Week 12 gave us an Alabama upset, which drove Ty Simpson‘s chances of winning the Heisman into the dirt, while Texas A&M completed a 27-point comeback to keep Marcel Reed firmly in the race. However, the now three-man race still feels like a two-man show in my eyes.
Vaughn Dalzell’s Heisman Rankings
1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana Hoosiers (+100)
Next Game: Bye Week
Last Game: 299 passing yards on 22/24, 4 TDs vs Wisconsin (31-7 win)
Season Stats: 2,641 passing yards, 216 rushing yards, 35 total TDs, 5 INTs
Fernando Mendoza is now a +100 favorite to win the Heisman and I agree with that movement. After the comeback winning drive at Penn State, it felt like Julian Sayin would have to do something outstanding to top that, and he hasn’t.
Indiana rolled Wisconsin, 31-7, and Mendoza had one of his most efficient outings. He completed 22-of-24 passes for 299 yards and four touchdowns to improve to 11-0. Indiana has a bye week, then goes to Purdue for the regular-season finale as large favorites. The Hoosiers will then play Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, which could basically be the deciding factor in some people’s minds for the Heisman.
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State Buckeyes (+200)
Next Game: Saturday 12 PM ET vs Rutgers
Last Game: 184 passing yards on 23/31, 1 TD vs UCLA (48-10 win)
Season Stats: 2,675 passing yards, 80.1 comp %, 25 TDs, 4 INTs
Julian Sayin posted the second-lowest passing output of the season (184 yards) and went back-to-back weeks with one touchdown pass after recording seven consecutive games with multi-touchdown performances through the air. Despite winning 48-10, Sayin didn’t have any moments that helped his Heisman campaign.
In fact, that game hurt his odds and it’d likely because his receivers are hurt. Carnell Tate missed the past two games and Jeremiah Smith left the Wisconsin matchup early with a leg injury. Not having the best receiver combination in the country over the past two weeks has severely hurt Sayin’s case and I think boosted Mendoza’s.
3. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M Aggies (+550)
Next Game: Saturday 12 PM ET vs Samford
Last Game: 439 passing yards on 22/39, 3 TDs, 2 INTs vs South Carolina (31-30 win)
Season Stats: 3,023 total yards, 61.5 comp %, 28 total TDs, 8 INTs
In the first half at South Carolina, Marcel Reed‘s Heisman odds were in the gutter, but he revived them in the second-half completing a 27-point comeback — the largest in Texas A&M history. The Aggies’ defense pitched a second-half shutout down 30-3 at halftime.
Reed finished the game with a career-high 439 passing yards and threw three touchdowns in the second half after tossing two interceptions in the first half. I moved Reed up to third place last week and he stays there this week. A&M hosts Samford next, so Reed should stat pad as much as possible to move up in this race.
Honorable Mentions
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State Buckeyes (+6000)
Next Game: Saturday 12 PM ET vs Rutgers
Last Game: 4 receptions, 40 yards, 10.0 ypc vs UCLA (48-10 win)
Season Stats: 69 receptions, 902 yards, 13.1 ypc, 11 total TDs
Jeremiah Smith exited the UCLA game with a leg injury. Smith finished the game with four receptions for 40 yards. Head coach Ryan Day said there are no long-term concerns for Smith. However, in my opinion with Rutgers on deck before Michigan, there is a chance Smith doesn’t play or is limited versus the Scarlet Knights.
Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+4000)
Next Game: Saturday 3:30 PM ET vs Syracuse
Last Game: 25 touches, 167 total yards, 1 rushing TD vs #22 Pitt (37-15 win)
Season Stats: 1,135 rushing yards, 274 receiving yards, 17 total TDs
Jeremiyah Love had another monster game, this time going off for 147 rushing yards and a touchdown on 23 carries versus #22 Pitt. Notre Dame rolled the Panthers, 37-15, and Love crossed the century mark and 200 total touches on the year. Love won’t win the Heisman, but he and Ahmad Hardy (300 yards, 3 TDs last week) of Missouri will be in a battle for the Doak Walker Award.
