Spotted by the ATLAS telescope, the asteroid, known as 2024 YR4, has sparked significant interest due to its unusual orbit and proximity. While the risk of it striking Earth has been ruled out, the possibility of a lunar impact still remains.
Asteroids like 2024 YR4, though small by cosmic standards, offer valuable insights into the behavior of space objects and the potential consequences of future impacts. If it were to hit the Moon, the event would provide a unique opportunity for scientific observation, as no similar impact has been directly observed in modern history.
The Asteroid’s Path
2024 YR4 was first detected in December 2024 by the ATLAS telescope in Chile, which is part of a global network designed to monitor asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs). In the words of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), initial observations suggested that the asteroid posed a minor risk to Earth, with an impact probability that captured attention.
However, after further observations and orbital refinements, the probability of a direct hit on Earth was dismissed by April 2025, and the minor planet’ path was recalculated. Despite this, experts are still monitoring the space rock closely due to its potential to strike the Moon.
The asteroid’s projected impact date is set for December 22, 2032, and while the chances are slim, NASA and international space agencies are using this event to test planetary defense systems. With its size estimated to be between 15 and 30 meters in diameter, it could still generate a significant impact event on the Moon.
This image displays Webb’s latest observation of the asteroid 2024 YR4. Credit: NASA/ESA/CSA/STScI
A Rare Event for Lunar Science
According to Richard Moissl, physicist specialized in minor bodies of the Solar System, an impact of this nature on the Moon would be a rare event.
“The impact would likely be visible from Earth, and so scientists will be very excited by the prospect of observing and analysing it. I am sure that detailed computational simulations will be done over the next few years.”
The event could provide new data about how space objects affect lunar surfaces and allow for detailed observations, given the relative ease of monitoring the Moon compared to other planetary bodies. If the space rocks strikes, it may create a new crater several hundred meters in diameter.
“However, we wouldn’t be able to accurately predict in advance how much material would be thrown into space, or whether any would reach Earth.”
The impact would likely also release a shockwave of lunar dust into space, providing clues about the Moon’s geological makeup.
The #JWST has been scheduled for emergency observations of asteroid 2024 YR4, a recently discovered near-Earth object with a 2.3% chance of impacting Earth in December 2032.
Detected in December 2024 by NASA’s Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System, 2024 YR4 is… pic.twitter.com/ucI1y1OmLG
— Erika (@ExploreCosmos_) February 11, 2025
How Will This Shape Space Defense?
The asteroid’s trajectory and potential impact on the Moon emphasize the importance of rocky body monitoring programs such as NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), which tracks the paths of objects that might pose a risk to Earth or other celestial bodies.
As NASA plans to return astronauts to the Moon through the Artemis program, understanding the effects of the cosmic rock impacts on the lunar surface becomes critical. The data gathered from this potential collision could help prepare for similar events in the future, especially as human activity on the Moon increases in the coming decades.
The monitoring of 2024 YR4 will continue in the coming years, with additional observations set to refine the asteroid’s orbital path. As stated by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, it will be closely tracked to ensure that any adjustments to its trajectory are identified well in advance. As of now, the possibility of a lunar collision remains relatively low, but the situation underscores the importance of ongoing monitoring and preparedness when it comes to objects in space.