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The New York Jets versus the Cleveland Browns. Talk about a stinker, right? While last weekend’s matchup certainly wasn’t the highlight of Week 10, it might have been the most important game of the week — at least in one regard.

That game between two NFL bottom-feeders went a long way in determining who would win the race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Funny enough, the team that benefited the most wasn’t even involved. It was the Tennessee Titans, who were on bye last week. The Jets’ win over the Browns pushed Tennessee’s odds of securing the top pick up from 25 percent to 35 percent. Meanwhile, the Jets’ reward for winning their second game of the season was seeing their odds of securing the top pick drop from 39 percent to 26 percent.

Of course, there’s still plenty of time for the draft order to get shaken up. Heading into this Week 11, 12 teams have three wins or fewer, with nine of them still having at least a one percent chance at picking first in April. As the season winds down, each week will have huge ramifications on draft position, and some games, like the Browns against the Jets, are much more important than you might think.

With that, we’re going to take a look at the six teams with the best odds of securing that No. 1 pick and which games might have the biggest effect on the race. The data, as always, will be powered by my NFL Projection Model and can also be seen on our NFL Playoff Simulator’s “2026 Draft” page. The awesome part about our new simulator is that you can play out the season for any team, selecting which games you think they will win or lose and seeing how those affect their draft odds. Go check it out.

In the meantime, let’s get back to the teams with the best odds of picking first in April.

Tennessee Titans

You don’t need a projection model to tell you why the Titans are the favorites to land the first pick for the second year in a row. They’re the only team in the NFL with one win! My model gives them a 35 percent chance to “earn” the top pick, as their most likely end-of-season record is 3-14 (2-15 isn’t far off).

Obviously, it’s not great to have the No. 1 pick two years in a row, but with their franchise QB already on the roster (hopefully), it could give the Titans a chance to trade back to a QB-needy team and stockpile picks for their rebuild.

The Titans face an average schedule the rest of the way, which includes matchups with three expected playoff teams — the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. Tennessee also has a pair of huge games with draft implications coming against the Browns and the New Orleans Saints.

Key remaining games: Week 14 at Browns, Week 17 vs. Saints

New York Jets

The Jets were the big sellers at the trade deadline last week, as they shipped cornerback Sauce Gardner to Indianapolis and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to Dallas. Without a franchise quarterback on the roster, it’s not difficult to see why the team was comfortable selling for future assets. Unfortunately for the Jets’ top-pick odds, they followed that up by beating the Browns. Either way, New York still sits in a prime position for the first pick at 26 percent.

One thing working in the Jets’ favor is that they face the sixth-hardest schedule the rest of the season, per my model. Two games remain against the New England Patriots, one in Baltimore and one in Buffalo, which should be four losses.

Key remaining games: Week 14 vs. Miami Dolphins, Week 16 at Saints

New York Giants

The Giants are our second New York team in the top three — tough times in the Big Apple, eh? — and our second team that has already fired its coach (Titans). The axing of Brian Daboll this week shows you just how poorly the Giants have played this season, even with stellar production from first-round pick Jaxson Dart under center. Dart is currently in the concussion protocol, and while that’s obviously not good, his absence should help the Giants’ draft odds.

Entering Week 11, the Giants have a 12 percent chance of earning the No. 1 pick. They will face the 15th-hardest remaining schedule, per my model.

Key remaining games: Week 15 vs. Washington Commanders, Week 17 at Las Vegas Raiders

New Orleans Saints

Hey, look. It’s another team that won a game this past weekend and hurt its draft status. Though, unlike the Jets, their win was an upset, as the Saints took down the five-win Carolina Panthers on the road. The Saints own a nine percent chance to pick first in next year’s draft, as they look forward to getting more information on rookie quarterback Tyler Shough and boosting their roster’s talent.

The issue for the Saints is that they play my model’s second-easiest schedule from here on out. That means there will be plenty of opportunities for wins, which is why their odds sit so low despite being one of the worst overall teams, per my model. Their upcoming games against the Jets and Titans will be paramount for their draft position.

Key remaining games: Week 16 vs. Jets, Week 17 at Titans

Las Vegas Raiders

In what was hyped as a promising season with new coach Pete Carroll and newly acquired quarterback Geno Smith, the Raiders find themselves with just two wins and an eight percent chance to pick first. Things could be worse, as they had a shot at upsetting the AFC West-leading Broncos in Denver last week, but ultimately, bad teams stay bad.

The Raiders play the 10th-hardest remaining schedule, which isn’t too shocking considering the strength of the AFC West. Add in games against the Philadelphia Eagles and the Houston Texans, and the Raiders are in a good position to lose a lot of games.

Key remaining games: Week 12 vs. Browns, Week 17 vs. Giants

Cleveland Browns

The Browns entered the chat for the top draft pick with their loss to the Jets on Sunday. Cleveland is still a long way off, mostly because of its stellar defense, but the Browns only have two wins and six games remaining against teams in the playoff hunt. Yes, I’m counting the Cincinnati Bengals in there, with quarterback Joe Burrow slated to return in December. Either way, no matter how good their defense is, the Browns’ offense is anemic and will give them a chance to lose any game the rest of the way.

Despite playing those six teams in the playoff hunt, the Browns play the seventh-easiest remaining schedule. It turns out the model thinks two of those hopeful playoff teams — the Chicago Bears and the Pittsburgh Steelers — aren’t all that good, and that’s before discussing what the Bengals might look like in Week 18.

Key remaining games: Week 12 at Raiders, Week 14 vs. Titans