ESPN analyst suggests Texas could earn at-large bid with win over Texas A&M despite three losses
PublishedNovember 18, 2025 7:00 PM EST•UpdatedNovember 18, 2025 6:49 PM EST
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The Texas Longhorns entered the 2025 regular season with expectations of being the best team in the country.Â
Among the most expensive, or literally the most expensive, roster in the country. The preseason Heisman Trophy favorite and arguably the most hyped quarterback in decades, Arch Manning. A fearsome defense that looked to be the strongest unit, maybe outside the Ohio State Buckeyes, of any single unit in college football.
The Longhorns also faced a daunting schedule, with an out-of-conference schedule including those same Buckeyes, and in-conference games against the Oklahoma Sooners, Georgia Bulldogs and Texas A&M Aggies. And while there’s been a few moments of brilliance, including a win over Vanderbilt and an impressive performance against Oklahoma and John Mateer returning from injury.
But outside that, Texas has looked nowhere close to preseason expectations. And despite the difficult schedule, they’ve done little-to-nothing to warrant inclusion in the College Football Playoff. Don’t tell that to Kirk Herbstreit and the ESPN Playoff Predictor, however.
AUSTIN, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 01: Arch Manning #16 of the Texas Longhorns warms up prior to the game against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on November 01, 2025 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)
Herbstreit, ESPN, Can’t Get Over Texas
As time was running out in Georgia’s blowout win over the Longhorns on Saturday, Herbstreit started the campaign for a potential 9-3 Texas team to make the College Football Playoff.
“It will be a discussion with being an at-large team if they were to win at home against Texas A&M. So if you look at this, oh, three losses, they’re done, I don’t know just quite yet.”
ESPN’s Playoff Predictor was even more optimistic. That model gave a 9-3 Texas team a 45% chance to make the playoff, with a greater likelihood of hosting a game than a 10-2 Miami team would have of making the playoff at all.
That’s not great!
There’s no reasonable case for the Longhorns to get in, even at 9-3. Per ESPN SP+, an advanced ranking system created by Bill Connelly, Texas projects forward as the 21st best team in College Football. Yes, they’ve played a difficult schedule, but how they’ve played is also important, and, put simply, they haven’t played like one of the best 12 teams in the country. Or, more specifically, one of the best teams deserving of an at-large playoff berth.
For context, the Iowa Hawkeyes are the 15th best team, per SP+, because they’ve played elite teams extremely tough and their defense ranks sixth in the country in efficiency. Texas, despite the huge NIL budget, is ninth.Â
Even by Resume SP+, which “compares each team’s scoring margin (capped at 50 points for a given game) to what an average top-five team would be expected to generate against a given opponent,” the Longhorns are just 26th. That’s behind USF and Illinois. Nobody’s begging for Illinois to make the playoff.
Obviously, that number would improve were the Longhorns to beat A&M. But A&M, despite their record and the difficulty in achieving it, isn’t as impressive as they seem. SP+ has the Aggies at No. 9 after a woeful first half performance against South Carolina on Saturday. Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech rank 1-2-3, for reference.Â
Texas is a solid, above-average team that’s struggled against elite competition, while showing flashes of elite potential, particularly on defense. If they had a different brand name, like USF or Illinois, or didn’t enjoy the “hypothetical” protection of the SEC, they wouldn’t remotely be in the conversation. Yet here we are. We shouldn’t be.