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Good morning, hockey folks. Here’s hoping you’re having as good a start to your fall as Nathan MacKinnon, who is on a blistering 150-point pace while leading the NHL in goals (14), assists (19) and points (33). His Avalanche improved to 12-1-5 last night.
Let’s get to it.
Will these 3 disappointing teams figure it out?
With the NHL’s schedule ultra-condensed due to the 2026 Olympics, we’re zipping through the hockey calendar. Some teams will hit 20 games this weekend, so we can probably stop saying “it’s early” every few sentences.
U.S. Thanksgiving is less than two weeks away, and that’s often a big demarcation line for teams to either bank a decent lead toward a playoff spot or fritter away enough points that the postseason looks unlikely.
With that in mind, I gathered a few of our beat writers to chat about the three teams off to the most disappointing starts. Just how much trouble are they in? Are they contemplating firings or big trades? Is it salvageable?
Here’s my power ranking of putrid so far, leaving off teams such as Calgary and Nashville, which many expected to struggle this year:
St. Louis Blues (6-8-3, 29th place)
Vancouver Canucks (8-9-1, 28th place)
Toronto Maple Leafs (8-8-2, 26th place)
(Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
Question 1: What’s been the biggest problem(s)?
• Jeremy Rutherford on the Blues: “No. 1, they can’t keep the puck out of the net. No. 2, they’re getting very little offensive production from their top six. The Blues have the second-worst goals-against average (3.76) and worst save percentage (.869) in the league. In 17 games, they’ve given up five-plus goals seven times. You can put a lot of the blame on the goaltenders – both have struggled mightily – but there’s more to it than that.
As for the lack of production, this says it all: Jake Neighbours leads in goals (six), and he’s played just eight games. Pius Suter, a depth center and penalty-kill specialist, leads in points (10). Fourth-liner Oskar Sundqvist leads in assists (seven), and he’s played nine games.”
• Thomas Drance on the Canucks: “Their penalty kill has been atrocious, the D-zone coverage has been beyond spotty and they’ve struggled mightily to control play. Ultimately, though, we’d have to spotlight the injuries. The Canucks have used an astounding 28 skaters through 18 games. At center, Teddy Blueger and Filip Chytil have combined for seven games played at a position they were too shallow at to withstand such absences.
• Jonas Siegel on the Leafs, who lost to the Kings in OT last night: “The Leafs have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They’ve surrendered far too many odd-man rushes and other juicy scoring opportunities, leaving their goalies – mostly Anthony Stolarz – hanging out to dry. That’s another big issue: The goaltending, under tremendous strain, hasn’t been elite like it was last season. Stolarz has struggled in year two as a Leaf, and Joseph Woll has yet to play.”
Question 2: Is the coach/GM on the hot seat? Could a key player get traded?
• Rutherford, Blues: “There definitely could be trades coming. The Blues’ core has been under fire the past few seasons, but a near-upset of the Winnipeg Jets in last year’s playoffs masked many of the issues. Now that they’ve come back to earth, some fans seem to be in favor of dealing Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich and perhaps even Robert Thomas. Kyrou was recently a healthy scratch, and Buchnevich has zero even-strength points in his last 12 games. But all three have full no-trade clauses.”
• Drance, Canucks: “GM Patrik Allvin and president of hockey operations Jim Rutherford are now in their fifth season and have one playoff berth to show for it. A season where they severely underachieve could harm their job security, especially if a disappointing season further clouds captain Quinn Hughes’ future.”
• Siegel, Leafs: “If their current level of play keeps up a little longer, head coach Craig Berube’s job could be in jeopardy. He’s only in his second season in Toronto, but expectations are so high – Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment president Keith Pelley recently told The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun that it was “go time” (whatever that means) – that if they continue to scuffle along, a change could be in order.”
Question 3: Do they play their way out of this and make the playoffs?
• Rutherford, Blues: “Last February, the Blues were on the outside looking in. But they went 19-4-3 in their last 26 games, helping them grab the No. 2 wild card in the West. It’s only November and they’re only a few points back, but there are a lot of teams ahead of them this time. I find it hard to believe they could orchestrate another comeback like that.”
