Eight-time top 10k finisher Zophar hosts his weekly Q&A, giving his opinion on how to replace Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.6m), whether to give up on Nick Woltemade (£7.4m), and if Matheus Cunha (£7.9m) is a better option than Bryan Mbeumo (£8.5m).
Q: Without sitting on the fence, who are the top three Gabriel replacements?Q. Would you keep doubling up on Arsenal’s defence?Q. Is Gabriel to William Saliba (£6.0m) a no-brainer? We have seen Saliba’s set-piece threat when Gabriel is out, plus he is only 11% owned.
(via FPL Virgin, Atimis and FPL Sanky)
A: Unsurprisingly, a large chunk of the questions this week are about replacing Gabriel. At the time of writing, we’ve not heard from Mikel Arteta, but rumours from David Ornstein say that the Brazilian will be out for a minimum of one month. This makes him a definite sell.
There are four options that I like: Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m), either Saliba or Jurrien Timber (£6.2m), Crystal Palace’s Daniel Munoz (£5.8m), or a cheaper defender like Chris Richards (£4.5m).
Van Dijk is the obvious replacement, as Liverpool’s upcoming fixture run has been well-documented on this site. The reigning champions’ underlying defensive numbers have been poor, as they’re in the bottom five for expected goals conceded (xGC) over the last six matches.
But clean sheets against Real Madrid and Aston Villa show signs of improvement, as Arne Slot has returned largely to a team that brought him initial success.
His defensive contribution (DefCon) potential is great, with only Marcos Senesi (£5.0m) racking up more of these points amongst defenders. On the face of it, their upcoming opponents aren’t traditionally good for gaining these against, as Nottingham Forest, West Ham United, Leeds United and Sunderland are quite content to concede possession.
However, Liverpool have a weakness when facing long balls. It’s a tactic that these sides will likely use, boosting van Dijk’s DefCon prospects. As for set-piece threat, he’ll usually score a few per season, meaning there’s a good chance of an upcoming 17-pointer.
Moving on to Timber and Saliba, most Gabriel owners probably own another Arsenal name at the back. If you already own Timber, I don’t think I’d go and buy Saliba. The latter’s DefCon potential and goal threat looks minimal. Though he did profit in Gabriel’s absence at set-pieces last season, he is nowhere near as good as the Brazilian in dead-ball situations.
Yet his minutes are a bit more secure than Timber’s over a busy period, and Arteta will be loath to leave out a second key centre-back. Timber is poor for DefCon, but boasts an attacking threat, as seen below.
The big question is how much worse will the Arsenal defence be without Gabriel?
If you feel that their clean sheet prospects worsen, then I think moving to Virgil over Timber makes sense. I think they’ll score similarly over the next five to six Gameweeks, though in isolation I prefer Timber because Arsenal’s defence is on another level.
Elsewhere, Munoz is second for expected goal involvement (xGI) amongst defenders. As Palace face Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley and Fulham over the next four, there might be a haul coming. Could the team’s performances suffer with such a congested schedule? Possibly. But they still have a better defence than Liverpool, and Munoz has so much attacking upside.
Perhaps you could downgrade Gabriel to somebody like Richards, then use that saved money to upgrade someone like Enzo Fernandez (£6.7m) to a Manchester United midfielder.
Richards is actually on par with van Dijk for DefCon per 90, and those looking to Free Hit in Gameweek 13 won’t see much difference in likely clean sheets.
These are all viable options, depending on how you like to play and the structure of your team.
Q: I’ve had Nick Woltemade since Gameweek 5 and have stuck with him. Encouragingly, one could argue that he single-handedly took Germany to the World Cup. But in FPL, I am tempted to get Igor Thiago (£6.3m) or Jean-Philippe Mateta (£8.1m) instead. Does it make sense to give him a few more weeks, or sell?Q. What do we do with Woltemade? If Free Hitting in Gameweek 13, the three surrounding matches are at home – albeit the first is against Manchester City.Q. Are there any Newcastle United players worth getting for their decent run, apart from Woltemade?
(via I Have No Wirtz, Magic Zeico and Punned It)
A: I think if you don’t own Mateta, I would move Woltemade towards the Frenchman this week. But if, like my pod partner Lateriser, you own all three of Mateta, Woltemade and Erling Haaland (£14.9m), I would keep faith.
A Gameweek 13 Free Hit could briefly bring in Thiago, while Woltemade has encouraging home matches against Tottenham Hotspur and Burnley straight after. They could be massive. Plus, I don’t think Yoane Wissa (£7.3m) will eat into his minutes anytime before then.
In terms of other Newcastle assets, I think Malick Thiaw (£4.9m) is worth looking at from Gameweek 14 onwards. Other attackers’ minutes are likely to be shared.
Q: How important do you think home/away form is, when looking at a team’s decline? For example, should we trust Newcastle to do well at home since their away form has collapsed, and vice versa with Spurs?
(via z13)
A: Home and away does have a massive difference. Brentford are second for expected goals (xG) at home, but around mid-table when away. Nathan Collins (£4.9m) has spoken in a post-match interview about how he wants teams to dread coming to their stadium, and we’ve seen Newcastle mirror this.
Of course, this has to be read alongside fixtures, as sometimes teams have had far more difficult opponents on the road, which was an unusual anomaly for Brentford at a similar point last season.
I do think things will level out to an extent in Spurs and Newcastle’s case, less so with Brentford.
Q: Igor Thiago or Danny Welbeck (£6.5m) as my Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) replacement?
(via @CastleRockDG76)
A: Welbeck has an excellent set of short-term fixtures so, despite some concerns about his fitness and injury risks, I think I’d pick him over Thiago for now. It’s close, but Welbeck has three home games in the next four and Thiago has it the other way round. That tilts it towards the Englishman.
Q: Should it be Bryan Mbeumo or Matheus Cunha, considering Mbeumo soon leaves for AFCON?
(via @Karan_G14)
A: Shown below, Mbeumo is third amongst all players for non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) this season.
I wouldn’t worry about the AFCON departure, though, because you’re still getting a good chunk of time from him. I think he’s the best attacking Man United option.
Q: To take Mohamed Salah (£14.2m) or not is the biggest dilemma. Please discuss.
(via @somu_sj)
A: Could Salah score big over the next six before AFCON? Yes, absolutely. A great captaincy option in Gameweeks 12, 14 and 16 when Haaland is away at Newcastle, Fulham and Palace? Yes.
But he’s not worth ripping up your team for. I think midfielders such as Mbeumo, Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) and Bruno Fernandes (£8.9m) could all come close for points, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Haaland outscored the Egyptian during those away games.
So, while I wouldn’t put anyone off buying and captaining Salah, I don’t think it’s worth weakening your squad significantly for.
