Even if the options are exercised on Boyd, Rea and Kelly, the Cubs would still have $67.5 million come off the books. There is potential for the Cubs to have just one veteran deal on their payroll in 2027, which would be Dansby Swanson, who is on the books through 2029.
That’s why the Cubs can afford to spend this season. It might create a situation where they would be up against the first tier of the CBT. But come next offseason, the Cubs have immense financial freedom to take on the rest of any deal they sign this offseason, along with upcoming arbitration and pre-arbitration players.
The Cubs, led by president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, have worked for years to spend money judiciously. That is still prudent. But there is no reason for them to not try and connect with one of the top free agents on the market this offseason. The money is there.
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