There isn’t much separation at the top of the free-agent market for starting pitchers. The class lacks a megastar, and multiple scouts labeled it as a flawed group, leading some organizations to more aggressively explore answers on the trade market. The starters available in free agency, however, can certainly at least help lead a rotation.

The industry consensus has Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, Dylan Cease and Ranger Suárez as the top available free-agent starters. But in what order? Who is the best investment? And who rounds out a top five? That’s where things become debatable.

So, The Athletic asked 10 pro scouts to rank those four starters — Valdez, Imai, Cease and Suárez. We also asked them to throw in a fifth name to round out the top five and to explain each decision. As expected, the results were close.

“There’s definitely no clear number one for me,” one National League scout said. “Catch me on a different day and I might have a completely different ranking just because there isn’t a huge gap between one through four or even one through five. It’s tough to rank them.”

Below are the results from our scout rankings, which awarded four points for a first-place vote, three points for a second-place vote, two points for a third-place vote and one point for a fourth-place vote.

RkPitcherPts (1st)

1

31 (5)

One of the five scouts who ranked Valdez first offered a succinct analysis based on a track record of durability and consistency: “He’s good, and he posts.”

Valdez, 32, boasts an impressive resume. Over the last 25 years, he is one of just three pitchers (Max Fried and Felix Hernandez are the others) to have at least four seasons with at least a 23 percent strikeout rate, a 50 percent groundball rate and a 3.50 FIP or lower over at least 130 innings. Since 2020, no one has logged more innings in the playoffs (85) than Valdez, who owns a 4.34 ERA in the postseason.

Valdez deserved to finish first in the poll, multiple scouts said, because of the combination of an elite groundball rate, a low walk rate, an ability to rack up strikeouts and the ability to tackle a healthy workload. Perhaps that is no surprise. After all, Valdez is the highest-ranked pitcher on The Athletic’s Free Agent Big Board (No. 5 overall). Of the 78 pitchers with at least 500 innings over the past five seasons, Valdez ranks No. 1 in groundball rate and No. 3 in homer rate.

One scout, however, ranked him fourth, which demonstrates the range of opinions when choosing between the four pitchers. Those who valued Valdez less than the others cited makeup concerns over the cross-up during a September game with catcher César Salazar, and Valdez’s strong-yet-not-spectacular 2025 season in which he had a 3.66 ERA/3.37 FIP in 192 innings.

On the other hand, two scouts believe there is a sizable gap between Valdez and the rest of the group, though that stance was not reflected in the poll results.

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2

29 (4)

Cease, 29, is tantalizing yet enigmatic. One American League scout joked that he was a “beast” in “even years.” The issue is that he is closer to league average in odd years. Consider Cease’s ERA+ each season since 2022: 180, 97, 118, 94. But he finished second in the poll (and is No. 6 on the Big Board) because of his pure stuff, big weapons and high whiff rate against righties and lefties. Also, he has logged five straight seasons of at least 32 starts. He is a model of durability despite undergoing Tommy John surgery early in his career.

The Chicago Cubs understood Cease would soon need that procedure when they selected him in the sixth round of the 2014 draft, buying out his college commitment to Vanderbilt with a $1.5 million bonus and a comprehensive plan to supervise his recovery. Team officials were quickly blown away by Cease’s adherence to that program, demonstrating the physical and mental growth required to develop into a frontline starting pitcher.

Growing up in the Atlanta area, Cease made baseball a year-round pursuit. His interests meshed well with a Cubs organization that was trying to incorporate new technology and share more information about pitch shapes, delivery movements and biomechanics.

“At that time,” Cease recalled during an interview at Wrigley Field this year, “I was just learning everything about pitching. In high school, I was a shortstop and a pitcher, but I didn’t know a whole lot about pitching. I remember just trying to pick everyone’s brains and see what works for them.”