Gunner Stockton, Georgia Bulldogs (+2500)
Next Game: Saturday 7:30 PM ET vs #10 Texas
Last Game: 258 passing yards on 24/29, 5 total TDs, 1 INT vs #10 Texas (35-10 win)
Season Stats: 2,269 passing yards, 350 rushing yards, 27 total TDs, 3 INTs
Gunner Stockton and Georgia earned a big home win over #10 Texas and despite his impressive outing of five total touchdowns and 258 yards, his odds barely shifted Stockton has two or more passing touchdowns in four consecutive games and 15 total scores overall in that span. Stockton has collected three ranked wins on the season, but only has one game of 300 or more passing yards and two games of 50-plus rushing yards.
Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt Commodores (+1500)
Next Game: Bye Week
Last Game: 377 passing yards, 112 rushing yards, 4 total TDs vs Auburn (45-38 OT win)
Season Stats: 2,440 passing yards, 613 rushing yards, 28 total TDs, 5 INTs
Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt had a bye week after their epic comeback OT win over Auburn. Vanderbilt hosts Kentucky this weekend, then closes the regular season at Tennessee. This is certainly one of the best seasons in program history and Pavia has put the Commodores on the national stage, but he won’t be awarded the Heisman for it. Vanderbilt’s two losses and multiple narrow victories were costly in a close race with multiple quarterbacks.
Stock Up
3. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M Aggies (+550)
Next Game: Saturday 12 PM ET vs Samford
Last Game: 439 passing yards on 22/39, 3 TDs, 2 INTs vs South Carolina (31-30 win)
Season Stats: 3,023 total yards, 61.5 comp %, 28 total TDs, 8 INTs
Last week I moved Reed up to third and this week he almost became No. 2 on my list. A 27-point comeback solidified his stock and gave him another Heisman moment a week after Fernando Mendoza earned his.
Stock Down
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State Buckeyes (+6000)
Next Game: Saturday 12 PM ET vs Rutgers
Last Game: 4 receptions, 40 yards, 10.0 ypc vs UCLA (48-10 win)
Season Stats: 69 receptions, 902 yards, 13.1 ypc, 11 total TDs
There’s no denying that Jeremiah Smith took a major hit in the Heisman race by not playing the full game versus UCLA. Smith had back-to-back games of 100-plus receiving yards and three total touchdowns entering the UCLA contest, so I am not sure there is a path for Smith anymore. His odds reflect that going from +2500 to +6000.
Ty Simpson, Alabama Crimson Tide (+15000)
Next Game: Saturday 2 PM ET vs Eastern Illinois
Last Game: 326 passing yards on 28/42, 1 TD, 1 INT vs Oklahoma (23-21 loss)
Season Stats: 2,787 passing yards, 66.9 completion %, 24 total TDs, 2 INTs
After the home loss to Oklahoma, Ty Simpson‘s Heisman campaign is over. Simpson turned in four straight games of 66% or lower for completion percentage with six touchdowns to one interception in that span — nothing exciting or exceptional.
In the loss to the Sooners, Simpson completed 28-of-42 passes for 326 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. It was back-to-back weeks for Simpson throwing one touchdown pass after opening the year with eight consecutive games of two or more touchdown passes. His two interceptions is one of the best marks in the country, but his second came in the loss to Oklahoma.
Alabama plays FCS Eastern Illinois this week and goes to 4-6 Auburn the following weekend for the regular season finale. Neither contest will hold much value for Simpson and the Tide dropped back to third in the SEC standings with the loss to Oklahoma, so there’s literally no route to the Heisman for Simpson.
My Heisman Picks
I picked Carson Beck and Dante Moore to pick the Heisman in the first four weeks of the season and both are over with. Three weeks ago, I added Fernando Mendoza (+260) and the Indiana Hoosiers to win the championship (+600).
With Mendoza at +100 odds, I would still say that is the best play on the board and the likely winner. If I was to go elsewhere, it would be Marcel Reed of Texas A&M. Reed could go 12-0 as they have a home game versus Samford, then a road trip to face the Texas Longhorns remaining, plus he’s had some big moments.
Reed tossed the game-winning touchdown pass versus Notre Dame in a 41-40 road win, plus the 27-point comeback win this past weekend at South Carolina. If Reed adds another memorable moment at Texas to finish the season or wins the SEC Championship — it’s a serious conversation between Mendoza, Sayin, and Reed, so the Aggies quarterback is the value pick.
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