LAS VEGAS — Context is crucial when analyzing anything said during the baseball offseason. Executives may evade questions in one breath, but give subtle hints in the next. Nothing is ever so straightforward at a time when everything is supposed to be on the table.
Perhaps, then, it is worth parsing some of general manager Dana Brown’s most meaningful comments from his 40-minute session with reporters at the GM meetings. Trades of some sort seem inevitable for the Houston Astros this winter, despite Brown downplaying the possibility.
Without prompting, Brown attempted to brush aside speculation that the Astros are shopping first baseman Christian Walker, who is entering the second season of a three-year, $60 million free-agent contract.
“I know we have people talk about Walker, but we haven’t talked about Walker in any trade,” Brown said. “Walker is our everyday first baseman.”
Brown avoided any absolutes while remaining accurate: Walker is the Astros’ first baseman for as long as he is on the roster. A slew of rival executives and agents in Las Vegas this week wondered how much longer that will be the case.
Few other players on Houston’s roster are as expendable — and expensive — as Walker. Another is Isaac Paredes, whom MLB Trade Rumors projects will make $9.3 million in arbitration this winter. Acquiring Carlos Correa to play third base leaves Paredes without a position, problematic for someone Brown said “carries too much value in our lineup.”
“I’m sure there would be a market for Paredes if we decide to trade him. But right now we think he’s a guy that we do not want to trade,” Brown said.
“He’s one of the best guys at seeing pitches and working counts, and it’s one of the reasons why we went out and traded for him,” Brown said. “We need that value in our lineup. It’s the exact direction we’re trying to take, and we feel like if we trade him, we’d be weakening our lineup.”
That alone is more forceful than anything Brown said about Walker, perhaps offering a glimpse into the general manager’s thinking. Barring an offseason injury, it makes little fiscal or functional sense to carry both players, who could combine to earn more than $30 million next season.
If the Astros acquire another infielder, it would be tough to keep Isaac Paredes (left) and Christian Walker (right). (Tim Warner / Getty Images)
Perhaps Brown and his baseball operations department are aware of it. Two league sources said this week that Houston is among a slew of clubs that have expressed interest in St. Louis Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan, a left-handed hitting second baseman who would address the lineup’s two most glaring needs.
Donovan, who made his first All-Star team last season, also drew the Astros’ interest during last July’s trade deadline. The Cardinals did not move any of their controllable position players, but are more amenable to doing so this winter under the new president of baseball operations, Chaim Bloom.
MLB Trade Rumors estimated Donovan will earn $5.4 million in arbitration this winter. He is under team control for two more seasons and would solve the Astros’ uncertainty at second base at a fraction of either Walker’s or Paredes’ salary.
Though Bloom did not take over the Cardinals’ front office until last month, it is worth noting the extensive discussions between Houston and St. Louis last season surrounding Nolan Arenado. Arenado is not an Astros target this winter, but the familiarity of both front offices shouldn’t be overlooked.
The Astros will have competition to acquire Donovan, but the mere fact that they have interest accentuates the fluidity of both Brown’s remarks and the baseball offseason. Acquiring Donovan, or anyone of a similar profile, would make it almost impossible to carry Walker and Paredes on the same roster.
Still, Brown laid out scenarios for it to happen. Whether it is the most sensible allocation of their money must be considered. Brown mentioned playing Yordan Alvarez in left field, Jose Altuve at second base and slotting Paredes as the team’s designated hitter.
Brown didn’t rule out using Paredes at second base in these situations, but in an unprompted ranking of Paredes’ best positions, said, “I’d probably rank it DH, first base some, third base some, second base.”
Remember, the Astros asked Altuve to move off of second base last season due, in part, to his defensive decline. Altuve turns 36 in May, too, and Houston must be mindful of his age. Brown also mentioned the need for Walker to get some “breathers,” but shouldn’t that also be paramount for Altuve?
Brown acknowledged the setup he envisioned may only work at Daikin Park, where the Crawford Boxes create an easier left field for either Alvarez or Altuve to navigate. Playing either man in the outfield, along with Paredes at second base, would drastically weaken Houston’s defense.
“I think we’re going to be giving guys more of a break this year, and there will be moving parts, but when we move the parts, (creating an) offensive lineup is going to be a big focus,” Brown said. “When we score four or more runs, the team is really good. We want to put some more runs on the board.”
Walker underwhelmed in his first season as an Astro, but still led the team with 27 home runs. Fifteen of them came after the All-Star break, a 64-game stretch in which he slugged .488 with a .799 OPS. Whether the oblique injury Walker sustained in spring training impacted his first-half swoon is a legitimate question.
Either way, Walker has value, though probably not enough for another team to pay the full balance of his contract. Not once during his meeting with reporters Wednesday did Brown label Walker off-limits in trade. Bear in mind, though, that Walker’s deal contains a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block a deal to six teams.
That Walker is even being bandied in trade discussions isn’t due to his underperformance. Houston must address its starting rotation and will require some payroll flexibility to make necessary moves. Even if a team takes on just half of Walker’s $20 million salary, it would make a difference.
Half of Walker’s salary is also what Paredes is projected to make in arbitration — and it’s clear Paredes would bring back far more value than a soon-to-be 35-year-old first baseman. Perhaps the Astros could even use him in a potential deal to acquire a starting pitcher.
Paredes’ patience and plate discipline were needed in Houston’s free-swinging lineup. That the offense languished in Paredes’ late-season absence only accentuated how valuable he’d become. His pull-happy profile is perfect for Daikin Park, where he hit 11 of his 20 home runs last season en route to his second career All-Star appearance.
“Right now,” Brown said, “we have no interest in trading him.”
Right now.