Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Jay Kelly. (L-R) George Clooney as Jay Kelly and Adam Sandler as Ron Sukenick on the set of Jay Kelly. Cr. Peter Mountain/Netflix © 2025.
Peter Mountain/Netflix
Golden Globes Awards Commentary (Updated: Nov. 25, 2025): Up is down, left is right, and — somehow — the Golden Globes’ comedy races are far more competitive than their drama counterparts. The unpredictability of this awards season continues to defy precedent.
On the film side, the Globes are looking to be one of the most volatile stops on the circuit. But this year brings a twist few saw coming: the comedy/musical categories are suddenly more stacked, prestigious and aggressively contested than the drama races, overturning long-held assumptions about Hollywood’s “fun” categories.
Traditionally, the Globes’ comedy/musical fields were where lighter crowd-pleasers or less awards-centric films found a comfortable landing — think “Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason.” The drama races, by contrast, were reserved for the big Oscar hopefuls. Not this year.
Leading the genre shift is Universal’s “Wicked: For Good,” which has dominated the box office and reviews, placing it in a heated three-way matchup with Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” and A24’s “Marty Supreme.” In Josh Safdie’s ping-pong dramedy, Timothée Chalamet finds himself in prime position for his first Globe win — if he can fend off fellow heavyweights such as Leonardo DiCaprio (in “One Battle After Another”), George Clooney (“Jay Kelly”) and a resurgent Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”).
Yorgos Lanthimos continues his blistering Globes momentum with Focus Features’ “Bugonia,” following previous nominations for “Poor Things” and “The Favourite.” Stars Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons are poised to make strong bids in the acting races. Add to that Rian Johnson’s “Wake Up Dead Man,” the third entry in the “Knives Out” franchise and Park Chan-wook’s South Korean dark dramedy “No Other Choice” and the comedy/musical field becomes even tighter.
With six nominees per category — and eight for the Globes’ box office and cinematic achievement race — the competition remains fierce from top to bottom.
In lead actress (comedy/musical), Cynthia Erivo emerges as the clear front-runner for returning as Elphaba in Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked: For Good.” Her co-star Ariana Grande is also a major player in supporting actress. Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”), Chase Infiniti (“One Battle”), Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”) and Amanda Seyfried (“The Testament of Ann Lee”) are all vying for the remaining spots, with Dakota Johnson (“Materialists”), Pamela Anderson (“The Naked Gun”) and Globe darling Olivia Colman (“The Roses”) looking for an opportunity to sneak in.
On the lead actor side, Chalamet may have the edge — he’s earned four Globe acting nominations already. But DiCaprio — already a three-time Globe winner — remains a formidable challenger for “One Battle After Another.” Plemons continues to rise with “Bugonia,” and veterans Clooney, Hawke and Daniel Craig (“Wake Up Dead Man”) aim to secure the remaining slots. And there’s another musical in the mix: the filmed version of the Broadway production of “Merrily We Roll Along,” which is eligible for Globes, but not Oscars.
Still, the drama categories remain prestigious, even if more settled. “Sinners” leads the dramatic field, with “Hamnet” and “Sentimental Value” close behind. The latter has a surefire contender with Stellan Skarsgård looking to embark on the road to the Oscar. In drama actress, his co-star Renate Reinsve looks to take on Jessie Buckley, a locked and loaded contender for “Hamnet.”
“Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan looks strong in drama actor, bolstered by the film’s overall chances and, hopefully, Ryan Coogler’s directing and screenplay bids.
A compelling subplot comes from Brazil’s Wagner Moura in the thriller “The Secret Agent.” The “Narcos” star could mirror last year’s breakout Fernanda Torres, who won for “I’m Still Here” and then scored a surprise Oscar nomination. That film even landed a best picture nod, raising the question: Can “The Secret Agent” continue Latin American cinema’s award-season surge?
As voting begins, the comedy/musical categories’ rise mirrors a broader realignment in Hollywood’s awards landscape. No longer the Globes’ consolation bracket, these races now contain some of the season’s most exciting contenders — and genuine Oscar hopefuls. Which film will pack the hardest punch?
The Golden Globes film predictions are below.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture (Drama)
Image Credit: Agata Grzybowska
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios); “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.); “Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios); “A House of Dynamite” (Netflix); “Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures); “Nuremberg” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios); “Train Dreams” (Netflix); “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Willa); “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros.
