The Bank of Canada has made clear that its until-recently ”preferred” measures of core inflation are less meaningful in a volatile economy. (Andrew Francis Wallace/Toronto Star via Getty Images) · Andrew Francis Wallace via Getty Images
Canada’s annual inflation rate dipped to 2.2 per cent in October, according to Statistics Canada data published Monday. The data were in line with the expectations of financial industry observers, according to consensus estimates published by CIBC Economics.
Gas prices were once again a main driver, with prices in October falling 9.4 per cent compared to a year earlier. That was a steeper drop than in September, when a 4.1 per cent decline in gas prices helped push CPI up to 2.4 per cent year-over-year. Excluding gasoline, consumer prices rose 2.6 per cent in October, unchanged from September.
“On the surface, this looks to be a mildly friendly report with headline and median inflation rates dipping,” BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said in a note to clients. “However, the sources of relief were well-known ahead of time, and the new news here is not great, driven by persistent strength in insurance costs and a snap higher in cell charges.”
Home and auto insurance costs continued to climb, up 6.8 and 7.3 per cent respectively, year-over-year. Statistics Canada noted that over five years, “prices for homeowners’ home and mortgage insurance rose 38.9 per cent nationally, while prices for passenger vehicle insurance premiums rose 18.9 per cent.”
Prices for wireless phone services rose 7.7 per cent, the first annual increase in two and a half years, following price hikes from several major carriers.
Natural gas prices fell 17 per cent year-over-year. Grocery prices were up 3.4 per cent year-over-year in October, down from the 4.0 per cent figure in September. However, Statistics Canada’s report noted that “prices remained elevated and have exceeded overall inflation for nine consecutive months.”
“Overall, while inflation decelerated in October, the move was in line with expectations and it would take a longer period of easing price pressures, combined with indications of economic growth deteriorating again, to bring the Bank of Canada back off the sidelines,” CIBC economist Andrew Grantham wrote. “We continue to forecast no change in the overnight rate through to the end of next year.”
The Bank of Canada’s (BoC’s) two preferred measures of inflation — which strip out some volatile prices — eased in October. CPI-median fell to 2.9 per cent from 3.1 per cent, while CPI-trim fell to 2.9 per cent from 3.0 per cent. However, The BoC has stated that it is becoming less reliant on those data points in isolation.
On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.2 per cent per cent in October. Seasonally adjusted, CPI rose 0.1 per cent.