During that period at the Cubs’ Arizona complex, Cease hung out with Justin Steele, a future All-Star from the same draft class. One day, they went to a local gym with a basketball court. Cease started awkwardly dribbling the ball like someone who hadn’t played a lot of hoops, Steele once recalled. Then Cease gathered himself and staged his own dunk contest.

“I’ve only had one day in my life like that where I was doing these crazy dunks,” Cease said. “This must have been peak rehab where I had just worked out for 10 months straight. We were at, like, a Life Time or one of those places, and I was doing these wild dunks. I can’t do them right now. I don’t know how I was doing it, but I was doing wild stuff then.”

That freakish athleticism and natural curiosity about pitching are part of what make Cease so intriguing that he finished just two points off being the No. 1 pitcher in our poll, though others still see some flaws.

“He didn’t have a good year last year, and that year bothered me a little bit,” said one NL scout who ranked Cease fourth. “I like the stuff, but his pitchability is iffy.”

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3

22 (1)

After watching Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a 5-foot-10 right-hander, come from Japan and dominate in the major leagues, at least a couple of scouts said they no longer harbor size concerns if a pitcher showcases athleticism and a strong arsenal.

Scouts said the 27-year-old Imai, a right-hander listed at 5-foot-11, checks those boxes.

“He is not a real physical guy, but he’s a super athlete,” said one NL evaluator who watched Imai pitch in Japan multiple times. “I don’t think he has quite the stuff Yamamoto has, but it’s in the same ballpark.”

Imai, who was the fourth-ranked pitcher on the Big Board and No. 10 overall, attracted a first-place vote from one scout on our panel who rated all of his pitches major-league average or better. Among a handful of offerings, he throws an impressive fastball and splitter. Also, one scout said he does the “little things,” such as field his position and hold runners.

Still, there are concerns. Imai will face a workload adjustment and will need to change his attack plan to have big-league success, an AL East scout said. Another evaluator wondered about Imai’s body language, saying he often looked bored when he was pitching well. Scouts agreed that Imai doesn’t have the same high-end stuff as Yamamoto, nor did he overwhelm hitters the same way as Yamamoto in Japan.

“He’s not quite the type I’d want to be more than a mid-rotation guy,” an NL Central scout said.

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4

18 (0)

On the Big Board, Suárez ranked a smidge higher than Imai, coming in at No. 9. Our panel of 10 scouts liked Suárez. They just didn’t love him. Turns out what is dependable isn’t always exciting.

“You know what you’re getting with Ranger, and he has also had postseason success,” an AL East scout said. “Ranger is boring and useful, and those guys help you win the World Series.”

Scouts docked Suárez, 30, due to concerns with his durability and stuff. But he is coming off his best statistical season as a full-time starter. In 2025, the lefty had a 3.20 ERA/3.21 FIP in 157 1/3 innings, the most he has logged in his career.

“Suárez, I like,” an AL evaluator said, “but I’m not sure how far I’d step out on that.”

Such is the dilemma of this year’s free-agent class of starting pitchers.

Who rounds out our top five?

One scout went as far as suggesting King should rank third, behind only Valdez and Cease.

“I like King more than Cease but have Cease ahead for durability reasons,” the scout said. “I think you can probably squeeze out another year or two of King at 2024 production levels and would also say Cease has probably peaked.”

Another evaluator chose Kelly, 37, for the veteran’s projected performance at his price (The Athletic’s Tim Britton predicted Kelly to get two years, $46 million). On the Big Board, King is No. 12, but Kelly (20), Gallen (21) and Giolito (30) aren’t too far behind. In this market, that only makes sense.

“King, I love the competitor, love the person,” one AL evaluator said. “I’d be willing to bet on him on a midyear, midrange contract, like three to four years.”

That’s the thing about this class, the evaluator went on to explain. Are teams better served paying more than $150 million for Cease or Valdez? Or is it better to pay less for someone like Gallen or King?

“I just think there are good mid-rotation starters out there,” the same AL evaluator said. “Those guys might do pretty well. But these starting pitchers, there’s not a ton of separation.”

— Ken Rosenthal contributed to this story.