The good, the bad, and the ugly in the US peace plan for Ukraine

The good, the bad, and the ugly in the US peace plan for Ukraine – Atlantic Council

JUST IN

“Thursday is it.” Today US President Donald Trump gave Ukraine a Thanksgiving deadline to approve a twenty-eight-point peace plan. The proposal reportedly gives Russia large chunks of Ukrainian territory and restricts Ukraine’s armed forces, while providing Ukraine a new security guarantee—though without Western troops. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the choice could come down to “loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner.” As always, we turned to our plan of asking our experts to assess the proposal and what to expect next.

TODAY’S EXPERT REACTION BROUGHT TO YOU BY

Daniel Fried (@AmbDanFried): Weiser Family distinguished fellow and former US assistant secretary of state for Europe

John E. Herbst  (@JohnEdHerbst): Senior director of the Eurasia Center and former US ambassador to Ukraine

Leslie Shedd (@leslieshedd): Nonresident fellow at the Eurasia Center and former senior advisor to members of the US Congress, as well as US senatorial and presidential candidates

What’s in the deal

Dan calls the US proposal “a hot mess” because it “is sloppy, internally inconsistent, and retreats from Trump’s stated position on ending the conflict—for example, that the current front line be the cease-fire line.”

The idea of granting Russia all of the Donbas region even without the Kremlin having conquered it on the battlefield is “a fatuous idea,” John argues, “rewarding the aggressor.”

But John adds that the inclusion of language on security guarantees is “a possible positive,” and a strong bilateral guarantee from the United States “would certainly deter future Russian aggression, because the Russians are afraid of our military.”

Dan also notes the deal’s “workable elements, including a provision that all commitments to Russia fall if it again attacks Ukraine” and points out that “we saw earlier this year how a bad initial US proposal—the ‘minerals deal’—could be transformed into a reasonable deal for development and a plus for US-Ukraine relations.”

Trumpology

Leslie says Trump believes that the refusal of his predecessor, Joe Biden, “to send Ukraine the weapons it needed to fully repel Russia early in the invasion (and before Russian troops became entrenched inside the country) created a stalemate that Ukraine is unlikely to break.”

So in Trump’s mind, Leslie says, “a negotiated settlement that includes giving up some land is likely the only way to stop the killing.”

With European leaders now trying to get involved, John says he expects Trump to be receptive to their views, given that “several of those European leaders have terrific relations with Trump.” European leaders’ moves to increase “defense spending and willingness to put European troops on the ground in Ukraine have been important in making it harder for Putin to sell snake oil to the White House.”

John notes that “Trump is a mercurial figure,” who moves in different directions as he seeks a solution. “There have obviously been times when that’s worked for him. I don’t think that works in the current war because Putin’s aim has not changed. He is not going to give up his desire of achieving effective political control of Ukraine.”

The next moves

“The Ukrainians are in a tight place,” Dan says, because if they reject the plan “they are apt to trigger another Trump explosion and even more US withdrawal of support for Ukraine.”

So Dan advises Zelenskyy to work with Trump on the text. “It will not be pretty. But the Ukrainian objective should be to make sure the peace plan is not a disaster and to avoid blame for its likely failure.”

If they do reach a deal, Leslie says the Trump administration should submit the agreement to the US Senate to ratify as a treaty. “This will send a powerful message to Putin that Republicans and Democrats in both the executive and legislative branches are united in their commitment to following through on the security guarantees if [Putin] puts a toe into Ukraine again.” 

The good, the bad, and the ugly in the US peace plan for Ukraine

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