Heading into the final full weekend of regular-season games, Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Georgia are the top four teams in the College Football Playoff Top 25 released Tuesday night.
There was little movement in the CFP selection committee’s latest rankings, after every team ranked in the top 14 that played in Week 13 won.
Texas Tech remained No. 5, followed by Oregon, which jumped Ole Miss after beating USC.
Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Alabama rounded out the top 10.
Ole Miss is facing the unusual situation of not knowing whether head coach Lane Kiffin will still be with the team in the postseason. Kiffin is a candidate for open jobs at LSU and Florida, and Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter said last week a decision on Kiffin’s future is expected the Saturday after Friday’s Egg Bowl against Mississippi State.
Committee chairman Hunter Yurachek, Arkansas’ athletic director, said there was no discussion among the 12-person panel about Kiffin’s situation and that Kiffin not coaching the team in the CFP would not be factored into the Rebels’ ranking if he does leave.
“We would not have seen the team play without a coach,” Yurachek said on ESPN.
BYU held at No. 11, but Miami and Utah switched spots, with the Hurricanes moving up a spot to No. 12 and the Utes slipping to No. 13 after Utah needed a wild comeback at home to beat Kansas State.
Vanderbilt is 14th, and Michigan moved up three spots to No. 15 ahead of its rivalry weekend game against No. 1 Ohio State. Texas moved up a spot to No. 16. The Longhorns play No. 3 Texas A&M on Friday night.
Miami remains the highest-ranked ACC team, but the Hurricanes have a difficult path to play in the conference championship game. The other ranked ACC teams are Virginia at No. 18, SMU at No. 21, Pitt (which hosts Miami on Saturday) at No. 22 and Georgia Tech at No. 23.
The highest-ranked team from a non-Power 4 conference is Tulane from the American at No. 24.
The five highest-ranked conference champions by the selection committee are guaranteed spots in the 12-team playoff. Heading into rivalry weekend, only one Football Bowl Subdivision conference title game participant has been determined: James Madison has clinched the Sun Belt East.
Ostensibly, if your team has a chance to win a conference, it can probably lay claim to being in contention to make the CFP.
Let’s take a look by conference at the 30 teams still alive — even if only barely — in the Playoff race, and which of those teams have a reasonable chance to receive consideration for an at-large bid.
(Sorry, MAC and Conference USA, but we can’t stretch our imaginations that thin.)
ACC (6): Virginia, SMU, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Miami, Duke.
Wait, Duke? The Blue Devils are 6-5 but 5-2 in the ACC, and with a victory over Wake Forest on Saturday and a few upsets in front of them, Duke can tiebreaker its way into the conference title game. A Duke ACC championship would open a debate that James Madison (10-1) and its fans are dying to have — assuming the Dukes win out.
In play for an at-large: Miami, No. 23 Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets would have to beat Georgia to force their way into the discussion.
Probably in no matter what happens this weekend: None.
Big Ten (4): Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan.
In play for an at-large: All of the above. Michigan beating Ohio State changes everything about the Wolverines’ good-but-far-from-excellent season.
Probably in no matter what happens this weekend: Ohio State, Indiana. The Ducks would be best off avoiding falling into a crowd of 10-2-or-better teams that could include Miami and Notre Dame, five from the SEC and the loser of the Big 12 title game. Not to mention maybe Michigan and Georgia Tech with shiny new top-five victories.
Big 12 (4): Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Arizona State.
In play for an at-large: Texas Tech, BYU and Utah. We’re giving the Utes all the benefit of the doubt, but it will probably take four or five significant upsets to get them in as an at-large.
Probably in no matter what happens this weekend: Texas Tech. A Big 12 title game matching 11-1 Texas Tech and 11-1 BYU — a strong possibility — absolutely sets up the conference to get two teams in. The Cougars, though, are living much closer to the bubble.
SEC (7): Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Texas.
In play for an at-large: All of the above. We can feel your anger reading this, non-SEC fans.
Probably in no matter what happens this weekend: Texas A&M, Georgia. Here’s the flip side of the above. Only the Aggies and probably the Bulldogs can rest easy heading into Selection Sunday if they get upset this weekend. The rest would play their way onto the bubble, if not simply out, if they trip up against rivals. As for Texas, which can do no better than 9-3 even with a win against Texas A&M, the Longhorns would still need help to have a case to receive a bid. But we’ll allow the discussion.
American (5): North Texas, Tulane, Navy, South Florida, East Carolina.
The winner of the American is probably getting into the Playoff as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, and these are the teams still alive to play for the title.
In play for an at-large: None.
Mountain West (2): San Diego State, UNLV.
We’re going to give the Mountain West teams with a chance to win the league at 11-2 a slim chance to have a bid fall to them if all hell breaks loose in the American and Sun Belt.
In play for an at-large: None.
Sun Belt (1): James Madison. The Dukes will argue to be in ahead of the American champion if they finish 12-1. They’re probably not winning that argument unless the American champion has three losses. And there will be a Dukes > Duke campaign if the Blue Devils win the ACC.
In play for an at-large: None
Independents (1): Notre Dame. The Irish can’t lose to woeful Stanford this weekend and expect to get in, and they are probably a little less than a lock to make the field if they do run their winning streak to 10 games. Notre Dame is among several teams this weekend that should be rooting against Michigan’s and Georgia Tech’s ability to clutter the picture.