By Eric Koreen, Joel Lorenzi and Hunter Patterson
The Eastern Conference is the new Western Conference, baby.
That might be a slight exaggeration. By most measures, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets are the two best teams in the league. The rest of the West’s top six — the Rockets, Lakers, Spurs and Timberwolves — clock in as potential spoilers, most of whom have long runways for success.
However, through the first month of the season, the East seems like the deeper, more competent conference. Heading into Friday’s play, 11 East teams were at .500 or better, compared to just eight in the West. The teams that are struggling in the East were supposed to struggle, largely having the longer term in mind. All of the disasters (Pelicans, Clippers, Grizzlies, Kings and Mavericks) are in the West. Teams in the East currently have a .493 winning percentage (111-114 before tonight’s two), compared to .481 and .472 in the prior two seasons.
Yet, the East picture is muddled. With the second and 11th seeds separated by all of 2 1/2 games before Thursday, it is hard to know what is real and what is not. For some insight into that, The Athletic’s Eric Koreen, Joel Lorenzi and Hunter Patterson, who cover the Raptors (10-5!), Bulls (8-6!) and Pistons (13-2!!!), respectively, got together to chat about the state of the no-longer Leastern Conference.
1. How would you describe the current state of the Eastern Conference?
Koreen: Fun and chaotic. I watched the Charlotte Hornets play in Toronto Monday and concluded they aren’t far away from being decent. If that’s true, then the 11 teams ahead of them in the standings must be compelling.
I’m still not sold on all of the surprise stories, but I can’t confidently declare any of them frauds, which is a big step forward compared to my preseason thoughts. It seems like a combination of intriguing styles (Toronto, Miami), the maturation of young talent (Jalen Johnson, Josh Giddey) and old-fashioned continuity (Cleveland, Detroit) is yielding some promising returns. I wouldn’t pick any Eastern Conference team beyond the Cavaliers and Knicks to be a true top-six threat if they were in the West, but I’m prepared to confront the possibility the gap is closing.
Lorenzi: Worthwhile. Not that this notion has entirely escaped Western Conference purists, but the East has been viewed as an inferior league, the red-headed stepchild you hide beneath the staircase. The contenders remain easier to count in the West, but if nothing else, the East is fun again. Worth a click on League Pass. Deserving of conversation when it comes to the playoff picture.
Detroit can claim a culture again. Miami has somehow found new regular-season answers. The Raptors! Charlotte has a believable template in place (and the favorite for Rookie of the Year?) and is on the All-League Pass ballot. Whether you believe in the Bulls’ system or are confused by the direction — or simply enjoy Voochi Mane buzzer beaters — they possess a pulse. It’s been a minute since the Central Division could inflate its chest like this.
Patterson: Frenetic. Aside from the bottom-four teams in the conference, a four- or five-game win streak could completely shift the landscape of the East. All it takes is a few teams to heat up or cool down to rearrange the current standings.
The East has long been viewed as the inferior conference. But if this early-season trend of competitiveness continues, having a winning record may not be enough to crack the Play-In Tournament.
2. Which East team’s level of success has surprised you the most?
Koreen: I’ll go with the team I cover: Toronto. I thought the Raptors had a chance to fight their way into the top half of the Play-In Tournament, and that still might be where they end up. However, the Raptors have handled several teams in this tier and look somewhere between good and very good on both ends.
The Raptors have embraced coach Darko Rajaković’s call for defensive pressure, trying to turn that into transition opportunities whenever possible. Only the Bulls and Heat (see, more razzle dazzle from the East) operate in transition more often than the Raptors, and no team is close to their fast-break production. While the Brandon Ingram fit has been clunky at times, his half-court skills have freed Scottie Barnes to play a more all-around game. Barnes is an early All-NBA and All-Defense candidate.
Lorenzi: The Raptors. In such a deep league, and apparently a deep conference, Toronto’s expensive core didn’t seem adequate next to its peers entering the season. Nor did I think the team would seize the identity it has, particularly this early. I still have questions about Brandon Ingram beyond his fit — where he stands as a ceiling raiser? — but he isn’t outright hurting the operation.
Patterson: Like Eric, I will go with the team I cover — the Pistons.
Detroit decided to bet on internal growth this offseason, and it has paid dividends and then some. Cade Cunningham continues to track as a superstar. He’s calculated in pick-and-roll actions. He’s comfortable when teams send multiple defenders and seeks out advantages for his teammates. And if you don’t blitz him, he’s adept at scoring in isolation.
Jalen Duren has emerged as the Pistons’ second scoring option and is an early contender for the Most Improved Player. He just turned 22 earlier this week and is on pace to average 20.6 points and 11.9 rebounds per game.
Ausar Thompson has shown steady offensive improvement and remains one of the most versatile defenders in the association. Jaden Ivey has yet to even make his regular-season debut. And I can’t forget about the revelation that is Daniss Jenkins. The Pistons should be a problem in the conference as the season progresses.
3. Which team do you think has the best chance to disrupt the assumed New York-Cleveland conference finals, and has your opinion changed since the preseason?
Koreen: Detroit and Orlando. I’m not moving off of the Magic, my preseason pick, despite their tough start to the season. It’s not surprising to me their identity seemed lost as they tried to integrate Desmond Bane, a huge addition. While the Magic could use more shooting, I think Bane is too adaptable and the defensive talent on the roster is too real not to figure it out. Last week’s win in New York displayed their potential.
