CLEVELAND, Ohio — What are the odds of Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders becoming a viable long-term starting QB in the NFL?
Not good.
I’m not talking about the “franchise guy,” such as Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. It’s more along the lines of a top 20 QB, a guy who can start for years in the NFL.
Joe Flacco is a guy like that. Baker Mayfield has become a guy like that.
The Browns drafted Gabriel in the third round out of Oregon. Sanders was a fifth-round pick from Colorado in 2025.
Let’s look at the list of top 20 QBs in the NFL this season. I am using ESPN’s QBR ratings. Let’s see where these guys were drafted:
Dak Prescott, 2016, fourth round pick (No. 135) by Dallas. Drake Maye: 2024, No. 3 pick by New England.Patrick Mahomes, 2017, No. 10 pick by Kansas City.Sam Darnold, 2018, No. 3 pick by the Jets.Jordan Love, 2020, No. 26 pick by Green Bay.Matt Stafford, 2009, No. 1 pick by Detroit.Lamar Jackson, 2018, No. 32 pick by Baltimore.Daniel Jones, 2019, No. 6 pick by the Giants.C.J. Stroud, 2023, No. 2 pick by Houston.Jaxson Dart, 2025, No. 25 pick by Giants.Mac Jones, 2021, No. 15 pick by New England.Josh Allen, 2018, No. 7 pick by Buffalo.Baker Mayfield, 2018, No. 1 pick by Cleveland.Justin Herbert, 2020, No. 6 pick by Chargers.Jared Goff, 2016, No. 1 pick by Rams.Jalen Hurts, 2020, second round (No. 53) by Philadelphia.Michael Penix, 2024, No. 8 pick by Atlanta.Caleb Williams, 2024, No. 1 pick by Chicago.Bo Nix, 2024, No. 12 pick by Denver. Jayden Daniels, 2024, No. 2 pick by Washington. 
Patrick Mahomes was a No. 10 pick in the 2017 draft. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)What does this tell us?Out of the top 20 QBs, only two were NOT picked in the first round — Prescott and Hurts.Four were the No. 1 picks in their respective drafts — Stafford, Mayfield, Goff and Williams.Four more were picked between No. 2 and No. 5 — Daniels, Stroud, Maye and Darnold.That means EIGHT of the top 20 QBs this season were selected in the top FIVE picks of their respective drafts.First rounders picked between No. 11 and 32 — Jackson (32), Love (26), Mac Jones (15) and Nix (12). 
Baker Mayfield is one of four No. 1 pick overall in ESPN’s 20 highest rated QBs this season. APBreaking it downOut of the top 20 QBs, only TWO were taken after the first round.Only five were picked at No. 25 or lower — Prescott (No. 135), Hurts (No. 53), Jackson (No. 32). Love (No. 26) and Dart (No. 25).Mahomes is considered the best QB of his generation. He was a No. 10 pick.
Brian Sipe was the No. 330 pick in the 1972 draft. cleveland.comWhat about the Browns?
Browns fans love to mention Brian Sipe, who was picked No. 331 in the 1972 draft. That was the 13th round. They only have seven rounds today.
A QB who would have been in the top 20 this season if healthy is Brock Purdy. He was the 262nd selection — the final pick of the 2022 draft by San Francisco. So let’s throw in Purdy: That still means 17 of the top 20 were first round picks.
Of course, there’s Tom Brady — one of the greatest ever. New England picked him in the sixth round (No. 199) in 2000. The Browns took QB Spurgeon Wynn (No. 183) in front of him.
So, there are exceptions.
But the best Browns QB in the last 40 years is Bernie Kosar. He was considered the top QB in the 1985 draft. He went No. 1 in the supplement round as he came out early.
With Gabriel and Sanders, the Browns are fishing for a big-time QB in a pond where there are mostly minnows. At least, that’s what history tells us.
Teams find backup QBs in the lower rounds. Jacoby Brissett (third round, 2016, New England) and Colt McCoy (third round, 2010, Browns) and Charlie Frye (2005, third round, Browns) are examples.
Tyrod Taylor (sixth round, 2011, Baltimore) is now starting for the Jets. He was the Browns’ opening day starter in 2018. Brian Hoyer played for 15 years in the NFL. The St. Ignatius product from Michigan State was an undrafted free agent. He was a backup with eight different teams, some of those more than once.
Jacoby Brissett was a third round pick, the same as Dillon Gabriel.John Kuntz, cleveland.comSomething to consider
Do teams give up on highly rated QBs too soon?
Our lists indicate that’s the case.
The 2018 draft included Mayfield, who had a promising start with Cleveland. The Browns then came down with a virus I call “Deshaun Watson fever.” They gave up on Mayfield after the 2021 season. He floated to Carolina and the Rams in 2022, before recreating himself as a Pro Bowl QB in Tampa Bay in 2023.
Darnold was the No. 3 pick in 2018 by the Jets. He was in Carolina the same time as Mayfield in 2022. The Panthers gave up on both of them.
It took a while, but Darnold reinvented himself as a starting QB with Minnesota in 2024. He’s now having a good year with Seattle. Daniel Jones was dumped by New York and is now having a career year with Indianapolis
Mac Jones was cast off by New England and has played well for San Francisco. Goff was traded by the Rams, who thought he was so-so. He’s been a very good starter for Detroit.
The Browns will likely draft another quarterback — this one probably in the 2026 first round where they have two picks.
Perhaps they should fish in the comeback pool for a guy who was once highly regarded then discarded. They started to do that with Kenny Pickett. He was a first round pick by Pittsburgh in 2022. The Browns had him in training camp. He was supposed to compete for the starting job, but pulled a hamstring in training camp.
The Browns traded Pickett to Las Vegas for a fifth round pick, where he is a backup. He was never given a real chance to win the job in Cleveland.
Mac Jones is under contract in 2026 for $3.9 million with the 49ers. He was signed to back up Purdy, who was injured. Jones is the 11th rated QB this season by ESPN, and has a 5-3 record as a starter. Perhaps he could be a trade target for the Browns.
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