The men’s World Cup is bigger than ever.
Next summer’s tournament in the United States, Mexico and Canada will feature 48 nations, up from the previous 32-team format.
Last month, Cape Verde — whose 525,000 inhabitants make it the second-smallest country by population ever to qualify — joined Jordan and Uzbekistan as first-time participants.
Despite the expanded tournament doubling the number of participating nations from the U.S.-held edition in 1994, seven (eight if Nigeria fail to qualify) of the 10 most populous nations have not qualified.
Here, The Athletic examines why many of the most populous nations will not be represented at the world’s premier sporting event.
Editor’s note: Population figures are taken from Worldometer at date of publication.
The Indian subcontinent – India, Pakistan and Bangladesh
India population: 1,463,865,525
Pakistan population: 255,219,554
Bangladesh population: 175,686,899
Previous total World Cup appearances: 0
India is the world’s most populous nation and the three countries on the Indian subcontinent — including Pakistan and Bangladesh — are all in the world’s top eight, comprising 23 per cent of the global population.
None of the three nations have participated in a World Cup finals. In 1950, India qualified by default, but opted not to take part after reported disagreements over team selection, and insufficient practice time.
That was the fourth edition of the World Cup and came just three years after India and Pakistan (from which Bangladesh gained independence in 1971) gained independence and were partitioned into separate states.
India have not come close to qualifying for a World Cup since. In this campaign, they were eliminated in the second round of Asian qualifying, winning one of six group games from a group in which Qatar and Kuwait advanced.
India supporters display a banner in honour of Sunil Chhetri, the country’s all-time top scorer (Debajyoti Chakraborty/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
India’s best football moment came in 1964, when they were runners-up to Israel (then a member of the Asian Football Confederation) in a four-team edition of the Asian Cup.
Pakistan have never qualified for any major tournament, while Bangladesh lost all four of their matches in their sole appearance at the Asian Cup in 1980.
The three nations can be grouped together geographically, but also for the reasons behind their relative underperformance.
Alongside Afghanistan to the north and Sri Lanka to the south, the area comprises almost half of the world’s Test-playing cricket nations. Cricket is the national sport due to its colonial legacy from British rule and is a major strand of national identity.
The prevalence of cricket, in part, helps explain the lack of infrastructure and funding for football — which may not hold national sport status but remains extremely popular, as evidenced by the passionate local support for Argentina and Brazil at major tournaments.
No club team from the Indian subcontinent has ever reached the final of the AFC Champions League, or its predecessor competition, the Asian Club Championship.
Domestic football is not thriving. At the time of writing, the top-flight Indian Super League remains on hold as India’s federation, the AIFF, is struggling to sell the competition’s commercial rights. As per a November 8 report from Reuters, a number of its clubs have suspended first-team activities as a result, including champions Mohun Bagan Super Giant.
Pakistan, meanwhile, remains the world’s largest country without a national football league. The Pakistan Premier League has remained inactive since the 2018–19 season.
China
Population: 1,416,096,094
Previous World Cup appearances: 1
Unlike the Indian subcontinent, China’s continued struggles in men’s football are complex.
They have featured just once at the World Cup, in the 2002 edition held in neighbouring Japan and South Korea, losing all three matches without scoring a goal.
In the mid-2010s, China’s president, Xi Jinping, pledged to solve the nation’s underperformance in the sport and declared an ambition to turn China into a “football powerhouse”.
Huge corporations such as Suning (retail) and Evergrande (real estate) were urged to bankroll the Chinese Super League (CSL). In return, they would gain greater global exposure for their brands and, significantly, presidential approval.
A series of big-money transfers followed, but the project proved unsustainable. Tight financial regulations were introduced, with non-Chinese player signings heavily taxed. The Chinese FA announced a series of measures to address “irrational investments by clubs, high-figure transfer fees and salaries paid to domestic and international athletes and other issues”.
President Xi, who assumed the position in 2013, stated his aims for China to qualify for a World Cup, host a World Cup and, ultimately, win a World Cup. He instructed the installation of 70,000 new pitches and 20,000 training centres across the country by 2020. The sport became compulsory in schools for children aged six and above.
Football is hugely popular there. The average attendance in the CSL is 25,000, with each matchday averaging 200,000 in the top division. However, the international team continue to struggle. China are ranked 93rd in FIFA’s world rankings and 13th in Asia. President Xi’s ambitions have not yet been realised.
China have, however, been regulars at the Women’s World Cup. Since hosting its inaugural edition in 1991, they have reached eight of its nine tournaments and lost the final on penalties to the USWNT in 1999.
Indonesia
Population: 285,721,236
Previous World Cup appearances: 1 (Dutch East Indies)
Football is Indonesia’s No 1 sport, but their only World Cup appearance came in 1938 when they were still known by their colonial name as Dutch East Indies. Independence followed seven years later.
The world’s fourth most populous nation has struggled to produce top-level footballers due to an absence of infrastructure, but they have recently begun leaning on the nation’s diaspora, predominantly based in the Netherlands, to improve their fortunes.