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“No Other Choice” (Neon)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Alternates: “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Bugonia” (Focus Features); “Eternity” (A24); “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24); “Merrily We Roll Along” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Pillion” (A24); “Rental Family” (Searchlight Pictures); “Roofman” (Paramount Pictures); “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features); “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor (Drama)
Image Credit: Courtesy of NEON
Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Colin Farrell, “Ballad of a Small Player” (Netflix)
Oscar Isaac, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon) ***
Alternates: Will Arnett, “Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures); Russell Crowe, “Nuremberg” (Sony Pictures Classics); Daniel Day-Lewis, “Anemone” (Focus Features); Frank Dillane, “Urchin” (1-2 Special); Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress (Drama)
Image Credit: Kasper Tuxen / Mubi
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Laura Dern, “Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jennifer Lawrence, “Die My Love” (Mubi)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Sydney Sweeney, “Christy” (Black Bear Pictures)
Tessa Thompson, “Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Alternates: Kathleen Chalfant, “Familiar Touch” (Music Box Films); Julia Garner, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.); Lucy Liu, “Rosemead” (Vertical); Helen Mirren, “Goodbye June” (Netflix); Imogen Poots, “The Chronology of Water” (The Forge); Julia Roberts, “After the Hunt” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor (Comedy/Musical)
Image Credit: A24
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24) ***
George Clooney, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Brendan Fraser, “Rental Family” (Searchlight Pictures)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Lee Byung Hun, “No Other Choice” (Neon)
Alternates: Hugh Jackman, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features); John Leguizamo, “Bob Trevino Likes It” (Roadside Attractions); Josh O’Connor, “Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix); Robert Pattinson, “Mickey 17” (Warner Bros.); Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia” (Focus Features); Channing Tatum, “Roofman” (Paramount Pictures); Tonatiuh, “Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress (Comedy/Musical)
Image Credit: ©Universal/Courtesy Everett Collection
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Alternates: Olivia Colman, “The Roses” (Searchlight Pictures); Jamie Lee Curtis, “Freakier Friday” (Walt Disney Pictures); Jodie Foster, “A Private Life” (Sony Pictures Classics); Dakota Johnson, “Materialists” (A24); June Squibb, “Eleanor the Great” (Sony Pictures Classics); Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby” (A24)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Image Credit: Ken Woroner/Netflix
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Alternates: Billy Crudup, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix); Delroy Lindo, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.); William H. Macy, “Train Dreams” (Netflix); Andrew Scott, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics); Alexander Skarsgård, “Pillion” (A24); Jeremy Strong, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection
Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Zoey Deutch, “Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix)
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.); Nina Hoss, “Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios); Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon); Jennifer Lopez, “Kiss of the Spider Woman” (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions); Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.); Hailee Steinfeld, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Director — Motion Picture
Image Credit: Warner Bros.
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Park Chan-wook, “No Other Choice” (Neon)
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Mona Fastvold, “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Alternates: James Cameron, “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios); Guillermo Del Toro, “Frankenstein” (Netflix); Kleber Mendonça Filho, “The Secret Agent” (Neon); Oliver Laxe, “Sirât” (Neon); Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon); Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Screenplay — Motion Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
Alternates: “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Robert Kaplow; “Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy; “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — Jafar Panahi; “Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie; “Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix) — Holly Gent, Vincent Palmo;
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Score
Image Credit: Courtesy of Prime
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“A House of Dynamite” (Netflix) — Volker Bertelmann
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Hildur Guðnadóttir
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
Alternates: “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) — Simon Franglen; “Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Jerskin Fendrix; “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer; “Jay Kelly” (Netflix) — Nicholas Britell; “Marty Supreme” (A24) — Daniel Lopatin; “Tron Ares” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Nine Inch Nails
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Song
Image Credit: Netflix
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) — “Dream as One” by Miley Cyrus, Simon Franglen, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — “Drive” by Ed Sheeran, John Mayer, Blake Slatkin
“Highest 2 Lowest” (A24/Apple Original Films) — Aiyana-Lee Anderson and Nicole Daciana Anderson
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — “Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — “I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — “The Girl in the Bubble” by Stephen Schwartz
Alternates: “Clothed by the Sun” by Daniel Blumberg from “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures); “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” by Alice Smith, Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.); “Lose My Mind” – Don Toliver, Doja Cat, Hans Zimmer, Ryan Tedder, Grant Boutin from “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.); “No Place Like Home” by Stephen Schwartz from “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures); “Train Dreams” by Nick Cave, Bryce Dessner from “Train Dreams” (Netflix) — “Zoo” by Shakira and Ed Sheeran from “Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Animated Feature
Image Credit: DISNEY
“Arco” (Neon)
“Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle” (Crunchyroll)
“Elio” (Pixar)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
Alternates: “In Your Dreams” (Netflix); “A Magnificent Life” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Scarlet” (Crunchyroll); “The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants” (Paramount Pictures); “The Twits” (Netflix)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Non-English Language Film
Image Credit: Neon
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon) ***
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
“Sound of Falling” from Germany (Mubi)
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
Alternates: “All That’s Left of You” from Jordan (Watermelon Pictures); “Belén” from Argentina (Amazon MGM Studios); “Nouvelle Vague” from France (Netflix); “Palestine 36” from Palestine (Watermelon Pictures); “The President’s Cake” from Iraq (Sony Pictures Classics); “Sirāt” from Spain (Neon)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Image Credit: Crunchyroll
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie – Infinity Castle” (Crunchyroll)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Superman” (DC Studios)
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Alternates: “The Conjuring: Last Rites” (“Thunderbolts*” (Marvel Studios); “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios); “How to Train Your Dragon” (Universal Pictures); “Jurassic World: Rebirth” (Universal Pictures); “Lilo and Stitch” (Walt Disney Pictures); “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures); “Thunderbolts*” (Marvel Studios)