• Drance, Canucks: “If they can fix their PK, get key bodies back and continue on an upward trajectory at five-on-five, there’s a path to getting back into the mix. It won’t be easy. Given Hughes’ ability, we can’t write them off just yet, but their pathway to competing for a playoff spot is getting narrower by the day.”
• Siegel, Leafs: “It’s the likelier scenario given some of the talent at the top of the roster. John Tavares is having one of the best seasons of his career at 35, William Nylander might lead the league in scoring and Matthew Knies is stepping into stardom. And the Leafs have made the playoffs nine seasons in a row. To do it again, their defensive play will have to tighten considerably, their goaltending will have to improve and they’ll have to find a way to keep hold of the puck more often.”
💡 MirTrivia, November edition
I’ll warn you ahead of time: This one is a trick question 🪄
Connor Bedard (Chicago), Leo Carlsson (Anaheim) and Macklin Celebrini (San Jose) are all tied for third in NHL scoring with 26 points.
When was the last time three players aged 20 and under have been top five in league scoring this far into a season?
Coast to Coast
(Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
💙 The hockey journalism world lost a titan with the death of Larry Brooks this week. I’ll miss our chats, Brooksie — you were one of a kind.
🦷 As usual, Fluto Shinzawa has a good read here: Why don’t hockey players ever get their teeth fixed?
🏅 Speaking of the young guys lighting up the league this year, Sean McIndoe digs into the most important changing-of-the-guard seasons in NHL history. I do believe we’re in one this season.
📣 Pierre LeBrun has his weekly rumblings from around the league, including interesting tidbits on Leo Carlsson, Adrian Kempe, Steven Stamkos and Blake Coleman.
🎰 What are prediction markets, and why is the NHL partnering with them even as they face legal challenges? I took a deep dive into the latest odd shift in the sports betting landscape.
🎤 On the latest episode of “The Athletic Hockey Show,” Hailey Salvian and Sean Gentille are joined by Michael Russo to talk about the Canada-USA Women’s Rivalry Series and the slow start for the Wild.
Cool Your Jets
(Harry How / Getty Images)
What is going on in Winnipeg?
One team I didn’t include in the disappointing list above was the Winnipeg Jets because, well, they’ve been winning a decent number of games (10-7-0 after a rough 5-3 loss in Seattle last night).
So what’s the problem?
Well, Winnipeg’s underlying numbers are absolutely horrible. In terms of possession at even strength, they were 30th entering the Kraken game. In expected goals, the Jets were last at 42.8 percent.
That is not often a recipe for success in this league, even if you have Connor Hellebuyck playing out of his mind in net. In fact, it’s more likely to be the profile of a lottery team. (It’s where San Jose and Chicago were last year, percentage-wise.)
So, I asked our Jets beat writer, the lovely Murat Ates, if last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners are in for some pain. He pointed to a run of injuries (Adam Lowry, Dylan Samberg and Cole Perfetti), as well as the loss of Nikolaj Ehlers as an unrestricted free agent, as part of the problem.
But the Jets also now have “a roster that’s among the oldest and slowest in the NHL,” Ates said. “That’s put Winnipeg in its own zone more often, kept it there longer, and stopped the Jets from chaining together cycling shifts in the offensive zone. Good health will help (all three injured players have just come back), but Winnipeg’s lack of pace is an element to keep an eye on.”
In other words, the Jets may be a team that slides back in a tough Central Division, especially with Utah knocking on the door. For more from Murat, here’s one of his latest pieces on the Jets’ odd start.
🪄 Your MirTrivia Answer
The last time three 20-and-under players have been top-five in league scoring this late in a season was … never. In 108 NHL seasons. 😳
The closest time was actually fairly recent, in 2016-17, when Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews and William Nylander were all top-five on Oct. 29 of that season. But that was only eight games into the season. (A young Wayne Gretzky, Laurie Boschman and Mike Gartner made it to Oct. 24 atop the league in 1980, too, but that was only seven games in.)
The most 20-and-under players who have finished in the top five in scoring in the same season is just one, something that has happened 12 times. So, if Bedard and Celebrini are both there in April, it’ll make NHL history. (Carlsson turns 21 next month.)
Thanks to the fine folks at the NHL’s stats department for those nuggets.
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