Indonesia’s players celebrate beating the Philippines in a World Cup qualifier in 2024 (Robertus Pudyanto/Getty Images)
According to the Director of Indonesian Citizen Protection, over 2.2million Indonesian citizens officially live abroad and around 1.7m are in the Netherlands, which ruled the nation for over three centuries.
Indonesia’s 23-man squad for the October international break included 15 players born in the Netherlands, one in Belgium, one in Spain and one in Finland — Eliano Reijnders, brother of Netherlands international and Manchester City player Tijjani.
Utilising their diaspora has improved Indonesia’s results; reaching the knockout stage of the Asian Cup in 2023 and the fourth round of World Cup 2026 qualifying, before losing by one-goal margins to Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Nine months of that campaign was overseen by former Netherlands international Patrick Kluivert, who has subsequently left his position.
Indonesia have not yet reached the World Cup as an independent nation, but not doing so is now regarded as below par.
Russia
Population: 143,997,393
Previous World Cup appearances: 11 (seven as the Soviet Union, four as an independent nation)
Russia’s national and domestic teams have been suspended from FIFA and UEFA competitions since the country’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Unlike all other nations on this list, there is a strong football culture and tradition there. As an independent nation, Russia hosted and reached the quarter-final stage of the 2018 World Cup. A decade earlier, they advanced to the semi-finals of the European Championship — a tournament the Soviet Union won once (the inaugural tournament in 1960), as well as reaching three other finals.
Moscow clubs CSKA, Spartak and Lokomotiv, along with Zenit Saint Petersburg, had featured prominently in European club competitions prior to the ban.
In April this year, FIFA president Gianni Infantino spoke of his hope that Russia can be introduced back into the football fold “soon”. Any return, however, is dependent on the ongoing situation in Ukraine.
In September 2023, UEFA announced plans to allow Russian under-17 teams to compete in its competitions, but the proposals were later withdrawn.
Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, right, pictured alongside FIFA’s president, Gianni Infantino, at the 2018 World Cup final (Ian MacNicol/Getty Images)
Ethiopia
Population: 135,472,051
World Cup appearances: 0
Africa’s second most populous nation, behind Nigeria, Ethiopia were an early powerhouse in the continent’s football scene.
As one of the few independent African states in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War, Ethiopia were a key player in early editions of the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON); a tournament they won in 1962 with two more top-four places following that decade.
However, they have not progressed beyond the competition’s group stage since and have only qualified for two of the past 22 tournaments.
This pattern is replicated at club level. Cotton Factory Club, who were dissolved in 2000, and Saint George SC, both reached the semi-finals of the African Cup of Champions Clubs in the 1960s. No Ethiopian club side has progressed as far into continental competition since.
Despite football’s popularity, the absence of infrastructure, the lack of investment in youth football and external influences have seen the national team struggle. They finished fifth in their six-team qualification group for the 2026 World Cup with nine points from 10 matches.
Philippines
Population: 116,786,962
Previous World Cup appearances: 0
The Philippines’ most popular sports are basketball and boxing, inherited from American rule. As a result, football has not enjoyed the same funding as in other Asian nations and the Philippines have struggled to develop top-level players.
Having dropped outside the top 200 in the FIFA rankings in the early 2000s, the Philippine Football Federation (PFF) launched a fresh drive to bring in more foreign-born talent. This meant multiple English-born players representing the country; Chad Gould, who played his youth career at Bournemouth and Southampton, and the Greatwich brothers — Chris, Phil and Simon — alongside two brothers who had the greatest impact: Phil and James Younghusband.
The 2010s saw an upturn in results. The Philippines attained their highest FIFA ranking of 111, recorded their first win in World Cup qualifying and reached the group stage of the Asian Cup for the first time, in 2019.
The Philippines are currently ranked 141st by FIFA and they were eliminated in the second round of 2026 World Cup qualifying, picking up just one point from six matches.
They did qualify for their first Women’s World Cup in 2023, defeating co-hosts New Zealand 1-0.
Vietnam
Population: 101,598,527
Previous World Cup appearances: 0
Vietnam was impacted by conflict for much of the latter half of the 20th century, which unsurprisingly limited its potential for sporting success. It was not until the 1990s that a professional structure could be put in place.
Despite limited resources compared to continental rivals, Vietnamese teams have provided AFC Champions League Two semi-finalists in 2009 and 2019. The AFC Champions League Elite has, inevitably, provided a tougher challenge, with Vietnam rarely having a representative beyond the group stages.
Vietnamese football has economic limitations compared to Asian rivals, yet the population’s passion for the sport is well-established. A 2022 survey by Nielsen found that 75 per cent of Vietnam were football fans, a higher percentage than any other Asian nation.
Ranked 111th by FIFA, there is clearly potential to break into the top 100 and be in contention for future World Cup appearances. They were eliminated in the second round of Asian qualifying for 2026, with two wins from six group games proving insufficient to advance.
As with the Philippines, Vietnam reached the 2023 Women’s World Cup for the first time. Despite losing all three group games, the success demonstrated the nation’s potential to compete at the top level.