I’m coming around to the idea that the Pistons might be at or above their level, though. Cunningham is a full-blown superstar. Duren has turned into a terrifying big man. Moreover, the Pistons know who they are, and the eventual return of Ivey could give them another gear, even if it takes a moment to integrate him back into the rotation. If Ivey can take some offensive pressure off Cunningham in April and May, the Pistons have an outside shot at a Finals run.
That was a surprising sentence to write.
Lorenzi: I’ll go with Detroit too. Lazy, I know. But I thoroughly enjoy their frontcourt rotation and am intrigued by their rim protection. In 110 minutes together, Duren and Isaiah Stewart boast a plus-18.6 net rating. The Pistons’ brawn and lineup versatility are equally important commodities in the postseason along with Cunningham, who seems improved as a high-usage engine, and specifically in the pick-and-roll with Duren as a partner. By all accounts, Cunningham is shouldering a chip. I’m putting stock in what last year’s playoff experience meant for Detroit.
Patterson: I promise I’m not a homer, but I’ll go with the Pistons again. I admittedly did not expect Detroit would get off to this great a start, so my opinion has indeed changed since the beginning of the year.
The Pistons’ 109.6 defensive rating trails only the Thunder entering Friday’s games. The aforementioned depth is becoming a serious strength. And the playoff disappointment the players went through as a group last season gave way to offseason “chips on their shoulders” as they refined their games during the summer.
Cunningham and Stewart, who is in the midst of his most impactful season, have both alluded to the team believing it should have beaten the Knicks had it been completely healthy. This season’s team, from the front office to the coaching staff to the players, has embraced “controlled chaos.” It enjoys physically imposing its will on opponents.
It’s a long season, so an early hot start doesn’t guarantee anything. But the Pistons believe they have all the necessary tools to become the East’s best team. And when they’re 13-2 and atop the conference, that’s a difficult point to contest.
4. Which Eastern Conference team’s good start is the biggest mirage?
Koreen: It would be easy to point to the Bulls and their negative point differential. I think they will end up in the Play-In, so they are part of my answer, I guess.
However, I don’t trust Atlanta. More than that, I don’t trust Trae Young. That the Hawks have played better without him than with him is a concern for me. Jalen Johnson looks like a good bet to be a first-time All-Star, but I don’t trust this team to put up a top-15 offense without Young. I think his presence wrecks the Hawks’ defense, though. Add in Kristaps Porziņģis’ injuries, and I don’t believe this team will find the necessary balance this year. I think the bones of a really good team are here, but it will take another transaction cycle to get to the right roster.
Lorenzi: I don’t have a firm answer. I think the Pistons are in for adversity because their schedule hasn’t been difficult thus far. That doesn’t disprove who they are, though.
The Bulls have played a tough schedule, though their volatility remains confusing. They lost in double overtime to Utah in a stellar Coby White return, only to beat Denver without him a night later behind Jevon Carter and friends.
But of all the teams who’ve raised an eyebrow, I also lean toward Atlanta. None of the Hawks’ East counterparts have questions about whether their franchise player actually weighs them down. Then again, none poses as paradoxical a situation as Trae Young, who has hurt the Hawks’ defense for so long and yet proves necessary in turning their offensive gears. I love Jalen Johnson’s ascension, and I like their group of wings.
But while the Hawks might have more on-paper talent than the Bulls and should exceed them in the standings, one distinction remains: Chicago’s identity doesn’t change with Josh Giddey out of the lineup. Their system is built to his strengths, yet isn’t crippled when he’s absent.
Patterson: The Philadelphia 76ers. “Good start” is relative considering they’re 9-6 but I don’t think their style of winning is sustainable. There’s too much on Tyrese Maxey’s shoulders as it stands. The Sixers’ success hinges on the health of Joel Embiid and Paul George, two players who are notoriously unavailable.
Maxey is on pace for a career year and should be on his way to his first All-NBA selection. He’s a high-level scorer who can shoot the laces off the ball. VJ Edgecombe is firmly in the Rookie of the Year race. Quentin Grimes has been pulling his weight.
But at some point, it will boil down to Embiid or George being healthy enough to support Maxey. And frankly, as much as I’ve appreciated their games for years now, I don’t see either veteran suiting up enough to maximize the season Maxey is having.
5. By the end of the regular season, how will we view the Eastern Conference relative to the West?
Koreen: The East will be considered the deeper of the two conferences, but without the West’ talent at the top. Before considering their geography, is there any team in the East you would take over Oklahoma City, Denver, Houston or San Antonio in the next two or three years? I still think the answer is no.
I can see how a few Eastern Conference teams can build toward contender status. Two teams likely to be also-rans this year, Boston and Indiana, could be right back at the top of the standings next season once their stars get healthy. It’s possible we might discuss making the East Play-In before next season like we discussed making the West Play-In before this one.
Without a major transfer of talent, though, I believe the Western Conference will still have the majority of championship equity.
Lorenzi: It’s a results league. Even teams who reach the conference finals can be easily dismissed. With the most obvious contenders in the West — there’s a gap behind Oklahoma City — it’s a fool’s errand to convince viewers to be moved by this relative parity in the East. And with several of the East’s emerging teams relying on still-budding cultures and systems, there will inevitably be some inconsistency.
I think fans will be grateful for two conferences worthy of their undivided attention. And I really, really wish Indiana and Boston had a say in this. But don’t expect folks to feel like the East measures up just yet.
Patterson: It will be more competitive as a whole than the West but not as top-heavy.
The Thunder and Nuggets both know the rigors of the postseason. Now that the Rockets and Lakers are settling in, they may eventually join the Thunder and Nuggets in that category.
But this will be the year the East earns more respect as a competitive conference that isn’t considered as much a cake walk as the way it used to be viewed.